109
FXUS61 KOKX 271244
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
744 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front pushes north of the area this morning followed by a
cold front that pushes through this evening. Weak high pressure
builds in tonight, lingering into tomorrow. Low pressure passes to
our north Saturday sending another warm front our way Friday night
followed by another cold front midday into afternoon Saturday. High
pressure builds in from the west for the rest of the weekend
into early next week. The high pressure moves offshore towards
the middle of next week, followed by an approaching strong
frontal system thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong LLJ is sending a warm front through early this morning.
Lows have already been achieved now that a warm front is advancing.
Much of this rain located along and north of the warm front boundary
will clear the area this morning, following the warm front north. We
may see a brief reprieve with only isolated showers before showers
return as a prefrontal trough pushes in mid/late this morning into
the early afternoon. A last round of rain is expected as the cold
front pushes through late this afternoon into the evening.
Overall, expecting less than a tenth of an inch of QPF this morning
through the evening for southern areas, such as Long Island. Areas
in the interior should still see amounts above 0.10" but likely no
more than 0.25".
Winds are expected to increase later this morning into the early
afternoon from the SW before the cold front arrives with peak wind
gusts along the coast reach close to 30 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds clear and things dry out early tonight as the cold front
exits east and high pressure begins to settle in. Lows will be in
the mid/upper-30s tonight with some slight cold air advection from
the west, but these temps are still above average.
W/WNW winds will pick up closer to daybreak on Friday as the
pressure gradient from the low departing over the Canadian Maritimes
increases. Winds eventually relax as high pressure becomes more
centered over the area Friday afternoon, weakening the pressure
gradient. Highs on Friday will be a little cooler than previous days
in the 40s.
Heights drop Friday night into Saturday as a longwave trough
approaches from the west. An Alberta Clipper Low located over the
Great Lakes Friday night eventually passes to our east and northeast
on Saturday. This low brings another warm front through Friday night
and a cold front Saturday, sometime around the midday timeframe,
based on the latest model guidance.
Forcing looks best with warm air advection and positive vorticity
advection Friday night for precipitation. Better chances for
precipitation are in the interior with only slight chances towards
the southern part of the area, given the distance from the low and
the best forcing. Its possible we see a rain-snow mix in the
interior Friday night before temps warm, but most should see just
rain.
The cold front, which looks to arrive midday Saturday, has much
lower chances for precipitation given that model guidance has dry
air filtering in before the cold front`s arrival. Saturday may stay
dry for most, with only slight chances for rain in the interior.
Temperatures cool Saturday afternoon and evening following the
passage of the cold front as a longwave trough aloft settles over
the northeast with drying air.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points
* Significant temperature decrease Saturday night with lows by
Sunday morning in the teens to mid 20s.
* Below normal highs Sunday and Monday staying in the 30s on average.
* Temperatures trending warmer for midweek, returning to above
normal.
* Heavy rain possibility for midweek system next week.
Mid level trough remains over the region for the rest of the
weekend. The trough moves east of the region Monday. Ridging takes
over through midweek and then goes offshore. Deep trough
approaches Wednesday into Wednesday night next week.
Dry conditions prevail for Saturday night through early next week
with high pressure gaining more control. Strengthening frontal
system approaches for midweek as high pressure moves farther
offshore.
Precipitation chances return to the forecast for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. This will be all in form of rain.
POPs are already pretty high with this event, a strong incoming
frontal system. Lots of meridional southerly flow ahead of it, so
rain showers could be heavy at times. Still too early for exact
timing and rainfall amounts. However, LREF model precipitable
water increases to near 1 inch with GFS showing values a little
above 1 inch for Wednesday next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will continue to approach the region, eventually
moving through by late morning. A cold front will approach late
in the afternoon and move through the area early to mid evening.
A greater coverage of rain showers is expected after daybreak
for the morning and afternoon. Rain showers will be tapering
off into early this evening.
Period of MVFR this morning and possibly this afternoon with
otherwise a mainly VFR TAF period.
Winds becoming more SE and eventually become more SW this
afternoon. More westerly winds tonight. Gusts up to to 20 kt
today, mainly in the afternoon, continue into this evening.
Gusts subside overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Rain showers and MVFR timing could vary a few hours from TAF.
Mainly VFR conditions could very well prevail.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Mainly VFR. WNW winds G20kt daytime.
Saturday: VFR. S-SW winds daytime, becoming W-NW late day and at
night. Gusts up to near 20 kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring SCA
conditions to the ocean waters Thursday with gusts 25-30 kt and and
seas building to 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, expect marginal SCA conditions
across the eastern bays, eastern sound (east of the CT River),and
Great South Bay during the daytime hours. Winds diminish in the
evening, but seas will remain high.
Small craft conditions should carry though a good portion of Friday
with ocean seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft as any small craft gusts on
the ocean diminish by afternoon. A brief period of sub advisory
conditions is likely late Friday afternoon and evening before small
craft conditions return as a southerly flow increases into Saturday
morning. Small craft seas will be in place on the ocean Saturday
with marginal small craft gusts likely on a portion of the non-ocean
waters.
Long term, Saturday night through Monday night, non-ocean zones
below SCA. Ocean SCA conditions probable Saturday night into Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday night, sub-SCA conditions forecast for
all waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through early next week. Too much uncertainty for
any specific rain amounts or potential impacts regarding middle of
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some localized minor coastal flooding this morning with high
tide in portions of the Long Island South Shore Bays as well as
parts of Western LI Shorelines along SW Connecticut. Coastal
flood statements out to address this. Total water level
forecasts forecast to just touch minor coastal flood benchmarks
in these aforementioned areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
afternoon for ANZ340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM