576
FXUS61 KOKX 271431
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
931 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front pushes north of the area this morning followed by a
cold front that pushes through this evening. Weak high pressure
builds in tonight, lingering into tomorrow. Low pressure passes to
our north Saturday sending another warm front our way Friday night
followed by another cold front midday into afternoon Saturday. High
pressure builds in from the west for the rest of the weekend into
early next week. The high pressure moves offshore towards the
middle of next week, followed by an approaching strong frontal
system thereafter.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A warm front extended from the LI Sound to NYC at 14Z. Best
chances for rain N and W of the front this mrng before the front
gets into MA. Additional chances with the cdfnt this aftn and
eve, although instability is lacking. Increased pops to
categorical across wrn Orange County.

Overall, expecting less than a tenth of an inch of QPF through
the evening for southern areas, such as Long Island. Areas in
the interior should still see amounts above 0.10" but likely no
more than 0.25".

Winds are expected to increase later this morning into the early
afternoon from the SW before the cold front arrives with peak wind
gusts along the coast reach close to 30 mph.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds clear and things dry out early tonight as the cold front
exits east and high pressure begins to settle in. Lows will be in
the mid/upper-30s tonight with some slight cold air advection from
the west, but these temps are still above average.

W/WNW winds will pick up closer to daybreak on Friday as the
pressure gradient from the low departing over the Canadian Maritimes
increases. Winds eventually relax as high pressure becomes more
centered over the area Friday afternoon, weakening the pressure
gradient. Highs on Friday will be a little cooler than previous days
in the 40s.

Heights drop Friday night into Saturday as a longwave trough
approaches from the west. An Alberta Clipper Low located over the
Great Lakes Friday night eventually passes to our east and northeast
on Saturday. This low brings another warm front through Friday night
and a cold front Saturday, sometime around the midday timeframe,
based on the latest model guidance.

Forcing looks best with warm air advection and positive vorticity
advection Friday night for precipitation. Better chances for
precipitation are in the interior with only slight chances towards
the southern part of the area, given the distance from the low and
the best forcing. Its possible we see a rain-snow mix in the
interior Friday night before temps warm, but most should see just
rain.

The cold front, which looks to arrive midday Saturday, has much
lower chances for precipitation given that model guidance has dry
air filtering in before the cold front`s arrival. Saturday may stay
dry for most, with only slight chances for rain in the interior.

Temperatures cool Saturday afternoon and evening following the
passage of the cold front as a longwave trough aloft settles over
the northeast with drying air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points

* Significant temperature decrease Saturday night with lows by
  Sunday morning in the teens to mid 20s.

* Below normal highs Sunday and Monday staying in the 30s on average.

* Temperatures trending warmer for midweek, returning to above
  normal.

* Heavy rain possibility for midweek system next week.

Mid level trough remains over the region for the rest of the
weekend. The trough moves east of the region Monday. Ridging takes
over through midweek and then goes offshore. Deep trough
approaches Wednesday into Wednesday night next week.

Dry conditions prevail for Saturday night through early next week
with high pressure gaining more control. Strengthening frontal
system approaches for midweek as high pressure moves farther
offshore.

Precipitation chances return to the forecast for Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. This will be all in form of rain.

POPs are already pretty high with this event, a strong incoming
frontal system. Lots of meridional southerly flow ahead of it, so
rain showers could be heavy at times. Still too early for exact
timing and rainfall amounts. However, LREF model precipitable
water increases to near 1 inch with GFS showing values a little
above 1 inch for Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A warm front continues to move through the terminals this
morning. A cold front then passes through this evening.

Mostly VFR. Some MVFR vsbys and cigs at times mainly this
afternoon in heavier showers.

S winds eventually become more SW this afternoon, then westerly
tonight. Gusts up to to 20 kt today, mainly in the afternoon,
continue into this evening. Gusts subside overnight.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Rain showers and tempo MVFR timing could vary a few hours from
TAF. Mainly VFR conditions could very well prevail.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Mainly VFR. WNW winds G20kt daytime.

Saturday: VFR. S-SW winds daytime, becoming W-NW late day and at
night. Gusts up to near 20 kt.

Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring SCA
conditions to the ocean waters today with gusts 25-30 kt and
and seas building to 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, expect marginal SCA
conditions across the eastern bays, eastern sound (east of the
CT River),and Great South Bay during the daytime hours. Winds
diminish in the evening, but seas will remain high.

Small craft conditions should carry though a good portion of Friday
with ocean seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft as any small craft gusts on
the ocean diminish by afternoon. A brief period of sub advisory
conditions is likely late Friday afternoon and evening before small
craft conditions return as a southerly flow increases into Saturday
morning. Small craft seas will be in place on the ocean Saturday
with marginal small craft gusts likely on a portion of the non-ocean
waters.

Long term, Saturday night through Monday night, non-ocean zones
below SCA. Ocean SCA conditions probable Saturday night into Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday night, sub-SCA conditions forecast for
all waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through early next week. Too much uncertainty for
any specific rain amounts or potential impacts regarding middle of
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some localized minor coastal flooding this morning with high
tide in portions of the Long Island South Shore Bays as well as
parts of Western LI Shorelines along SW Connecticut. Coastal
flood statements out to address this. Total water level
forecasts forecast to just touch minor coastal flood benchmarks
in these aforementioned areas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...