881
FXUS61 KOKX 272138
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
438 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold frontal passage occurs this evening. A weak low
approaches Friday night. A strong cold front passes through the
area Saturday afternoon, followed by building high pressure into
Monday. Deepening low pressure over the mid section of the
country will then lift out of the central Plains on Tuesday,
passing well north and west of the area Wednesday into Thursday.
The associated warm front will lift across the area Wednesday,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front was analyzed from cntrl PA nwd thru Upstate NY at
20Z. This front will track ewd thru this eve. Initial rains
ahead of the sys will continue to exit the area into the early
eve. Although there will be a bit of a dry slot ahead of the
approaching front, there is a little instability noted in the
modeling, so a few additional shwrs may trigger preceding the
cdfnt. Clearing out thereafter with W flow.
Temps tngt close to the NBM. This is banking on winds decoupling at
least briefly in the early mrng invof the outlying areas. If this
doesn`t happen, expect lows in some of these sheltered areas to be
about 5 degrees warmer than fcst.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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High pres ridges across the area on Fri ahead of an Alberta Clipping
dropping down then the Great Lakes. The low is modeled to track into
nrn New England, so this puts the area in the arm sector and out of
the region of best lift and dynamics. As a result, only some low
pops in the fcst attm, with the highest chances across nrn areas of
the cwa.
Mainly light rain as the pcpn type, but there could be some wet
flakes at times across the far nrn tier. No accums expected.
Based on a well mixed wly flow on Fri, did increase wind gusts abv
the NBM to about 25 mph thru the day.
Temps Fri and Fri ngt close to the NBM with some local adjustments
made.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Points
* Significant temperature decrease Saturday night with lows by
Sunday morning in the teens to lower 20s.
* Well below normal Sunday and Monday with highs only in the
30s.
* Temperatures trending warmer for midweek, returning to above
normal.
* Heavy rain possibility for the middle of next week.
Stayed close to the NBM guidance during this period as global
models are in decent agreement. However, made some minor
adjustments in timing and speed based on trends in 12Z globals
and ensembles.
An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada south into the
Mid Atlantic states will send a strong polar cold front through
the area Saturday afternoon. Any showers will be brief and
mainly across the interior. The core of cold air will stay well
to the north across eastern Canada with 85h temps of -30C.
However, there will be a period Saturday night into Sunday where
85h temps get as low as -15 to -20c. After highs in the lower
to mid 50s Saturday, temperatures will quickly drop behind the
front with lows by daybreak Sunday into the teens to lower 20s.
Gusty NW winds up to 25 mph will follow Saturday night and then
gradually subside heading into Sunday as high pressure builds in
from the west. Highs Sunday will only get into the upper 20s to
mid 30s, warmest across the coast. With no upstream blocking
over the north Atlantic, the airmass will be fleeting with the
upper trough quickly lifting offshore by Monday.
Expect a significant warmup heading into midweek as a southern
branch storm system emerges from the southern Plains Tuesday,
heading up through the Great Lakes Wednesday and into eastern
Canada by Thursday. Ahead of it will be a period of large scale
warm advection Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. The system looks to have a good
feed of moisture feed from both the Gulf and Atlantic. This
combined with what shows up as deep-layered lift at this time
should be able to produce some heavy warm conveyor belt rains.
Keep in mind, this is almost a week out and way too early to be
specific with rainfall amounts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front passes through this evening.
VFR. Showers for the next few hours east of the city terminals. SW
winds becoming WSW early this evening, then WNW by midnight. Gusts
around 20kt for a few hours this evening. Gusts then return near 14z
Friday from the WNW 20-25kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Any showers that occur during the remainder of the day will be brief
with conditions remaining VFR. Occasional gusts around 20kt for KLGA
through at least 00z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday afternoon: VFR. WNW winds gust 20kt early.
Saturday: VFR. WNW winds gust 25-30kt PM.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds gust 15-20kt.
Monday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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The strongest swly flow is exiting the area, so the SCA on the
protected waters has been canceled. There could be an ocnl gust
to around 25 kt right behind the front. Otherwise, increasing W
winds and seas remaining aoa 5 ft on the ocean thru Fri ngt, so
the SCA was extended there. Winds mrgnl elsewhere thru the
period, so no advy attm.
SCA conditions continue into Saturday on the ocean waters, mainly
for seas to start. However, a cold frontal passage will be followed
by marginal NW gust to around 25kt Saturday afternoon and night.
Thereafter, high pressure builds in from the west Sunday into
Monday with diminishing winds and seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No issues expected through the middle of next week. There is a
storm system that has the potential to bring some heavy rain
into the area for the middle of next week, however, it`s too
early to be specific with rainfall amounts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW