791
FXUS61 KOKX 280045
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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On the heels of a cold frontal passage, weak high pressure will
build in from the west into Friday, then passes offshore by
evening. A strong cold front passes through the area Saturday
afternoon, followed by building high pressure into Monday.
Deepening low pressure over the mid section of the country will
then lift out of the central Plains on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Cold front along with a few showers will clear eastern LI
within the next hour. Expect a dry westerly flow to develop
with perhaps a few gusts up to 20 kt, especially along the
coast. Skies will gradually clear from west to east overnight.
Lows will remain above normal in the lower 30s inland and the
mid 30s to around 40 at the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pres ridges across the area on Fri ahead of an Alberta Clipping
dropping down then the Great Lakes. The low is modeled to track into
nrn New England, so this puts the area in the arm sector and out of
the region of best lift and dynamics. As a result, only some low
pops in the fcst attm, with the highest chances across nrn areas of
the cwa.
Mainly light rain as the pcpn type, but there could be some wet
flakes at times across the far nrn tier. No accums expected.
Based on a well mixed wly flow on Fri, did increase wind gusts abv
the NBM to about 25 mph thru the day.
Temps Fri and Fri ngt close to the NBM with some local adjustments
made.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Points
* Significant temperature decrease Saturday night with lows by
Sunday morning in the teens to lower 20s.
* Well below normal Sunday and Monday with highs only in the
30s.
* Temperatures trending warmer for midweek, returning to above
normal.
* Heavy rain possibility for the middle of next week.
Stayed close to the NBM guidance during this period as global
models are in decent agreement. However, made some minor
adjustments in timing and speed based on trends in 12Z globals
and ensembles.
An amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada south into the
Mid Atlantic states will send a strong polar cold front through
the area Saturday afternoon. Any showers will be brief and
mainly across the interior. The core of cold air will stay well
to the north across eastern Canada with 85h temps of -30C.
However, there will be a period Saturday night into Sunday where
85h temps get as low as -15 to -20c. After highs in the lower
to mid 50s Saturday, temperatures will quickly drop behind the
front with lows by daybreak Sunday into the teens to lower 20s.
Gusty NW winds up to 25 mph will follow Saturday night and then
gradually subside heading into Sunday as high pressure builds in
from the west. Highs Sunday will only get into the upper 20s to
mid 30s, warmest across the coast. With no upstream blocking
over the north Atlantic, the airmass will be fleeting with the
upper trough quickly lifting offshore by Monday.
Expect a significant warmup heading into midweek as a southern
branch storm system emerges from the southern Plains Tuesday,
heading up through the Great Lakes Wednesday and into eastern
Canada by Thursday. Ahead of it will be a period of large scale
warm advection Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a cold
frontal passage on Thursday. The system looks to have a good
feed of moisture from both the Gulf and Atlantic. This combined
with deep-layered lift would be able to produce some heavy warm
conveyor belt rains. Keep in mind, this is almost a week out
and way too early to be too specific with the details.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front passes through late this evening.
VFR. WSW winds becoming W for the next few hours, then WNW by
midnight. Gusts around 20kt for a few hours at some terminals this
evening, with any gusts ending overnight. Gusts return near 14z
Friday from the WNW 20-25kt before subsiding towards 20-21z.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR. S winds, gusts 15-20kt late.
Saturday: VFR. WNW winds gust 25-30kt PM.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds gust 15-20kt.
Monday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA remains up for the ocean waters through Saturday.
There could be an ocnl gust to around 25 kt right behind the
cold front tonight. Otherwise, increasing W winds and seas
remaining aoa 5 ft on the ocean thru Fri ngt. Winds mrgnl
elsewhere thru the period.
SCA conditions continue into Saturday on the ocean waters, mainly
for seas to start. However, a cold frontal passage will be followed
by marginal NW gust to around 25kt Saturday afternoon and night.
Thereafter, high pressure builds in from the west Sunday into
Monday with diminishing winds and seas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No issues expected at this time. There is a storm system that
has the potential to bring some heavy rain into the area for the
middle of next week, however, it`s too early to be specific
with rainfall amounts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW