150
FXUS61 KOKX 281211
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
711 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure will build from the west through this
afternoon, then pass offshore by evening. A warm front will lift
to the north tonight into Saturday morning, followed by a
strong cold front late Saturday. High pressure then builds in
through Monday, moving off the coast Monday night into Tuesday.
Low pressure will then approach from the Plains states and
impact the area from Tuesday night into Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A shortwave will continue pushing east of the area early this
morning. Weak high pressure builds in through the afternoon.
The air mass is only slightly cooler than recent days with highs
remaining a bit above normal in the middle 40s inland and upper
40s to around 50 closer to the coast/NYC metro.
A much deeper upper trough digs towards the region tonight,
sending a strong clipper low out of the Great Lakes toward
northern New England. This will allow a warm front to begin
pushing north of the area by late tonight and early Saturday
morning. Much of the forcing looks to remain to our north so
think the nighttime hours will be mostly dry. However, cannot
completely rule out a brief shower across the interior closer to
the warm front and stronger forcing. Otherwise, clouds will
increase with the approaching trough. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 30s inland, to the upper 30s and lower 40s closer
to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned warm front continues to lift to the north
Saturday morning. The trailing cold front is progged to move
through in the afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the front,
SW flow increases allowing for a breezy day with gusts 25 to 35
mph. Temperatures will also rise into the lower and middle 50s
for most of the area with potential of upper 50s in the NYC
metro. Some areas could even be a few degrees higher given the
strong SW-W flow ahead of the cold front. Moisture and lift
continue to be limited with the cold front passage, so will only
carry a slight chance away from the coast closer to the
stronger lift.
The cold front passage will bring in a much colder and drier
air mass for Saturday night. Temperatures will drop
significantly into the teens inland and low 20s along the
immediate coast by early Sunday morning. The combination of a
gusty NW flow (20-30 mph) and the colder temperatures will make
it feel like it is in the single digits to around 10 degrees by
early Sunday morning.
Sprawling high pressure will then build towards the area on
Sunday and then settle overhead Sunday night. High temperatures
on Sunday will struggle to rise above 30 degrees inland with
the rest of the area in the lower 30s. These readings are 10-15
degrees below normal for early March. It will remain breezy with
NW wind gusting 20-25 mph, making it feel like it is in the
teens in the afternoon.
Winds weaken Sunday night with the high pressure settling over
the northeast. Mostly clear skies and a continued cold and dry
air mass in place should allow temperatures to fall into the
teens for much of the area. A few of the colder inland locations
could fall into the single digits with the NYC metro falling to
around 20 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Temperatures will moderate quickly, from a few degrees below
normal on Monday to above normal during mid week.
* A long duration moderate to locally rainfall event will occur mid
week with the approach of a frontal system.
Remained close to the NBM guidance during this period as it catches
the overall global model trend. On Mon an upper trough will depart
out over the western Atlantic while broad upper level ridging
arrives from the nation`s mid section, and an embedded shortwave
trough passes well to the south and weakens under the building
ridge. As a result, sfc high pressure over the area on Mon will move
offshore Mon night into Tue, with moderation in temps as heights
rise aloft and a return flow starts to develop Mon night.
A closed low over the western states on Mon will amplify and phase
with northern stream energy as it moves into the Plains on Tue, with
downstream ridge amplification, and a deep sfc low developing and
moving up toward the upper Great Lakes on Wed, sending a leading
warm front toward the area Tue night and through daytime Wed. The
continued return flow and rise in heights aloft should should get
temps on Tue to a few degrees above normal, and then well above
normal on Wed with the warm frontal passage. The front will also
bring chances for light rain Tue night, then a moderate rainfall Wed
with the warm frontal passage, continuing into Wed night via the
warm conveyor belt and deep layer ahead of an approaching cold
front. Did not add thunder to the forecast that far out in time but
can`t rule out at least some elevated convection/downpours late day
Wed into Wed evening with blended 00Z GFS/ECMWF TT indices
approaching 50 and SWEAT indices 250-300 in a moist air mass with PW
over 1.25 inches. Beyond those signals, this is still 5 days out and
still too early to offer more exact details.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR as weak high pressure builds from the west through this
afternoon, then passes offshore by evening.
W-WNW winds prevail today. Gusts 20-25 kt return 13Z-14Z for
most terminals, then subside toward 20Z-21Z while backing to the
SW. Winds then back S tonight and should increase to 10-15G20kt
at some terminals mainly after midnight with warm fropa.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. SW winds G20kt in the morning, becoming W
G25-30kt in the afternoon, then NW G25kt at night.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Marginal gusts to 25 kt are expected on the ocean through this
afternoon with seas 5-6 ft. Winds on the non-ocean waters
should remain closer to 20 kt. Winds briefly weaken below SCA
levels tonight as ocean seas subside to 4-5 ft. SW winds then
increase on Saturday ahead of a cold front bringing gusts on all
waters to 25-30 kt. Ocean seas will also build to 5-7 ft. The
cold front passage Saturday afternoon and evening will shift
winds to the NW and remain around 25 kt before subsiding
overnight into Sunday morning. Ocean seas should also subside
below 5 ft on Sunday. The SCA on the ocean remains in effect
through Saturday evening and may need to be extended into a
portion of Saturday night. Have also issued an SCA on the LI
Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor for Saturday late morning into
early evening. Conditions should be below SCA levels for Sunday
night with high pressure building over the waters.
Quiet Mon and Tue with high pressure generally in control.
Increasing S flow during mid week could bring 5-ft seas to
the ocean waters Tue night, and SCA cond to all waters on Wed
with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas building to 6-8 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system could bring about an inch of rain on average
from Tue night into Thu. Potential for locally higher amts
exists especially Wed into Wed evening.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued coastal flood statement for S Fairfield/Westchester for
tonight`s high tide cycle close to midnight as fcst water
levels at the Stamford and Bridgeport gauges just barely touch
minor flood thresholds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG