520
FXUS61 KOKX 281825
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build from the west through this
afternoon, then pass offshore by evening. A warm front will lift
to the north tonight into Saturday morning, followed by a
strong cold front late Saturday. High pressure then builds in
through Monday, moving off the coast Monday night into Tuesday.
Low pressure will then approach from the Plains states and
impact the area from Tuesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Increased wind gusts for today with gusts around 25-30kt. No
other changes attm. A shortwave will continue pushing east of
the area early this morning. Weak high pressure builds in
through the afternoon. The air mass is only slightly cooler than
recent days with highs remaining a bit above normal in the
middle 40s inland and upper 40s to around 50 closer to the
coast/NYC metro.
A much deeper upper trough digs towards the region tonight,
sending a strong clipper low out of the Great Lakes toward
northern New England. This will allow a warm front to begin
pushing north of the area by late tonight and early Saturday
morning. Much of the forcing looks to remain to our north so
think the nighttime hours will be mostly dry. However, cannot
completely rule out a brief shower across the interior closer to
the warm front and stronger forcing. Otherwise, clouds will
increase with the approaching trough. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 30s inland, to the upper 30s and lower 40s closer
to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned warm front continues to lift to the north
Saturday morning. The trailing cold front is progged to move
through in the afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the front,
SW flow increases allowing for a breezy day with gusts 25 to 35
mph. Temperatures will also rise into the lower and middle 50s
for most of the area with potential of upper 50s in the NYC
metro. Some areas could even be a few degrees higher given the
strong SW-W flow ahead of the cold front. Moisture and lift
continue to be limited with the cold front passage, so will only
carry a slight chance away from the coast closer to the
stronger lift.
The cold front passage will bring in a much colder and drier
air mass for Saturday night. Temperatures will drop
significantly into the teens inland and low 20s along the
immediate coast by early Sunday morning. The combination of a
gusty NW flow (20-30 mph) and the colder temperatures will make
it feel like it is in the single digits to around 10 degrees by
early Sunday morning.
Sprawling high pressure will then build towards the area on
Sunday and then settle overhead Sunday night. High temperatures
on Sunday will struggle to rise above 30 degrees inland with
the rest of the area in the lower 30s. These readings are 10-15
degrees below normal for early March. It will remain breezy with
NW wind gusting 20-25 mph, making it feel like it is in the
teens in the afternoon.
Winds weaken Sunday night with the high pressure settling over
the northeast. Mostly clear skies and a continued cold and dry
air mass in place should allow temperatures to fall into the
teens for much of the area. A few of the colder inland locations
could fall into the single digits with the NYC metro falling to
around 20 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Temperatures will moderate quickly, from a few degrees below
normal on Monday to above normal during mid week.
* A long duration moderate to locally rainfall event will occur mid
week with the approach of a frontal system.
Remained close to the NBM guidance during this period as it catches
the overall global model trend. On Mon an upper trough will depart
out over the western Atlantic while broad upper level ridging
arrives from the nation`s mid section, and an embedded shortwave
trough passes well to the south and weakens under the building
ridge. As a result, sfc high pressure over the area on Mon will move
offshore Mon night into Tue, with moderation in temps as heights
rise aloft and a return flow starts to develop Mon night.
A closed low over the western states on Mon will amplify and phase
with northern stream energy as it moves into the Plains on Tue, with
downstream ridge amplification, and a deep sfc low developing and
moving up toward the upper Great Lakes on Wed, sending a leading
warm front toward the area Tue night and through daytime Wed. The
continued return flow and rise in heights aloft should should get
temps on Tue to a few degrees above normal, and then well above
normal on Wed with the warm frontal passage. The front will also
bring chances for light rain Tue night, then a moderate rainfall Wed
with the warm frontal passage, continuing into Wed night via the
warm conveyor belt and deep layer ahead of an approaching cold
front. Did not add thunder to the forecast that far out in time but
can`t rule out at least some elevated convection/downpours late day
Wed into Wed evening with blended 00Z GFS/ECMWF TT indices
approaching 50 and SWEAT indices 250-300 in a moist air mass with PW
over 1.25 inches. Beyond those signals, this is still 5 days out and
still too early to offer more exact details.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as weak high pressure builds over the area this afternoon
and passes offshore by early this evening. Low pressure,
passing north of the Great Lakes, impacts the terminals tonight
and Saturday, with a strong cold frontal passage midday into the
afternoon.
W-NW winds through this afternoon gust generally 20-25 kt, and
at times winds may be more northerly, and gust 25 to near 30 kt.
Winds diminish late afternoon into the evening and gusts end, as
winds back to SW. Winds may become light and variable at most
of the TAF sites early this evening, around 00Z, before becoming
S. Southerly gusts develop late tonight. And LLWS becomes
likely 07Z to 11Z/12Z. Winds diminish with the approach of a
cold front Saturday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR. W/NW G25-30 kt, around G25 kt at
night.
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR. Chance of rain showers Tuesday
night with MVFR.
Wednesday: IFR to LIFR with rain showers. Winds S G20-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA has been issued for all waters til 21Z with wind gusts in
the 25-30kt range, particularly nearshore. Winds briefly weaken
below SCA levels tonight as ocean seas subside to 4-5 ft. SW
winds then increase on Saturday ahead of a cold front bringing
gusts on all waters to 25-30 kt. Ocean seas will also build to
5-7 ft. The cold front passage Saturday afternoon and evening
will shift winds to the NW and remain around 25 kt before
subsiding overnight into Sunday morning. Ocean seas should also
subside below 5 ft on Sunday. The SCA on the ocean remains in
effect through Saturday evening and may need to be extended into
a portion of Saturday night. Have also issued an SCA on the LI
Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor for Saturday late morning into
early evening. Conditions should be below SCA levels for Sunday
night with high pressure building over the waters.
Quiet Mon and Tue with high pressure generally in control.
Increasing S flow during mid week could bring 5-ft seas to
the ocean waters Tue night, and SCA cond to all waters on Wed
with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas building to 6-8 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system could bring about an inch of rain on average
from Tue night into Thu. Potential for locally higher amts
exists especially Wed into Wed evening.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Issued coastal flood statement for S Fairfield/Westchester for
tonight`s high tide cycle close to midnight as fcst water
levels at the Stamford and Bridgeport gauges just barely touch
minor flood thresholds.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...