705
FXUS61 KOKX 282104
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure passes north of the region tonight, drawing a cold
front through on Saturday. High pressure then builds in through
Monday, moving off the coast Monday night into Tuesday. Low
pressure will then approach from the Plains states and impact
the area from Tuesday night into Thursday. High pressure then
follows on Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Low pres was analyzed over Lake Superior at 18Z. The low will track
ewd tngt across Ontario, reaching Quebec Sat mrng.

Sly flow develops across the local area tngt due to the approaching
low and high pres over the Atlc. The warm front is modeled to remain
near the Canadian border, so moisture will be limited and forcing
minimal. As a result, removed pops for pcpn, and only included
slight chances for a few sprinkles across the nrn portion of the cwa
tngt. Otherwise, increasing clouds and a mixed bl will limit the
diurnal swing. The NBM was followed pretty closely for temps as a
result.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pres to the N will draw a cold front thru the area Sat. Temps
are expected to fall late in the aftn, particularly nwrn areas, with
caa kicking in. It will be a bit windy as well, especially behind
the front with subsidence, aided by evap cooling, resulting in a
well mixed airmass. Increased in gusts to around 30kt for all areas.

As the upr trof comes thru, steepening lapse rates could trigger a
few shwrs across the area. It would not be surprising to see some
graupel mixed in. NBM pops were essentially dry, so had to manually
input the numbers. Went with isold wording for nrn areas where
confidence was higher, and slight chance wording elsewhere. Any
shwrs that develop could produce some wind gusts close to 40 mph
with the evap cooling contribution.

Any pcpn chances end by dark with decreasing instability, and skies
clear. Perhaps some lake clouds bleed in from the NW.

It will remain breezy Sat ngt with caa and unidirectional nwly flow.
This will bring wind chills into the single digits.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Key Points:

* Temperatures will moderate quickly, from a few degrees below
  normal on Monday to above normal during mid week.

* A long duration moderate to locally rainfall event will occur mid
  week with the approach of a frontal system.

Global models are overall good agreement through the period and
therefore stayed close to the NBM guidance, minus some small
timing issues and underperformance of the NBM winds in stronger
flow regimes (particularly W/NW flow).

The upper trough over the Northeast Monday quickly lifts out
into the North Atlantic, while a strong southern branch closed
low tracks across the Four Corners region. The unseasonably
cold airmass in place at the start will be fleeting as a deep-
layered W/SW flow ahead of the southern branch storm system will
become dominant. Temperatures will moderate from highs in the
30s both Sunday and Monday to well into the 50s on Wednesday in
a strong southerly flow. High pressure over the area Monday
retreats offshore as low pressure emerges out into the central
PLains. The low rapidly deepens, tracking northeast across the
Great Lakes on Wednesday and across eastern Canada on Thursday.
Large scale warm advection in a deep-layered southerly flow
ahead of the system will transport both Gulf and Atlantic moisture
into the system with the potential for bands of moderate to
heavy rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. The associated cold
front passes through Thursday morning with lingering showers
possible through the day with the upper trough passing overhead.
Airmass behind cold front brings lows back down below freezing
Thursday night with highs in the 40s, closer to normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR.

High pressure over the area moves offshore early this evening. Low
pressure, passing north of the Great Lakes, impacts the terminals
tonight and Saturday, with a strong cold frontal passage midday into
the afternoon.

W-NW winds back to W/SW late afternoon into this evening as high
pressure moves offshore. Gusts around 20 kt will be ending toward
sunset. Winds may become light and variable at most of the TAF sites
early this evening, around 00Z, before becoming S.
Southerly gusts develop late tonight. And LLWS becomes likely 07Z to
11Z/12Z. Winds diminish with the approach of a cold front Saturday
morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon: VFR. W/NW G25-30 kt, around G25 kt at night.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR. Chance of rain showers Tuesday night
with MVFR.

Wednesday: IFR to LIFR with rain showers. Winds S G20-30 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds will decrease quickly early this eve, so the sca has been
canceled on the protected waters. On the ocean, seas will remain
abv 5 ft thru tngt. All waters are at sca lvls Sat and Sat ngt.

SCA conditions may linger into Sunday in a diminishing NW flow
as high pressure builds in from the west. Increasing S flow
ahead of midweek storm system will likely bring 5-ft seas to
the ocean waters Tue night, and SCA conditions to all waters on
Wednesday and possibly a gale for the ocean with gusts 30-35
kt. Seas on the ocean may build in excess of 10 ft Wednesday
night.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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A frontal system could bring about an inch of rain on average
from Tuesday night into Thursday. Potential for locally higher
amounts exists especially Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A coastal flood statement remains up for S Fairfield and
Westchester for tonight`s high tide cycle close to midnight as
fcst water levels at the Stamford and Bridgeport gauges may just
barely touch minor flood thresholds.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG/JMC