okx-afd on 2025-02-28

738
FXUS61 KOKX 010017
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
717 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure passes north of the area Saturday, drawing a cold
front through in the afternoon. High pressure then builds in
through Monday, moving off the coast Monday night into Tuesday.
Low pressure will then approach from the Plains states and
impact the area from Tuesday night into Thursday. High pressure
then follows on Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure over the Great Lakes tonight tracks into eastern
Canada. Southerly flow develops and strengthens ahead of the
system. The associated warm front will remain well north and
west of the area with only a slight chance of sprinkles across
the far interior. Otherwise, increasing clouds with above normal
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pres to the N will draw a cold front thru the area Sat. Temps
are expected to fall late in the aftn, particularly nwrn areas, with
caa kicking in. It will be a bit windy as well, especially behind
the front with subsidence, aided by evap cooling, resulting in a
well mixed airmass. Increased in gusts to around 30kt for all areas.

As the upr trof comes thru, steepening lapse rates could trigger a
few shwrs across the area. It would not be surprising to see some
graupel mixed in. NBM pops were essentially dry, so had to manually
input the numbers. Went with isold wording for nrn areas where
confidence was higher, and slight chance wording elsewhere. Any
shwrs that develop could produce some wind gusts close to 40 mph
with the evap cooling contribution.

Any pcpn chances end by dark with decreasing instability, and skies
clear. Perhaps some lake clouds bleed in from the NW.

It will remain breezy Sat ngt with caa and unidirectional nwly flow.
This will bring wind chills into the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will moderate quickly, from a few degrees below
  normal on Monday to above normal during mid week.

* A long duration moderate to locally rainfall event will occur mid
  week with the approach of a frontal system.

Global models are overall good agreement through the period and
therefore stayed close to the NBM guidance, minus some small
timing issues and underperformance of the NBM winds in stronger
flow regimes (particularly W/NW flow).

The upper trough over the Northeast Monday quickly lifts out
into the North Atlantic, while a strong southern branch closed
low tracks across the Four Corners region. The unseasonably
cold airmass in place at the start will be fleeting as a deep-
layered W/SW flow ahead of the southern branch storm system will
become dominant. Temperatures will moderate from highs in the
30s both Sunday and Monday to well into the 50s on Wednesday in
a strong southerly flow. High pressure over the area Monday
retreats offshore as low pressure emerges out into the central
PLains. The low rapidly deepens, tracking northeast across the
Great Lakes on Wednesday and across eastern Canada on Thursday.
Large scale warm advection in a deep-layered southerly flow
ahead of the system will transport both Gulf and Atlantic moisture
into the system with the potential for bands of moderate to
heavy rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. The associated cold
front passes through Thursday morning with lingering showers
possible through the day with the upper trough passing overhead.
Airmass behind cold front brings lows back down below freezing
Thursday night with highs in the 40s, closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR.

Weak high pressure moves offshore this evening. Low pressure passes
north of the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday and drags a strong
cold frontal passage midday into the afternoon.

Winds will be out of the SW up to 10 kt at most terminals through
mid evening, with primarily light and variable at some outlying
terminals. For late this evening into the overnight the winds then
become S. Southerly gusts develop overnight followed by LLWS
becoming likely from 07Z to 11Z/12Z. The winds then increase ahead
of the cold front out of the SW Saturday morning before switching to
the W immediately behind the front. The winds increase further
immediately behind the cold front Saturday afternoon with gusts to
around 30 kt, with some peak gusts to 35 kt possible. The period of
peak gusts is likely to be from 19z to 22z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected. Gusts may need to be adjusted slightly
for the mid to late afternoon on Saturday.


.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: VFR. W/NW G25-30 kt, around G25 kt at night.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR. Chance of rain showers Tuesday night
with MVFR.

Wednesday: IFR to LIFR with rain showers. Winds S G20-30 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA conditions develop across all waters by Saturday morning in
a strengthening southerly ahead of low pressure. This continues
through Saturday night in a NW flow behind a cold frontal passage.
Seas on the ocean will build to 5 to 9 ft on the ocean waters
Saturday morning, before gradually subsiding into Sunday.

SCA conditions may linger into Sunday in a diminishing NW flow
as high pressure builds in from the west. Increasing S flow
ahead of midweek storm system will likely bring 5-ft seas to
the ocean waters Tue night, and SCA conditions to all waters on
Wednesday and possibly a gale for the ocean with gusts 30-35
kt. Seas on the ocean may build in excess of 10 ft Wednesday
night.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system could bring about an inch of rain on average
from Tuesday night into Thursday. Potential for locally higher
amounts exists especially Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement remains up for S Fairfield and
Westchester for tonight`s high tide cycle close to midnight as
fcst water levels at the Stamford and Bridgeport gauges may just
barely touch minor flood thresholds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...