251
FXUS61 KOKX 011444
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
944 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this afternoon. High pressure
will then build in through Monday, moving off the coast by
Tuesday. As strong low pressure moves northeast toward the
upper Great Lakes, a warm front will approach Tuesday night and
move through Wednesday morning, followed by an cold front
Wednesday night. Secondary low pressure may develop nearby on
Thursday and pass east of of New England on Friday as high
pressure attempts to build from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor adjustments to temps and dewpoints to better reflect
current conditions. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.
Low pressure passes to the north today dragging a cold front
through the area this afternoon. The cold front should begin
moving through the Lower Hudson Valley shortly after midday
before sweeping across the rest of the area by sunset. A brief
shower is possible with the frontal passage this afternoon.
Breezy conditions are expected ahead of the front along with
temperatures rising into the lower and middle 50s across the
area. With the flow becoming SW right ahead of the front, some
locations in the NYC metro could reach the upper 50s to around
60.
Once the cold front passes, temperatures will begin to fall and
NW winds will increase as the cold advection gets underway.
Cannot completely rule out a trailing shower with a few wet
snowflakes or graupel before sundown well inland. Temperatures
will then continue to fall through the rest of the night as 850
mb temperatures drop down to a range from -16C to -20C by
sunrise Sunday morning. The strongest winds will likely occur
the first half of the night with sustained speeds 15-25 mph with
gusts 30-35 mph. There could be a few gusts close to 40 mph
immediately behind the cold front passage. Gusts should settle
to 20-25 mph by day break Sunday. Lows look to range from the
mid teens inland to around 20 closer to the coast. The winds
will make it feel like it is in the single digits early Sunday
morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main story for this period will be unseasonably cold
conditions. High pressure continues to build towards the area on
Sunday, but there will be enough of a pressure gradient to
support another blustery day. NW winds are likely to gust 20-25
mph into the afternoon. Guidance has been trending colder over
the last several cycles, which makes sense given the anomalous
nature of the air mass. 850 mb temperatures are progged to be
close to the lowest observed across the area on March 2 per the
SPC Sounding Climatology. A full day of early March sunshine in
combination with downsloping NW flow will give temperatures a
bit of a boost from the morning temperatures. Afternoon highs
should reach the mid-upper 20s inland and lower 30s closer to
the coast. The current forecast has the NYC metro and much of
Long Island briefly rising above freezing, but it is possible
temperatures do not exceed 32 degrees. Wind chills will be in
the teens to low 20s in the afternoon.
The high pressure will settle over the northeast Sunday night.
Outlying areas should decouple, but coastal areas may still have
a light breeze through the night with the center of the high
still to the west. Lows will range from around 10 inland to the
middle and upper teens closer to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:
* Temperatures will be on the mild side starting Tuesday
through Thursday.
* A long duration moderate to locally heavy rainfall event will
take place from Tuesday night into Thursday with the approach
of a frontal system associated with strong low pressure
moving through the upper Great Lakes.
Global models remain in close enough agreement to stay close to
the NBM guidance with some adjustments.
The high remains overhead on Monday before moving offshore by
early Tuesday morning. Some moderation of the air mass is likely
allowing temperatures to reach the middle and upper 30s for
highs on Monday. Lows on Monday night will also be warmer than
Sunday night and generally in the 20s across the region.
A deep closed low over the Plains states will move E to the mid
Mississippi Valley by Wed AM, while downstream ridging builds
over the area, with sfc high pressure moving farther out into
the Atlantic. Return flow and rising heights aloft will lead to
a milder day, with temps a good 10-15 degrees warmer than those
of Monday, from the mid 40s to lower 50s. A leading warm front
will approach Tue night and move through Wed AM with some light
to moderate rain. Large scale warm advection in a deep-layered S
flow after warm fropa will continue to transport Gulf and
Atlantic moisture into the area, with the potential for bands of
moderate to heavy rain Wed into Wed evening, with slight chance
of thunder. High temps on Wed should be even milder, with
widespread 50s per NBM 75th percentile and possibly reaching 60
in parts of NE NJ.
The associated cold front will pass through late Wed night into
Thu morning, with lingering showers possible through the day
especially over S CT and Long Island with the upper trough
passing overhead. ECMWF indicates possible secondary low
formation nearby, which could lead to more prolonged precip
mainly S CT and Long Island (rain mixing with or changing to
snow) and strong NW winds throughout Thu night into Fri as the
low pulls E of New England. Fri should be mainly dry and brisk,
with temps closer to average.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as low pressure passes to the north today, dragging a strong
cold across this afternoon.
S winds under 10 kt become SW 10-15G20 kt by late morning ahead of
the approaching cold front. Winds then shift W and increasing
further immediately after fropa. Gusts around 30 kt expected after
fropa until about 23Z-24Z, with some peak gusts up to 35 kt are
possible from about 19Z-22Z. It is possible these stronger winds
could last longer into this evening, otherwise winds veer NW 15-
20G25-30kt this evening, diminishing slightly after midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts up to 35 kt may be possible from about 19Z-23Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Chance of rain. MVFR cond possible.
Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR cond expected. S winds G20-30 kt
and LLWS. Slight chance of a tstm in the evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue on the ocean through this afternoon
and develop on the Sound, Bays, and NY Harbor late this morning
due to strengthening southerly flow. A cold front passes across
the waters late this afternoon shifting the winds to the NW and
increasing wind gusts to around 30 kt on the Sound, Bay, and
Harbor and around 35 kt on the ocean. The strongest winds on the
ocean look to occur in a short period generally from 6pm this
evening through 1am Sunday. Have issued a gale warning for this
time period on the ocean. An isolated gale gust cannot be ruled
out on the non-ocean waters, but have held off on a gale warning
for now. Elevated ocean seas are expected today, 5-8 ft,
continuing into tonight before subsiding on Sunday. Waves on the
Sound may also reach 3-4 ft tonight. Winds will also subside
below SCA on the non-ocean Sunday morning, but could linger into
early afternoon on the ocean. Conditions will be below SCA
levels late Sunday through Monday night with high pressure
building over the waters. Light freezing spray is expected late
tonight through Sunday.
SCA cond likely to develop on all waters daytime Wed as S flow
increases, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas building from 2-3
ft early in the morning to 6-8 ft by evening. Some minimal gale
force gusts up to 35 are possible on the ocean Wed night as
seas build further, reaching 9-12 ft by late Wed night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system should bring about 1.0-1.5 inches of rain from
Tue night into Thu. Potential for locally higher amounts closer
to 2 inches exists with any heavier rain bands Wed
afternoon/evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$