272
FXUS61 KOKX 012041
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will then build in Sunday through Monday, moving
off the coast by Tuesday. As strong low pressure tracks toward
the Great Lakes, an associated warm front moves through locally
into Wednesday morning, with the attendant cold front following
into Wednesday night. Secondary low pressure may develop nearby
on Thursday and pass east of of New England on Friday before
high pressure attempts to return from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front continues to move through the area through early
this evening. A brief shower is possible with the frontal
passage mainly across inland locations. Breezy conditions
along with temperatures in the 50s and 60s across the area will
plummet into the 40s and 30s once the cold front passes this
evening. NW winds will increase as the cold advection gets
underway. Temperatures will continue to fall through the rest
of the night ranging from the mid teens inland to around 20
closer to the coast by Sunday morning. The strongest winds will
likely occur the first half of the night with sustained speeds
15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Gusts should settle to 20-25
mph by day break Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Expect unseasonably cold conditions on Sunday as high pressure
continue to build towards the area. There will be enough of a
pressure gradient to support another blustery day. NW winds are
likely to gust 20-25 mph into the afternoon. A full day of
early March sunshine in combination with downsloping NW flow
will give temperatures a bit of a boost from the morning
temperatures. Afternoon highs should reach the mid-upper 20s
inland and lower 30s closer to the coast. Wind chills will be
in the teens to low 20s in the afternoon.
The high pressure will settle over the northeast Sunday night.
Outlying areas should decouple, but coastal areas may still have
a light breeze through the night with the center of the high
still to the west. Lows will range from around 10 inland to the
middle and upper teens closer to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Key Points:
* After a cold start to the period, increasing temperatures into
midweek, with highs running 10 degrees above normal.
* Moderate to locally heavy rainfall likely late Tuesday night into
Thursday, followed by blustery conditions into late week.
High pressure overhead on Monday slides offshore by early Tuesday
morning, allowing moderation of the air mass as southwest flow
develops. temperatures to reach the middle and upper 30s for highs
on Monday. Lows on Monday night will also be warmer than Sunday
night and generally in the 20s across the region.
Deep closed low over the Plains moves east into the mid Mississippi
Valley by Wed AM, while downstream ridging builds over the area,
with sfc high pressure moving farther out into the Atlantic. Return
flow and rising heights aloft will lead to a milder day, with temps
a good 10-15 degrees warmer than those of Monday, from the mid 40s
to lower 50s. A leading warm front will approach Tue night and move
through Wed AM with some light to moderate rain. Large scale warm
advection in a deep-layered S flow after warm fropa will continue to
transport Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the area, with the
potential for bands of moderate to heavy rain Wed into Wed evening.
QPF looks to average around an inch, though locally higher amounts
toward 1.5 inches possible. High temps Wed should be even milder,
widespread 50s, and possibly reaching 60 in parts of NE NJ.
Associated cold front passes through late Wed night into Thu
morning, with lingering showers possible through the day especially
over S CT and Long Island with the upper trough passing overhead.
Possible weak secondary low formation nearby could lead to more
prolonged precip mainly S CT and Long Island into Thursday before
conditions dry out. The tightened pressure gradient behind the
system will keep the flow gusty from the W and NW thru Friday, with
temperatures falling back toward normal late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A strong cold front passing through the region moves east by 22Z.
High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Sunday.
VFR.
A strong and gusty W/NW flow continues through tonight, with the
highest sustained winds and gusts into early evening, around 00Z. A
few peak gusts will be 35 to near 40 kt through 22Z. There is a
chance that the higher gusts continue an hour or so longer. Winds
and gusts then gradually diminish late tonight, and may drop off a
few more knots lower than forecast at the outlying terminals. At the
terminals that do drop off tonight winds and gusts will increase
Sunday morning, before once again diminishing midday into the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts 35 to near 40 kt remain possible until around 22Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Chance of rain late. MVFR cond possible.
Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR cond expected. S winds G20-30 kt, up
to 35 kt along the coast. LLWS.
Thursday: A chance of showers with MVFR. W/SW winds G20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A gale warning remains in effect across the ocean waters with
SCA level conditions expected across the non-ocean waters
through early Sunday morning. Winds will subside below SCA on
the non-ocean Sunday morning, but could linger into early
afternoon on the ocean. Conditions will be below SCA levels late
Sunday with high pressure building over the waters. Light
freezing spray is expected late tonight through Sunday.
SCA conditions develop on all waters daytime Wednesday as S flow
increases, with gusts 25 to 30 kt and ocean seas building from 2 to
3 ft early in the morning to 7 to 9 ft by evening. Gale force gusts
up to 40 kt possible on at least the ocean Wed night, if not all
waters. Ocean seas build further, reaching 9-12 ft late Wed night.
Gales should subside early Thursday, though SCA conditions could
persist thru Friday with a tightened pressure gradient behind the
system maintaining a blustery W/NW flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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A frontal system Wednesday into Thursday is expected to produce
around an inch or rainfall across the region, with potential for
locally higher amounts. Localized areas of minor flooding appear
possible Wednesday and Wednesday night as the steadiest of the
precipitation moves through, but duration and rates likely
preclude anything more significant and the overall threat for
flash flooding is low. WPC currently has a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall outlined for the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$