636
FXUS61 KOKX 020008
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
708 PM EST Sat Mar 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in through Monday, moving off the coast by
Tuesday. As strong low pressure tracks toward the Great Lakes,
an associated warm front moves through locally into Wednesday
morning, with the attendant cold front following into Wednesday
night. Secondary low pressure may develop nearby on Thursday and
pass east of of New England on Friday before high pressure
attempts to return from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Cold front has swept thru the region as of 2330Z, mostly dry,
and will continue exiting to the east. Winds have kicked up in
response, with KEWR recording a peak gust of 49 kt a short time
ago, but most other sites have remained under 40 kt. Will begin
to see these values lower some moving thru the evening, but
still gusty regionwide tonight as arctic air mass advects in.
Forecast remains on track.
Breezy conditions across the area ushers in sharply colder air
mass and helps temperatures plummet into the 40s and 30s once
the cold front passes this evening. NW winds will increase as
the cold advection gets underway. Temperatures will continue to
fall through the rest of the night ranging from the mid teens
inland to around 20 closer to the coast by Sunday morning. The
strongest winds will likely occur the first half of the night
with sustained speeds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Gusts
should settle to 20-25 mph by day break Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Expect unseasonably cold conditions on Sunday as high pressure
continue to build towards the area. There will be enough of a
pressure gradient to support another blustery day. NW winds are
likely to gust 20-25 mph into the afternoon. A full day of
early March sunshine in combination with downsloping NW flow
will give temperatures a bit of a boost from the morning
temperatures. Afternoon highs should reach the mid-upper 20s
inland and lower 30s closer to the coast. Wind chills will be
in the teens to low 20s in the afternoon.
The high pressure will settle over the northeast Sunday night.
Outlying areas should decouple, but coastal areas may still have
a light breeze through the night with the center of the high
still to the west. Lows will range from around 10 inland to the
middle and upper teens closer to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* After a cold start to the period, increasing temperatures into
midweek, with highs running 10 degrees above normal.
* Moderate to locally heavy rainfall likely late Tuesday night into
Thursday, followed by blustery conditions into late week.
High pressure overhead on Monday slides offshore by early Tuesday
morning, allowing moderation of the air mass as southwest flow
develops. temperatures to reach the middle and upper 30s for highs
on Monday. Lows on Monday night will also be warmer than Sunday
night and generally in the 20s across the region.
Deep closed low over the Plains moves east into the mid Mississippi
Valley by Wed AM, while downstream ridging builds over the area,
with sfc high pressure moving farther out into the Atlantic. Return
flow and rising heights aloft will lead to a milder day, with temps
a good 10-15 degrees warmer than those of Monday, from the mid 40s
to lower 50s. A leading warm front will approach Tue night and move
through Wed AM with some light to moderate rain. Large scale warm
advection in a deep-layered S flow after warm fropa will continue to
transport Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the area, with the
potential for bands of moderate to heavy rain Wed into Wed evening.
QPF looks to average around an inch, though locally higher amounts
toward 1.5 inches possible. High temps Wed should be even milder,
widespread 50s, and possibly reaching 60 in parts of NE NJ.
Associated cold front passes through late Wed night into Thu
morning, with lingering showers possible through the day especially
over S CT and Long Island with the upper trough passing overhead.
Possible weak secondary low formation nearby could lead to more
prolonged precip mainly S CT and Long Island into Thursday before
conditions dry out. The tightened pressure gradient behind the
system will keep the flow gusty from the W and NW thru Friday, with
temperatures falling back toward normal late week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through the TAF period.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period along with
continued gusty NW winds through much of the TAF period.
Sustained winds are NW near 20-23 kt much of this evening,
expected to lower to near 15-18 kt late this evening through
Sunday. Gusts around 30-35 kt expected early this evening before
decreasing closer to 25-30 kt late this evening through Sunday.
Some terminals outside of NYC will have gusts more within the
20-25 kt range overnight into Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts to near 40 kt remain possible before 02Z Sunday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR. NW winds gusts near 20 kt diminishing by late
evening.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Chance of rain late overnight. MVFR possible. SW
wind gusts 15-20 kt early in the evening.
Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR cond expected. S winds G20-30 kt, up
to 35 kt along the coast. LLWS.
Thursday: A chance of showers with MVFR. W/SW winds G20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A gale warning remains in effect across the ocean waters with
SCA level conditions expected across the non-ocean waters
through early Sunday morning. Winds will subside below SCA on
the non-ocean Sunday morning, but could linger into early
afternoon on the ocean. Conditions will be below SCA levels late
Sunday with high pressure building over the waters. Light
freezing spray is expected late tonight through Sunday.
SCA conditions develop on all waters daytime Wednesday as S flow
increases, with gusts 25 to 30 kt and ocean seas building from 2 to
3 ft early in the morning to 7 to 9 ft by evening. Gale force gusts
up to 40 kt possible on at least the ocean Wed night, if not all
waters. Ocean seas build further, reaching 9-12 ft late Wed night.
Gales should subside early Thursday, though SCA conditions could
persist thru Friday with a tightened pressure gradient behind the
system maintaining a blustery W/NW flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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A frontal system Wednesday into Thursday is expected to produce
generally around an inch or rainfall across the region. Localized
areas of minor flooding appear possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night as the steadiest of the precipitation moves through, but
duration and rates likely preclude anything more significant and
the overall threat for flash flooding is low. WPC currently has
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall outlined for the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
HYDROLOGY...DR