135
FXUS61 KOKX 021035
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
535 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Monday, moving off the coast by
Tuesday. Strong low pressure then tracks toward the Great Lakes
and Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday sending a warm front
north of the area Wednesday morning. A cold front then slowly
follows late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will
pull slowly away on Thursday, with high pressure sliding to the
south on Friday. A frontal system will then approach from the
west on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with the main story being unseasonably cold
conditions for early March. Temperatures to start the day for
many locations will be 20-25 degrees colder than temperatures
observed 24 hours ago. A deep upper level trough will continue
to across the northeast through tonight allowing high pressure
to gradually build in from the west. The atmosphere is very dry
with surface dew points likely falling to between 5 below to 5
above this afternoon. NW winds will still be gusty into the
afternoon, generally 20-25 mph. High temperatures will struggle
to rise out of the upper 20s inland and only to the lower 30s
closer to the coast, despite a fully day of early March
sunshine.
One last piece of energy within the upper trough will swing
across the area late tonight. A slight increase in clouds may
occur with this feature, but overall should have very little
impact on temperatures. Lows still look to fall to just above 10
inland and middle to upper teens most elsewhere. Lows in the
NYC metro will likely stay around 20 degrees. The gusts will end
this evening, but a light breeze remains possible close to the
coast through the night as the center of the high pressure
remains over western PA. Minimum wind chills by day break Monday
will generally be in the single digits for most spots to lower
teens in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough departs offshore Monday allowing heights to
rise aloft. High pressure will dominate at the surface during
the day and then slide offshore Monday night. Ridging then
continues to build aloft on Tuesday in response to ahead a
strong low pressure and closed upper low over the Plains. The
low pressure will then continue to deepen as it tracks towards
the Great Lakes Tuesday night, with a warm front beginning to
lift to the north by early Wednesday.
Cold conditions continue on Monday although temperatures will
begin to moderate somewhat compared to Sunday. Highs will still
be below normal for early March, but range from the lower 30s
across southeastern CT and eastern LI to the middle and upper
30s for the rest of the area. Some high clouds may begin to
stream around the ridge ahead of the aforementioned storm system
Monday night, but are more likely to increase on Tuesday. Lows
should fall into the lower 20s inland to the middle and upper
20s elsewhere Monday night.
Winds shift to the SW-S on Tuesday as the high pressure moves
offshore. Much milder conditions are anticipated in this regime,
which is supported by increasing warm advection in the low and
middle levels. Have sided closer to the NBM 75th percentile, which
yields highs in the lower 50s for the NYC metro and NE NJ with
middle to upper 40s elsewhere. Much of Tuesday night will remain
dry, but precipitation probabilities begin to increase towards
day break Wednesday as the strong storm system begins to move
closer to the area. Temperatures will be much milder Tuesday
night and may only fall into the mid to upper 30s inland and
near 40 at the coast. The warm air aloft will ensure any precip
that develops before day break to be in the form of rain
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Rainy and mild conditions expected on Wednesday as a frontal
system impacts the area, tapering off to more showery conditions
on Thursday.
* Brisk and more seasonable conditions return on Friday.
Global model guidance still consistent on the idea of strong low
pressure moving NE across the upper Great Lakes on Wed and into
Ontario and Quebec Wed night, with a warm frontal passage Wed AM,
moderate to locally heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall Wed into Wed
evening via large scale ascent/WAA/moisture transport in the warm
sector on a strong southerly LLJ with PW up to 1.25 inches, then a
cold frontal passage late Wed night. Signals still present for
locally heavy rainfall via orographic lift inland and also on the
nose of the LLJ, also elevated CAPE/isolated thunder Wed night,
yielding avg QPF of about 1.0-1.25 inches, and locally over 1.5
inches. With the GFS showing an LLJ as strong as 75-80 kt, also
expect strong S winds gusting to at least 40 mph especially for NYC
metro and the coast Wed afternoon/evening, even with a sfc-based
inversion. Temps will be on the mild side, with highs in the 50s and
possibly nearing 60 in the urban corridor of NE NJ.
Associated cold front passes through late Wed night into Thu
morning, with lingering showers possible through the day on Thu,
especially over S CT and Long Island, as the parent upper trough
passes through. Brisk and colder conditions expected for Thu
night/Fri as a secondary low develops E of New England ad increases
the sfc pressure gradient, with temps returning to near or slightly
below normal.
After the upper trough associated with the mid week system pulls
away from the area, the flow aloft becomes zonal over the eastern
US. An embedded shortwave trough in the flow should send a fast-
moving low eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley Fri night to the
Mid Atlantic coast by Sat night. Have only 20-30 PoP attm for some
light snow or rain with this system, with temps still near
seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR with NW winds 15-18 kt with gusts 25-30 kt as high pressure
builds from the west. Some terminals outside the NYC metro area
may gust more in the 20-25 kt range. Gusts begin to diminish
after 00Z Mon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Peak gusts could be a few kt higher than fcst.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late tonight and Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Chance of rain showers late mainly NW of the NYC
metro terminals, with MVFR possible. S winds G15-20 kt still
possible at the coastal terminals.
Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR cond and LLWS expected. S winds G20-
25kt in the morning, increasing to G30-35kt in the
afternoon/evening.
Thursday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds
G20kt in the afternoon, becoming NW G25kt at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain at SCA levels into the afternoon on the ocean
and should begin subsiding below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters
late this morning. Ocean seas are likely to linger close to 5 ft
on the ocean. The SCA on the non-ocean waters goes through 10am
and ocean SCA through 6pm. Light freezing spray is expected
into the afternoon. Conditions will then be below SCA levels
tonight through Monday night with high pressure building over
the waters. The high pressure moves offshore allowing for a
strengthening S flow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Marginal SCA
conditions are possible on the ocean late Tuesday and Tuesday
night.
S flow ramps up quickly on Wed, with SCA cond expected on the
ocean in the morning and the non ocean waters by afternoon,
with gusts at least 25-30 kt continuing into Wed night.
Meanwhile ocean seas should build to 4-6 ft by midday, 7-10 ft
by evening, and peaking at 10-13 ft by midnight Wed night.
Potential for S gale force gusts 35- 40 kt Wed afternoon/evening
is increasing, especially for the ocean waters.
Winds should ramp down daytime Thu after a cold frontal passage, but
hazardous seas of 8-12 ft should continue on the ocean, lowering
only slightly to 7-10 ft Thu afternoon/night. Then as low pressure
to the east intensifies, NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt should return
to all waters Thu night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system Wednesday into Thursday is should produce QPF
of 1.00 to 1.25 inches, with localized totals over 1.5 inches
possible. The heavier rain is expected Wed afternoon/evening,
with rainfall rates precluding anything other than nuisance
minor flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS