135
FXUS61 KOKX 021035
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
535 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Monday, moving off the coast by
Tuesday. Strong low pressure then tracks toward the Great Lakes
and Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday sending a warm front
north of the area Wednesday morning. A cold front then slowly
follows late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will
pull slowly away on Thursday, with high pressure sliding to the
south on Friday. A frontal system will then approach from the
west on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast on track with the main story being unseasonably cold conditions for early March. Temperatures to start the day for many locations will be 20-25 degrees colder than temperatures observed 24 hours ago. A deep upper level trough will continue to across the northeast through tonight allowing high pressure to gradually build in from the west. The atmosphere is very dry with surface dew points likely falling to between 5 below to 5 above this afternoon. NW winds will still be gusty into the afternoon, generally 20-25 mph. High temperatures will struggle to rise out of the upper 20s inland and only to the lower 30s closer to the coast, despite a fully day of early March sunshine. One last piece of energy within the upper trough will swing across the area late tonight. A slight increase in clouds may occur with this feature, but overall should have very little impact on temperatures. Lows still look to fall to just above 10 inland and middle to upper teens most elsewhere. Lows in the NYC metro will likely stay around 20 degrees. The gusts will end this evening, but a light breeze remains possible close to the coast through the night as the center of the high pressure remains over western PA. Minimum wind chills by day break Monday will generally be in the single digits for most spots to lower teens in the NYC metro.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The upper trough departs offshore Monday allowing heights to rise aloft. High pressure will dominate at the surface during the day and then slide offshore Monday night. Ridging then continues to build aloft on Tuesday in response to ahead a strong low pressure and closed upper low over the Plains. The low pressure will then continue to deepen as it tracks towards the Great Lakes Tuesday night, with a warm front beginning to lift to the north by early Wednesday. Cold conditions continue on Monday although temperatures will begin to moderate somewhat compared to Sunday. Highs will still be below normal for early March, but range from the lower 30s across southeastern CT and eastern LI to the middle and upper 30s for the rest of the area. Some high clouds may begin to stream around the ridge ahead of the aforementioned storm system Monday night, but are more likely to increase on Tuesday. Lows should fall into the lower 20s inland to the middle and upper 20s elsewhere Monday night. Winds shift to the SW-S on Tuesday as the high pressure moves offshore. Much milder conditions are anticipated in this regime, which is supported by increasing warm advection in the low and middle levels. Have sided closer to the NBM 75th percentile, which yields highs in the lower 50s for the NYC metro and NE NJ with middle to upper 40s elsewhere. Much of Tuesday night will remain dry, but precipitation probabilities begin to increase towards day break Wednesday as the strong storm system begins to move closer to the area. Temperatures will be much milder Tuesday night and may only fall into the mid to upper 30s inland and near 40 at the coast. The warm air aloft will ensure any precip that develops before day break to be in the form of rain && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Points: * Rainy and mild conditions expected on Wednesday as a frontal system impacts the area, tapering off to more showery conditions on Thursday. * Brisk and more seasonable conditions return on Friday. Global model guidance still consistent on the idea of strong low pressure moving NE across the upper Great Lakes on Wed and into Ontario and Quebec Wed night, with a warm frontal passage Wed AM, moderate to locally heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall Wed into Wed evening via large scale ascent/WAA/moisture transport in the warm sector on a strong southerly LLJ with PW up to 1.25 inches, then a cold frontal passage late Wed night. Signals still present for locally heavy rainfall via orographic lift inland and also on the nose of the LLJ, also elevated CAPE/isolated thunder Wed night, yielding avg QPF of about 1.0-1.25 inches, and locally over 1.5 inches. With the GFS showing an LLJ as strong as 75-80 kt, also expect strong S winds gusting to at least 40 mph especially for NYC metro and the coast Wed afternoon/evening, even with a sfc-based inversion. Temps will be on the mild side, with highs in the 50s and possibly nearing 60 in the urban corridor of NE NJ. Associated cold front passes through late Wed night into Thu morning, with lingering showers possible through the day on Thu, especially over S CT and Long Island, as the parent upper trough passes through. Brisk and colder conditions expected for Thu night/Fri as a secondary low develops E of New England ad increases the sfc pressure gradient, with temps returning to near or slightly below normal. After the upper trough associated with the mid week system pulls away from the area, the flow aloft becomes zonal over the eastern US. An embedded shortwave trough in the flow should send a fast- moving low eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley Fri night to the Mid Atlantic coast by Sat night. Have only 20-30 PoP attm for some light snow or rain with this system, with temps still near seasonable levels. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR with NW winds 15-18 kt with gusts 25-30 kt as high pressure builds from the west. Some terminals outside the NYC metro area may gust more in the 20-25 kt range. Gusts begin to diminish after 00Z Mon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Peak gusts could be a few kt higher than fcst. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Late tonight and Monday: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon. Tuesday night: Chance of rain showers late mainly NW of the NYC metro terminals, with MVFR possible. S winds G15-20 kt still possible at the coastal terminals. Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR cond and LLWS expected. S winds G20- 25kt in the morning, increasing to G30-35kt in the afternoon/evening. Thursday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon, becoming NW G25kt at night. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Winds will remain at SCA levels into the afternoon on the ocean and should begin subsiding below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters late this morning. Ocean seas are likely to linger close to 5 ft on the ocean. The SCA on the non-ocean waters goes through 10am and ocean SCA through 6pm. Light freezing spray is expected into the afternoon. Conditions will then be below SCA levels tonight through Monday night with high pressure building over the waters. The high pressure moves offshore allowing for a strengthening S flow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean late Tuesday and Tuesday night. S flow ramps up quickly on Wed, with SCA cond expected on the ocean in the morning and the non ocean waters by afternoon, with gusts at least 25-30 kt continuing into Wed night. Meanwhile ocean seas should build to 4-6 ft by midday, 7-10 ft by evening, and peaking at 10-13 ft by midnight Wed night. Potential for S gale force gusts 35- 40 kt Wed afternoon/evening is increasing, especially for the ocean waters. Winds should ramp down daytime Thu after a cold frontal passage, but hazardous seas of 8-12 ft should continue on the ocean, lowering only slightly to 7-10 ft Thu afternoon/night. Then as low pressure to the east intensifies, NW flow gusting to 25-30 kt should return to all waters Thu night. && .HYDROLOGY... A frontal system Wednesday into Thursday is should produce QPF of 1.00 to 1.25 inches, with localized totals over 1.5 inches possible. The heavier rain is expected Wed afternoon/evening, with rainfall rates precluding anything other than nuisance minor flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...BG MARINE...BG/DS HYDROLOGY...BG/DS