228
FXUS61 KOKX 021812
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
112 PM EST Sun Mar 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Monday, moving off the coast by
Tuesday. Strong low pressure then tracks toward the Great Lakes
and Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday sending a warm front
north of the area Wednesday morning. A cold front then slowly
follows late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system will
pull slowly away on Thursday, with high pressure sliding to the
south on Friday. A frontal system will then approach from the
west on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Unseasonably cold conditions for early March this afternoon into
tonight. A deep upper level trough will continue to move across
the northeast through tonight allowing high pressure to
gradually build in from the west. The atmosphere is very dry
with surface dew points likely falling to between 5 below to 5
above this afternoon. NW winds will still be gusty into the
afternoon, generally 20-25 mph. High temperatures will struggle
to rise out of the upper 20s inland and only to the lower 30s
closer to the coast, despite a fully day of early March
sunshine.
One last piece of energy within the upper trough will swing
across the area late tonight. A slight increase in clouds may
occur with this feature, but overall should have very little
impact on temperatures. Lows still look to fall to just above 10
inland and middle to upper teens most elsewhere. Lows in the
NYC metro will likely stay around 20 degrees. The gusts will end
this evening, but a light breeze remains possible close to the
coast through the night as the center of the high pressure
remains over western PA. Minimum wind chills by day break Monday
will generally be in the single digits for most spots to lower
teens in the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough departs offshore Monday allowing heights to
rise aloft. High pressure will dominate at the surface during
the day and then slide offshore Monday night. Ridging then
continues to build aloft on Tuesday in response to ahead a
strong low pressure and closed upper low over the Plains. The
low pressure will then continue to deepen as it tracks towards
the Great Lakes Tuesday night, with a warm front beginning to
lift to the north by early Wednesday.
Cold conditions continue on Monday although temperatures will
begin to moderate somewhat compared to Sunday. Highs will still
be below normal for early March, but range from the lower 30s
across southeastern CT and eastern LI to the middle and upper
30s for the rest of the area. Some high clouds may begin to
stream around the ridge ahead of the aforementioned storm system
Monday night, but are more likely to increase on Tuesday. Lows
should fall into the lower 20s inland to the middle and upper
20s elsewhere Monday night.
Winds shift to the SW-S on Tuesday as the high pressure moves
offshore. Much milder conditions are anticipated in this regime,
which is supported by increasing warm advection in the low and
middle levels. Have sided closer to the NBM 75th percentile, which
yields highs in the lower 50s for the NYC metro and NE NJ with
middle to upper 40s elsewhere. Much of Tuesday night will remain
dry, but precipitation probabilities begin to increase towards
day break Wednesday as the strong storm system begins to move
closer to the area. Temperatures will be much milder Tuesday
night and may only fall into the mid to upper 30s inland and
near 40 at the coast. The warm air aloft will ensure any precip
that develops before day break to be in the form of rain
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Rainy and mild conditions expected on Wednesday as a frontal
system impacts the area, tapering off to showery conditions
on Thursday.
* Brisk and more seasonable conditions return on Friday.
Global model guidance still consistent on the idea of strong low
pressure moving NE across the upper Great Lakes on Wed and
into Ontario and Quebec Wed night, with a warm frontal passage
Wed AM, moderate to locally heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall
Wed into Wed evening via large scale ascent/WAA/moisture
transport in the warm sector on a strong southerly LLJ with PW
up to 1.25 inches, then a cold frontal passage late Wed night.
Signals still present for locally heavy rainfall via orographic
lift inland and also on the nose of the LLJ, also elevated
CAPE/isolated thunder Wed night, yielding avg QPF of about
1.0-1.25 inches, and locally over 1.5 inches. With the GFS
showing an LLJ as strong as 75-80 kt, also expect strong S winds
gusting to at least 40 mph especially for NYC metro and the
coast Wed afternoon/evening, even with a sfc-based inversion.
Temps will be on the mild side, with highs in the 50s and
possibly nearing 60 in the urban corridor of NE NJ.
Associated cold front passes through late Wed night into Thu
morning, with lingering showers possible through the day on
Thu, especially over S CT and Long Island, as the parent upper
trough passes through. Brisk and colder conditions expected for
Thu night/Fri as a secondary low develops E of New England ad
increases the sfc pressure gradient, with temps returning to
near or slightly below normal.
After the upper trough associated with the mid week system pulls
away from the area, the flow aloft becomes zonal over the
eastern US. An embedded shortwave trough in the flow should send
a fast- moving low eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley Fri
night to the Mid Atlantic coast by Sat night. Have only 20-30
PoP attm for some light snow or rain with this system, with
temps still near seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with gusty NW winds at 14-18 kt with gusts
around or just over 25 kt as high pressure builds from the west.
Winds then diminish to under 10 kt by late evening and remain
around 10 kt or under through Monday out of the NW before
shifting to the southwest Monday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.
Tuesday night: Chance of rain showers late mainly NW of the NYC
metro terminals, with MVFR possible. S winds G15-20 kt still
possible at the coastal terminals.
Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR cond and LLWS expected. S winds G20-
25kt in the morning, increasing to G30-35kt in the
afternoon/evening.
Thursday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds
G20kt in the afternoon, becoming NW G25kt at night.
Friday:VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The SCA for New York Harbor and the South Shore Bays was allowed
to expire, however, occasional gusts, especially near shore, may
occasionally gust to near 25 kt into the mid afternoon hours.
For the far eastern Long Island Sound, and the eastern Long
Island bays gusts will likely remain near 25 kt into late
afternoon, and the SAC remains until 400 PM EST.
Winds will remain at SCA levels into the afternoon on the ocean
waters. Ocean seas are likely to linger close to 5 ft. The
advisory remains in effect until 600 PM EST.
With the gusty winds light freezing spray is expected into the
afternoon. Conditions will then be below SCA levels tonight
through Monday night with high pressure building over the
waters. The high pressure moves offshore allowing for a
strengthening S flow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Marginal SCA
conditions are possible on the ocean late Tuesday and Tuesday
night.
S flow ramps up quickly on Wed, with SCA cond on the ocean in
the morning and the non ocean waters by afternoon, with gusts at
least 25-30 kt continuing into Wed night. Meanwhile ocean seas
should build to 4-6 ft by midday, 7-10 ft by evening, and
peaking at 10-13 ft by midnight Wed night. Potential for S gale
force gusts 35- 40 kt Wed afternoon/evening is increasing,
especially for the ocean waters.
Winds should ramp down daytime Thu after a cold frontal passage,
but hazardous seas of 8-12 ft should continue on the ocean,
lowering only slightly to 7-10 ft Thu afternoon/night. Then as
low pressure to the east intensifies, NW flow gusting to 25-30
kt should return to all waters Thu night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system Wednesday into Thursday is should produce QPF
of 1.00 to 1.25 inches, with localized totals over 1.5 inches
possible. The heavier rain is expected Wed afternoon/evening,
with rainfall rates precluding anything other than nuisance
minor flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ332-
340.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...
MARINE...BG/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS