420
FXUS61 KOKX 022046
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
346 PM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in through Monday, moving off the coast
Monday night and Tuesday. Strong low pressure tracks through the
Great Lakes and into Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, sending
a warm front through the area Wednesday morning. A cold front then
follows into Wednesday night. The system pulls away Thursday,
with high pressure building in as it passes to the south through
Friday. Another frontal system approaches and impacts the area
over the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The upper trough axis was moving through the region late Sunday
afternoon as seen on the water vapor satellite loops. A
shortwave trough does move into the longwave trough through
late tonight into early Monday, and may be accompanied with some
high cloudiness.

Another cold night is expected as the core of the cold airmass
moves through the region. Tonight will be colder across most
locations than Saturday night as winds become lighter, and
possibly decouple late. and with little cloud cover, allowing
for some radiational cooling. Lows will average about 10 degrees
below normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Warm air advection sets up early Monday, and continues through
Tuesday, as winds gradually shift to the west, southwest, and
then south by Tuesday. Upper height rise Monday into Monday
night as surface high pressure builds over the region, moving
off the coast late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures
moderate Monday through Tuesday, rising above normal by Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Key Points:

* Moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected on Wednesday, tapering
  off to showery conditions Thursday.

* Turning brisk late week, with a return of more seasonable
  temperatures.

Active start to the period as strong low pressure slides through the
upper Great Lakes on Wednesday and into Ontario Wednesday night.
Associated warm front lifts thru locally Wed AM, with moderate to
locally heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall expected via large scale
ascent/WAA/moisture transport in the warm sector, then a cold
frontal passage Wed night. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Not
entirely out of the question a bit of elevated CAPE produces some
isolated thunder Wed night as well, but thinking this activity will
be limited at best if it does occur, and have omitted mention with
this forecast. QPF averages around an inch based on global ensemble
means, with perhaps some localized amount aoa 1.5 inches. In
addition, a potent 925 mb LLJ progged at 70 to 80 kt in soundings is
expected to pass over portions of the area, leading to strong S
winds gusting to at least 40 mph, especially for NYC metro and the
coast Wed afternoon/evening, even with a sfc-based inversion. Temps
Wednesday will be on the mild side, with highs in the 50s and
possibly nearing 60 in the urban corridor of NE NJ.

Associated cold front passes through late Wed night into Thu
morning, with lingering showers possible through the day on Thu,
especially over S CT and Long Island, as the parent upper trough
passes through. Brisk and colder conditions expected for Thu
night/Fri as a secondary low develops E of New England ad increases
the sfc pressure gradient, with temps returning to near or slightly
below normal.

After the upper trough associated with the midweek system pulls away
from the area, the flow aloft becomes zonal over the eastern US. An
embedded shortwave trough in the flow should send a fast-moving low
eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley Fri night to the Mid
Atlantic coast by Sat night. System appears relatively weak and
progressive with the flow, but depending on temperatures, could
bring a bit of light rain or snow to the region.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions continue into Monday. Gusty NW winds will begin
to diminish as high pressure builds across the area. NW winds
diminish to under 10 kt by late this evening and remain around
10 kt or under through Monday, before shifting to the southwest
Monday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Tuesday night: Chance of rain showers late mainly NW of the NYC
metro terminals, with MVFR possible. S winds G15-20 kt still
possible at the coastal terminals.

Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR cond and LLWS expected. S winds G20-
25kt in the morning, increasing to G30-35kt in the
afternoon/evening.

Thursday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR cond possible. W winds
G20kt in the afternoon, becoming NW G25kt at night.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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With frequent wind gusts having diminished below 25 kt across
the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet, and the eastern Long
Island Sound, and eastern Long Island bays, have cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory. Frequent gusts were also below 25 kt on
the ocean waters. However, for the ocean waters east of Fire
Island Inlet seas remain elevated until 600 PM EST for the
waters to Moriches Inlet, and extended the advisory until 1100
PM EST east of Moriches Inlet. Once seas subside this evening,
winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast
waters until late day Tuesday. With an increasing southerly flow
ahead of an approaching frontal system Tuesday, gusts and seas
may be near SCA levels by late day Tuesday on the ocean waters.

Strengthening S flow Tuesday night as high pressure shifts offshore.
The flow ramps up quickly on Wed, SCA cond develop on the ocean in
the morning and the non ocean waters by afternoon, with gusts at
least 25 to 30 kt continuing into Wed night. Potential for S gale
force gusts 35 to 40 kt Wed afternoon/evening, especially on ocean
waters. Meanwhile ocean seas should build to 4 to 6 ft by midday, 7
to 10 ft by evening, and peaking at 10 to 13 ft by midnight Wed
night.

Winds begin to lower daytime Thursday after a cold frontal passage,
but hazardous seas of 8 to 12 ft continue on the ocean, lowering
slightly to 7 to 10 ft Thursday afternoon/night. Then as low
pressure to the east intensifies, NW flow gusting to 25 to 30 kt
should return to all waters Thu night, with gales possible once
again on Friday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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A frontal system impacts the region Wednesday and Wednesday night
and is expected to produce around an inch of rainfall, with
localized totals up to 1.5 inches possible. The heaviest, steadiest
of the precipitation is expected Wed afternoon and evening, but
rainfall rates likely preclude anything other than nuisance minor
flooding. WPC continues to outline a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall for the area.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ353.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR