788
FXUS61 KOKX 030004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
704 PM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Monday, moving off the coast
Monday night and Tuesday. Strong low pressure tracks through the
Great Lakes and into Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday, sending
a warm front through the area Wednesday morning. A cold front then
follows into Wednesday night. The system pulls away Thursday,
with high pressure building in as it passes to the south through
Friday. Another frontal system approaches and impacts the area
over the weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Clear skies and lightening winds to start the evening will largely persist as high pressure slides over the region, setting up a relatively cold March night. Forecast remains on track and previous discussion follows. The upper trough axis was moving through the region late this afternoon as seen on the water vapor satellite loops. A shortwave trough does move into the longwave trough through late tonight into early Monday, and may be accompanied with some high cloudiness. Another cold night is expected as the core of the cold airmass moves through the region. Tonight will be colder across most locations than Saturday night as winds become lighter, and possibly decouple late. and with little cloud cover, allowing for some radiational cooling. Lows will average about 10 degrees below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm air advection sets up early Monday, and continues through Tuesday, as winds gradually shift to the west, southwest, and then south by Tuesday. Upper height rise Monday into Monday night as surface high pressure builds over the region, moving off the coast late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures moderate Monday through Tuesday, rising above normal by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Points: * Moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected on Wednesday, tapering off to showery conditions Thursday. * Turning brisk late week, with a return of more seasonable temperatures. Active start to the period as strong low pressure slides through the upper Great Lakes on Wednesday and into Ontario Wednesday night. Associated warm front lifts thru locally Wed AM, with moderate to locally heavy warm conveyor belt rainfall expected via large scale ascent/WAA/moisture transport in the warm sector, then a cold frontal passage Wed night. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Not entirely out of the question a bit of elevated CAPE produces some isolated thunder Wed night as well, but thinking this activity will be limited at best if it does occur, and have omitted mention with this forecast. QPF averages around an inch based on global ensemble means, with perhaps some localized amount aoa 1.5 inches. In addition, a potent 925 mb LLJ progged at 70 to 80 kt in soundings is expected to pass over portions of the area, leading to strong S winds gusting to at least 40 mph, especially for NYC metro and the coast Wed afternoon/evening, even with a sfc-based inversion. Temps Wednesday will be on the mild side, with highs in the 50s and possibly nearing 60 in the urban corridor of NE NJ. Associated cold front passes through late Wed night into Thu morning, with lingering showers possible through the day on Thu, especially over S CT and Long Island, as the parent upper trough passes through. Brisk and colder conditions expected for Thu night/Fri as a secondary low develops E of New England ad increases the sfc pressure gradient, with temps returning to near or slightly below normal. After the upper trough associated with the midweek system pulls away from the area, the flow aloft becomes zonal over the eastern US. An embedded shortwave trough in the flow should send a fast-moving low eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley Fri night to the Mid Atlantic coast by Sat night. System appears relatively weak and progressive with the flow, but depending on temperatures, could bring a bit of light rain or snow to the region. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to build in through the TAF period. VFR conditions are expected. NW winds near 10-12 kt with gusts near 20 kt diminish this evening with generally NW flow thereafter near 5-10 kt. Winds shift to SW Monday night near 5-7 kts. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of gusts this evening could be off by 1-2 hours. Gusts could be more occasional in frequency this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt. Tuesday night: Chance of rain showers late mainly well NW of the NYC metro terminals, with MVFR possible. S winds G15-20 kt at some of the coastal terminals. Wednesday: Rain with IFR/LIFR at times and LLWS expected. S winds G20-25kt in the morning, increasing to G30-35kt late morning through evening. Gusts lower overnight into early Thursday. Thursday: Chance of rain showers with MVFR possible. W winds G20kt in the afternoon, becoming NW G25-30kt at night. Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 30 kt, gradually diminishing at night. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory remains on ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet until 1100 PM EST with lingering seas around 5 ft. Once seas subside this evening, winds and seas remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters until late day Tuesday. With an increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system Tuesday, gusts and seas may be near SCA levels by late day Tuesday on the ocean waters. Strengthening S flow Tuesday night as high pressure shifts offshore. The flow ramps up quickly on Wed, SCA cond develop on the ocean in the morning and the non ocean waters by afternoon, with gusts at least 25 to 30 kt continuing into Wed night. Potential for S gale force gusts 35 to 40 kt Wed afternoon/evening, especially on ocean waters. Meanwhile ocean seas should build to 4 to 6 ft by midday, 7 to 10 ft by evening, and peaking at 10 to 13 ft by midnight Wed night. Winds begin to lower daytime Thursday after a cold frontal passage, but hazardous seas of 8 to 12 ft continue on the ocean, lowering slightly to 7 to 10 ft Thursday afternoon/night. Then as low pressure to the east intensifies, NW flow gusting to 25 to 30 kt should return to all waters Thu night, with gales possible once again on Friday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... A frontal system impacts the region Wednesday and Wednesday night and is expected to produce around an inch of rainfall, with localized totals up to 1.5 inches possible. The heaviest, steadiest of the precipitation is expected Wed afternoon and evening, but rainfall rates likely preclude anything other than nuisance minor flooding. WPC continues to outline a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the area. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DR/MET NEAR TERM...DR/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...JM MARINE...DR/MET HYDROLOGY...DR/MET