766
FXUS61 KOKX 031202
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
702 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will slowly move off the coast late
today into Tuesday. Strong low pressure moving through the upper
Great Lakes region will send a warm front through Wednesday
morning, followed by a cold front late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. High pressure will then gradually build in as it
passes to the south through Friday. A weak frontal system will
pass through this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
With high pressure settling over the area today, NW winds will
continue to diminish and become W late this afternoon.
Weak WAA will lead to high temps under mostly sunny skies
similar to those of Sunday across eastern Long Island/CT (lower
30s) and only slightly warmer elsewhere (mid/upper 30s).
Mostly clear skies will continue most of tonight, with light
winds, leading to strong radiational cooling. An upper ridge
will be building toward the area, but as a warm front passes
well north and an embedded mid level shortwave approaches, there
should be an increase in mid level clouds late especially from
NYC north/west, but too late to have much impact on temps,
though as weak S-SW flow commences temps could hold steady or
slowly rise late along the coast. Lows will range from around
30 in NYC, to 15-20 well inland and in the Long Island Pine
Barrens region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tue should be a partly to mostly cloudy day as broken high and
mid level clouds continue to overspread the area from the west.
Low level WAA on S-SW flow will lead to a noticeably milder day,
with highs in the lower 50s in NYC/NE NJ and the mid/upper 40s
elsewhere. Temps fall Tue night to the lower 40s in NYC and the
mid 30s well inland, and lows may occur late in the evening or
around midnight before holding steady or slowly rising as WAA
continues.
Rain with the warm conveyor belt out ahead of an approaching
cold front system should move in daytime Wed, with likely PoP
NW of NYC by late morning, then categorical PoP for most of the
area in the afternoon especially late and into the evening. The
rain could become locally heavy, and isolated elevated thunder
is possible mainly from western Long Island and SW CT on west.
S winds will also be increasing through the day and into the
evening as a strong LLJ with H9 speeds 75-80 kt moves across.
Expect at least some strong wind despite a sfc-based inversion,
with gusts at least as high as 35-40 mph for the NYC metro and
Long Island from late afternoon and evening, and 30-35 mph
inland. If the inversion is weaker cannot rule out somewhat
stronger winds and the eventual need for a wind advisory for NYC
metro, Long Island, and possibly coastal CT. Rain tapers off to
showers after midnight.
High temps on Wed should be in the 50s, with lows Wed night in
the mid/upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* The strong low and its associated cold front will push
offshore on Thursday bringing an end to any lingering
showers Thursday morning.
* Windy conditions are expected late Thursday into Friday as
high pressure gradually builds towards the region.
* Mainly dry conditions prevail next weekend with just a weak
frontal system passing across the area.
A highly amplified upper trough will swing across the east coast
on Thursday, helping to push the deep moisture and lift
offshore in the morning. The associated cold front will also
continue to push offshore. The trough lifts towards the
Maritimes on Friday as a progressive ridge slides across the
region. Another shortwave will quickly follow next weekend.
Guidance has continued to illustrate a relatively flat shortwave
that moves across the region with weak lift and little to no
precipitation. The associated weak front and low pressure pass
through sometime Saturday into Saturday night with a high
pressure ridge following on Sunday. Have kept PoPs no higher
than slight chance on Saturday with the aforementioned weak
front. Temperatures profiles support any precip that does
develop to be in the form of rain except maybe a few wet
snowflakes well inland Saturday morning.
NW winds will increase late Thursday into Thursday night.
Sustained winds 15-25 mph are possible with gusts 30-35 mph. A
few gusts to 40 mph are also possible. These winds may continue
into a portion of Friday before weakening into the start of the
weekend. The warmest day of the period will be Thursday with
highs well into the 50s. The air mass should cool down by Friday
with temperatures in the middle to upper 40s. Slightly warmer
temperatures are possible to start next weekend before trending
back closer to normal next Sunday behind the departing weak
front.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control through early Tuesday
morning.
NW flow around 10 kt or less through early this afternoon. The
wind direction will then back towards the W and SW late
afternoon into the early evening. The flow weakens to around 5
kt or less this evening and overnight. S winds begin to increase
Tuesday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts up to 20 kt at KLGA through 14z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20 kt Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday night: MVFR possible, especially late with a chance of a
shower well NW of the NYC metro terminals. S winds G15-20 kt
possible.
Wednesday: Showers with IFR/LIFR at times and LLWS expected.
S winds G25-35kt. The strong winds will likely occur in the
afternoon through the night and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR possible. W winds G20kt in
the afternoon, becoming NW G25-30kt at night.
Friday: VFR. NW G25-30 kt, gradually diminishing in the
afternoon and evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet through tonight with diminishing NW-W winds. As high
pressure passes off the Mid Atlantic coast on Tue, S-SW flow
increasing to near 20 kt should build seas to 5 ft Tue
afternoon/night. Some gusts to 25 kt area also possible on the
ocean in the afternoon and early evening.
As a strong frontal system approaches on Wed, S flow will continue
to increase, with the strongest winds in the late afternoon and
evening as a low level jet passes overhead. Sustained S winds of
25-30 kt expected with gusts at least 35-40 kt on the
ocean/south shore bays and up to 30 kt elsewhere. If an expected
sfc-based inversion is weaker than fcst, somewhat stronger
winds could occur, with a period of at least 35-kt gusts on all
waters and as high as 40-45 kt on the ocean. As winds increase,
ocean seas should build to 7-9 ft by late day, then as high as
10-13 ft Wed night, and some 5-6 footers also possible on Block
Island Sound east of Orient.
Winds may briefly subside below SCA levels Thursday morning but
should increase again in the afternoon and evening with a
steepening pressure gradient. SCA conditions are likely Thursday
night into Friday with potential of gales, especially into
Friday morning. Winds should start to weaken late Friday and may
fall below SCA levels late Friday night. Seas will be hazardous
between 8-12 ft on the ocean Thursday into Friday morning and
then subside closer to 5 ft Friday night. Waves on the LI Sound
may build to 3-6 ft Thursday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system impacting the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night should produce QPF of 1.0 to 1.5 inches, with the higher
totals expected inland. Rainfall rates could approach 1/2 to 3/4
inch in spots at the time of heaviest rainfall, which would lead
to nuisance urban and poor drainage flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG