847
FXUS61 KOKX 032235
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
535 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore tonight into Tuesday. Strong low
pressure moving through the upper Great Lakes region will send a
warm front through on Wednesday, followed by a cold front Thursday
morning. High pressure will then gradually build in as it passes to
the south through Friday. A weak frontal system then passes through
on Saturday. Weak high pressure follows for Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mostly on track. Just some minor adjustments
made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on the latest
obs and trends.
High pressure shifts offshore tonight, resulting in a very weak
return flow. Tricky temperature forecast tonight. While winds will
be light, there will be the southerly component to them. Also, mid
and high level clouds start to move into the area very late tonight.
Previous forecast was colder than the newer MOS guidance, so have
trended the forecast a bit warmer. This gives lows in the upper
teens in the usual cold spots and lows in the 20s to low 30s
elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Strong low pressure approaches from the west on Tuesday. The
daylight hours will be dry, with the southerly flow gradually
increasing and broken mid to high level clouds around. Strong warm
advection kicks in and high temperatures look to reach the 50s
across northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC, with the
middle to upper 40s expected across LI and southern CT with more of
the marine influence.
As the strong low tracks to our northwest, it will bring a warm
front through on Wednesday and a cold front by early Thursday
morning. Light overrunning rain likely starts ahead of the warm
front Tuesday night. A period of more steady and heavier rain is
expected sometime between Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday
night out ahead of the cold front. Deep strong lift combines with
anomalous moisture to bring the chance of moderate to locally heavy
rain showers. The strong southerly flow will bring in a plume of
moisture characterized by pwats around 1.25 inches and dewpoints in
the lower 50s. Per SPC`s Sounding Climatology Page, this pwat value
would be higher than the max moving average and the daily max for
the OKX 3/6 00z upper air sounding. At this time, flooding is not
expected, but rainfall rates of 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch in an hour
could lead to some nuisance urban and poor drainage flooding.
Strong winds are also possible with this system. A LLJ peaks over
the area Wednesday evening through early Wednesday night with 60 to
70 knots at 925mb. There is an inversion in place, and the question
is exactly how much can mix down. Taking 50-60% of the 925 LLJ
leaves us just short of Wind Advisory criteria over Long Island at
this time.
There does look to be weak instability aloft. Will leave slight
chance of thunder in for now for western locations late
Wednesday afternoon and early evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cyclonic flow aloft in the wake of the departing cold front
maintains a chance of a shower mainly north of city during Thursday.
After a lull in winds, W to NW gusts begin to pick up as early as
late in the day, but more so Thursday night as the pressure gradient
tightens over the region. Gusts 30-35 mph anticipated during the
night into Friday morning, then winds subside Friday afternoon as
the pressure gradient weakens. High temperatures for both Thursday
and Friday above normal.
A weak low center then approaches late Friday night and passes
through during Saturday. Slight chance PoPs for this period. Any
precip would be light and would likely be in the form rain at the
coast and a rain/snow mix inland.
The most likely scenario for Sunday appears to be another area of
low pressure emerging off the east coast, but this time in the
vicinity of the Carolinas. Only the 12z GFS introduces a scenario
where this low passes just south of the forecast area as a southern
stream shortwave attempts to phase with northern stream energy. All
other guidance supports the low passing well off to our south. Will
therefore continue with a dry forecast for Sunday, especially with
this being only first GFS run to show this alternate scenario. Weak
high pressure then keeps dry weather in the forecast through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pres builds over the Atlc thru Tue.
VFR thru the TAF period.
SW flow tngt. Winds generally aob 11kt, but a few gusts possible
thru 00Z particularly NYC terminals. Winds back to the SSW on Tue,
with increasing speeds in the aftn. Some gusts to around 20-25 kt
possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ocnl gusts possible thru 00Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tuesday: Becoming MVFR Tue ngt. SSW flow increasing thru the
period, especially aloft with LLWS possible aft 6Z Wed.
Wednesday: MVFR becoming IFR and lower with periods of rain. Isold
tstms possible. LLWS can be expected. SSW winds 20-30 kt with some
gusts around 40kt, especially S shore.
Thursday: Mainly VFR with gusty W flow.
Friday: VFR with W flow.
Saturday: VFR with NW flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure shifts offshore tonight into Tuesday and results in a
southerly return flow. The flow strengthens ahead of an approaching
frontal system, with SCA criteria expected on the ocean waters by 1
PM Tuesday. The flow continues to strengthen, and by 1 PM Wednesday
gale conditions are possible on all waters. There is now a Gale
Watch in effect for all waters. Peak wind gusts are expected
Wednesday evening, with gusts up to 40 kt possible. Peak seas on the
ocean will be late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, up to 14
feet. Waves on the northern half of the LI Sound look to top out
around 5 feet.
Winds may briefly subside below SCA levels Thursday morning but
should increase again in the afternoon and evening with a steepening
pressure gradient. SCA conditions are likely Thursday night into
Friday with potential of gales, especially on the ocean waters, and
lasting into Friday morning. Winds should start to weaken late
Friday and may fall below SCA levels late Friday night. Seas will be
hazardous between 8-12 ft on the ocean Thursday into Friday morning
and then subside closer to 5 ft Friday night. Waves on the LI Sound
may build to 3-6 ft Thursday night. A westerly flow near 15 kt then
sustains sub-advisory conditions through Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system impacting the region Wednesday and Wednesday night
should produce QPF of 1.0 to 1.5 inches, with the higher totals
expected inland. Rainfall rates could approach 1/2 to 3/4 inch in
spots at the time of heaviest rainfall, which would lead to nuisance
urban and poor drainage flooding.
No hydrological impacts are expected thereafter.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT