505
FXUS61 KOKX 051439
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
939 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure will track to our north and west and send a
pre-frontal trough through the area this evening and then a
cold front Thursday morning. The low slowly departs to the
northeast through Friday. A weak frontal system then passes
nearby on Saturday. Another low pressure system should pass well
to the south on Sunday as weak high pressure moves in through
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures across portions of northeast NJ are already close
to the forecast high temperature for today. Therefore, increased
high temperatures a few degrees. With cloud cover, don`t think
temperatures will rise too much from where they are now.
Additionally, adjusted POPs down a bit given current radar and
mesoscale model forecasts.
Deepening low pressure approaches from the west today. It is
currently located over the Middle Mississippi Valley and will track
northeastward over the Great Lakes. As it lifts, the associated
upper level low will open up and become negatively tilted. Out ahead
of the low, the pressure gradient gradually tightens and a
strengthening southerly wind will advect in an anomalous amount
of moisture for this time of year.
There is great agreement across the CAMs that a batch of showers
will move through from west to east late this afternoon through
early tonight ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Given the anomalous
moisture (dewpoints near 50 degrees and pwats around 1.25
inches) and strong, deep lift, moderate to locally heavy showers
are expected. See hydrology section below. There is very little
instability aloft, but will keep mention of isolated thunder in
the forecast as it can not be ruled out.
While a strong low level jet will move over the area, a decent
inversion will keep much of this wind aloft. 65 to 75 knots is
progged at 925mb. Gusts will likely not be higher than 50-60% of
those values, which falls short of Wind Advisory criteria. Gusts
peak this evening and overnight, with 40 mph gusts possible across
Long Island and 30 to 35 mph gusts elsewhere.
The deep S/SW flow will allow some western and interior areas to
warm up to the upper 50s and potentially hit 60. Across Long
Island and Southern CT the onshore flow will keep temps in the
low to mid 50s, still above normal for early March. Areas on the
immediate coastline likely do not make it out of the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front moves through Thursday morning, with the upper level
trough axis lagging behind. This will allow for some cloud
cover and lingering rain shower chances. A strong northwest flow
doesn`t pick up until Thursday night. Went higher than NBM 90th
percentile with forecast soundings showing mixing up to 850mb
in strong CAA. Current forecast has widespread 45 mph gusts.
Have held off with any Wind Advisory for now given the marginal
values.
Above normal temps continue Thursday and Friday. Highs will be
in the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak trough and low will pass south of the area Friday night into
Saturday morning. While it will remain mostly dry, can not rule out
a brief rain or snow shower during this period. Otherwise, expect m
mostly sunny conditions for Saturday afternoon with highs in the
middle and upper 40s. Model consensus then keeps a stronger area of
low pressure and associated precip well to our south on Sunday.
A fast flow aloft brings uncertainty regarding the timing and
strength of weak clipper-type lows or troughs potentially shifting
nearby during the Sunday night through Monday period. In any case,
moisture is limited, so will go with a dry forecast for the time
being. Ridging at the surface and aloft with a SW flow then brings
us milder weather for Tuesday. The dry conditions will continue into
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
**HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT**
Deepening low pressure will lift into the Great Lakes today,
sending a strong frontal system into the area this afternoon and
this evening.
Still maintaining a mainly VFR forecast until late afternoon or
early evening, with the exception of MVFR at KSWF. That being
said, it`s still not out of the question for lower conditions to
develop sooner or at least be occasional with scattered showers.
A strong low level jet ahead of the low and approaching cold
front resulted in LLWS which continues into tonight. At this
time of year, with the cold ocean waters and warm air moving
across them, there will be a strong inversion in place. This
will limit the magnitude of the wind getting to the surface, but
still expect gusts of 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon and at
night. Isolated gusts up to 40 kt at the coastal terminals.
Winds at top of the inversion around 2000 ft will peak at 55 to
65 kt.
Heavy showers are expected with a pre-frontal trough and strong low-
level jet during the evening hours Wednesday. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible, but confidence is too low to put in any
TAFs at this time.
Most of the precipitation and LLWS ends around or after 06z,
with IFR or lower conditions expected til 12z or so. Improvement
back to VFR is then expected Thursday morning around 15-16z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments today, especially this afternoon, with the changing
of flight categories and onset of precipitation. MVFR or lower
may develop earlier than forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Conditions improve to VFR early. Gusty WNW winds
developing in the afternoon, increasing to 15-20 kt G25-35 kt. A
few gusts to around 40 kt possible at night.
Friday: VFR. W winds G25-30kt.
Saturday: VFR with W winds G15-20kt possible.
Sunday: VFR with NW/W winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Headlines remain unchanged with the latest forecast for today
and tonight. A southerly flow will strengthen today and peak
this evening and overnight. A Gale Warning remains in effect on
the ocean waters, NY Harbor and South Shore Bays starting at 6
AM. SCA are in effect elsewhere. Peak wind gusts tonight over
the Gale Warning areas will be around 40 knots. On the SCA
areas, peak gusts will be just below gale criteria (30 to 33
knots). There is potential for some waters to be upgraded to a
Gale Warning later today depending on observations and new model
guidance. With the strong winds, seas over the ocean could
reach 12 feet, with waves on the LI Sound reaching 4-5 feet.
There will be a lull in the action on Thursday, when winds fall
below SCA criteria, but 5+ foot waves linger on the ocean. By
Thursday night, a northwest flow picks up and we likely see a return
on Gale conditions. These gusts will subside on Friday.
Sub-SCA conditions on the non-ocean waters for Friday night, but
advisory thresholds will probably still be met on the ocean as winds
and seas take longer to subside. Sub-advisory conditions will be
likely for the upcoming weekend, but winds and seas on the ocean
could be close to criteria at times. The next chance for SCA
conditions on the ocean won`t return until late Monday afternoon or
Monday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system impacting the region today and tonight will likely
bring a total of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, with locally higher
amounts possible. The higher totals are expected inland. Rainfall
rates could approach 1/2 inch per hour in spots at the time of
heaviest rainfall, which could lead to nuisance urban and poor
drainage flooding.
No hydrological impacts are expected Thursday through early next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will remain low through the end of the week.
Intensifying southerly flow ahead of a strong storm system will
increase tide levels during tonight night/early Thursday
morning high tide. Surge of 1.5 to 3 ft is needed to reach minor
flooding benchmarks. The strongest winds may actually occur
before high tide, limiting the surge somewhat during high tide.
Most locations should remain at or below action stage. However,
some of the most vulnerable locations across the south shore
back bays and western Sound could touch minor flooding
benchmarks.
Large breaking waves 8-10 ft are forecast late Wednesday into
Wednesday night along the oceanfront, with beach flooding and
erosion possible.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
335-340.
Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...BC/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...