809
FXUS61 KOKX 060149
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
849 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through overnight as low pressure over the Great Lakes lifts north into southern Ontario and Quebec into Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front as the low slowly departs to the northeast through Friday. A weak frontal system then passes nearby Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure will then be in control for the rest of the weekend and into the first half of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Moderate to briefly heavy showers will continue to push east across Long Island and CT over the next few hours from west to east. No thunder expected based on a lack of CAPE and what has transpired so far. Expecting another half inch to inch of rain this evening, with the heavier amounts east of NYC. A cold front in association with a strong surface low over the Great Lakes Region will move through during the overnight hours. Showers along this line are expected to dissipate, but can`t rule out a shower late at night. LLJ will be shifting east through the evening with gusts 35-45 mph mainly over LI and CT, but still up to around 35 mph in the city this evening. Winds diminish during the overnight hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The surface low continues to lift slowly north into Quebec on Thursday and into Thursday night as the cold front pushes farther offshore. Mid level short wave moves through Thursday morning, pushing east by the afternoon. This could provide enough lift and instability for some isolated showers to move through, but much of the area should remain dry for the day Thursday. Cold advection looks to hold off until Thursday night, as winds increase once again, with the low in Canada slowly strengthening and the high to the west building in, providing a decent pressure gradient. However, winds look to be a bit weaker than previous forecast for Thursday night. Current forecast has northwest winds gusting to around 30 mph. Winds may be a bit too low, and there remains a possibility for a Wind Advisory for Thursday night, however, it looks less likely now. Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday, with highs in the 50s for much of the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fairly tight pressure gradient remains in place through Friday, with models trending a little stronger from 24 hours ago regarding winds. Thinking is that gusts 30-40 mph will be common with the potential of a few gusts around 45 mph. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have held off on issuing any wind headlines as this would be a mainly late 3rd period to 4th period event. Advisories could eventually be needed, but confidence is also not high enough at this time. Highs on Friday slightly above normal at around 50 in NYC metro, and mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A weak trough or low center then passes not too far to our south late Friday night into Saturday morning with only a stray sprinkle or flurry possible. High pressure otherwise remains in control of the weather Sunday through Wednesday. With that said, a weak low and trough pass to our north on Monday, but likely far enough away to have no impacts here. A gradual warmup occurs during this period with highs on Sunday near normal in the mid to upper 40s, then eventually getting well into the 50s and 60s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... **HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER TONIGHT** Low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes through this evening, then into southeastern Canada tonight into Thursday, sending a frontal system through the area. Mainly MVFR, but occasional IFR with a line of showers producing heavy rain at times as it moves through this evening from west to east. There is some redevelopment to the south of NYC on the nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This line pushes east of LI and SE CT by midnight, but scattered showers will linger behind through the overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. IFR conditions likely become more prevalent later tonight as winds begin to weaken. Conditions then improve from west to east Thursday morning with the cold frontal passage, 10-12Z for the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals, 12-14Z for KBDR and KISP, and as late as 20Z at KGON. LLWS remains at all the terminals tonight, ending 05Z/06Z west and 09Z east. Strong southerly winds and gusts continue into this evening. However, there is some uncertainty as to how strong gusts will be with a low level inversion in place, limiting mixing of the higher winds aloft. As the cold front approaches late tonight, winds diminish and gust end before returning Thursday in a westerly flow behind the cold front. Gust will be slow to increase on Thursday becoming strongest Thursday night at 25-35kt. A few gusts up to 40 kt possible. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely through late tonight with changing of flight categories and intensity of precipitation. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night: VFR. WNW winds 15-20 kt G25-35 kt. A few gusts of 35 to 40 kt. Friday: VFR. W winds G25-35 kt. Saturday: VFR with W winds G15-20 kt possible. Sunday - Monday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Gale warning has been expanded to include LI Sound and the eastern bays based on obs and a strong llj shifting through the waters. Decided to simplify the headlines by making the Gales for all waters expire at 09z. It`s likely that gales will not be a threat at least over NY harbor and Western LI Sound by even before midnight but as per office policy decided to message the higher-level hazard and not have a double headline in the same forecast period. Most spots may even have below 25 kt winds by 09z with fairly quick drop off of winds behind the llj. There will be a lull in the action on Thursday, when winds fall below SCA criteria, but waves remain at 5 to 12 ft on the ocean. By Thursday night, a northwest flow picks up and we likely see a return on gale conditions. The gale watch for later on in the forecast period has been extended on all waters through Friday as guidance has trended stronger with winds. Winds will subside through Friday night with conditions falling below advisory thresholds on the non-ocean waters. As for the ocean waters, most of Friday night through Saturday night could see marginal advisory conditions. Sunday and Monday otherwise feature sub-advisory conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... An additional 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain anticipated for tonight with the higher amounts over CT and LI. Nuisance urban and poor drainage flooding still possible. No hydrological impacts are expected Thursday through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides will remain low through the end of the week. Intensifying southerly flow ahead of a strong storm system will increase tide levels during tonight night/early Thursday morning high tide. Surge of 1.5 to 3 ft is needed to reach minor flooding benchmarks. The strongest winds may actually occur before high tide, limiting the surge somewhat during high tide. Most locations should remain at or below action stage. However, some of the most vulnerable locations across the south shore back bays and western Sound could touch minor flooding benchmarks. Large breaking waves 8-10 ft are forecast tonight along the oceanfront, with beach flooding and erosion possible. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JP NEAR TERM...JP/JC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MET/DW MARINE...JC/JP HYDROLOGY...JC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...