809
FXUS61 KOKX 060149
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
849 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves through overnight as low pressure over the
Great Lakes lifts north into southern Ontario and Quebec into
Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front as the
low slowly departs to the northeast through Friday. A weak
frontal system then passes nearby Friday night into Saturday
morning. High pressure will then be in control for the rest of
the weekend and into the first half of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Moderate to briefly heavy showers will continue to push east
across Long Island and CT over the next few hours from west to
east. No thunder expected based on a lack of CAPE and what has
transpired so far. Expecting another half inch to inch of rain
this evening, with the heavier amounts east of NYC.
A cold front in association with a strong surface low over the
Great Lakes Region will move through during the overnight hours.
Showers along this line are expected to dissipate, but can`t
rule out a shower late at night.
LLJ will be shifting east through the evening with gusts 35-45
mph mainly over LI and CT, but still up to around 35 mph in the
city this evening. Winds diminish during the overnight hours.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low continues to lift slowly north into Quebec on
Thursday and into Thursday night as the cold front pushes farther
offshore. Mid level short wave moves through Thursday morning,
pushing east by the afternoon. This could provide enough lift and
instability for some isolated showers to move through, but much of
the area should remain dry for the day Thursday.
Cold advection looks to hold off until Thursday night, as winds
increase once again, with the low in Canada slowly strengthening and
the high to the west building in, providing a decent pressure
gradient. However, winds look to be a bit weaker than previous
forecast for Thursday night. Current forecast has northwest winds
gusting to around 30 mph. Winds may be a bit too low, and there
remains a possibility for a Wind Advisory for Thursday night,
however, it looks less likely now.
Above normal temperatures are expected Thursday, with highs
in the 50s for much of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A fairly tight pressure gradient remains in place through Friday,
with models trending a little stronger from 24 hours ago regarding
winds. Thinking is that gusts 30-40 mph will be common with the
potential of a few gusts around 45 mph. After collaboration with the
surrounding offices, have held off on issuing any wind headlines as
this would be a mainly late 3rd period to 4th period event.
Advisories could eventually be needed, but confidence is also not
high enough at this time. Highs on Friday slightly above normal at
around 50 in NYC metro, and mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A weak
trough or low center then passes not too far to our south late
Friday night into Saturday morning with only a stray sprinkle or
flurry possible.
High pressure otherwise remains in control of the weather Sunday
through Wednesday. With that said, a weak low and trough pass to our
north on Monday, but likely far enough away to have no impacts here.
A gradual warmup occurs during this period with highs on Sunday near
normal in the mid to upper 40s, then eventually getting well into
the 50s and 60s on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER TONIGHT**
Low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes through this evening,
then into southeastern Canada tonight into Thursday, sending a
frontal system through the area.
Mainly MVFR, but occasional IFR with a line of showers producing
heavy rain at times as it moves through this evening from west
to east. There is some redevelopment to the south of NYC on the
nose of a strengthening low-level jet. This line pushes east of
LI and SE CT by midnight, but scattered showers will linger
behind through the overnight ahead of the approaching cold
front. IFR conditions likely become more prevalent later tonight
as winds begin to weaken. Conditions then improve from west to
east Thursday morning with the cold frontal passage, 10-12Z for
the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals, 12-14Z for KBDR and
KISP, and as late as 20Z at KGON.
LLWS remains at all the terminals tonight, ending 05Z/06Z west
and 09Z east. Strong southerly winds and gusts continue into
this evening. However, there is some uncertainty as to how
strong gusts will be with a low level inversion in place,
limiting mixing of the higher winds aloft. As the cold front
approaches late tonight, winds diminish and gust end before
returning Thursday in a westerly flow behind the cold front.
Gust will be slow to increase on Thursday becoming strongest
Thursday night at 25-35kt. A few gusts up to 40 kt possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through late tonight with changing of flight
categories and intensity of precipitation.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: VFR. WNW winds 15-20 kt G25-35 kt. A few gusts
of 35 to 40 kt.
Friday: VFR. W winds G25-35 kt.
Saturday: VFR with W winds G15-20 kt possible.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gale warning has been expanded to include LI Sound and the
eastern bays based on obs and a strong llj shifting through the
waters. Decided to simplify the headlines by making the Gales
for all waters expire at 09z. It`s likely that gales will not
be a threat at least over NY harbor and Western LI Sound by even
before midnight but as per office policy decided to message the
higher-level hazard and not have a double headline in the same
forecast period. Most spots may even have below 25 kt winds by
09z with fairly quick drop off of winds behind the llj.
There will be a lull in the action on Thursday, when winds fall
below SCA criteria, but waves remain at 5 to 12 ft on the ocean.
By Thursday night, a northwest flow picks up and we likely see
a return on gale conditions. The gale watch for later on in the
forecast period has been extended on all waters through Friday
as guidance has trended stronger with winds.
Winds will subside through Friday night with conditions
falling below advisory thresholds on the non-ocean waters. As for
the ocean waters, most of Friday night through Saturday night could
see marginal advisory conditions. Sunday and Monday otherwise
feature sub-advisory conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
An additional 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain anticipated for tonight
with the higher amounts over CT and LI. Nuisance urban and poor
drainage flooding still possible.
No hydrological impacts are expected Thursday through early next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will remain low through the end of the week.
Intensifying southerly flow ahead of a strong storm system will
increase tide levels during tonight night/early Thursday
morning high tide. Surge of 1.5 to 3 ft is needed to reach minor
flooding benchmarks. The strongest winds may actually occur
before high tide, limiting the surge somewhat during high tide.
Most locations should remain at or below action stage. However,
some of the most vulnerable locations across the south shore
back bays and western Sound could touch minor flooding
benchmarks.
Large breaking waves 8-10 ft are forecast tonight along the
oceanfront, with beach flooding and erosion possible.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...