776
FXUS61 KOKX 061511
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1011 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area this morning. Associated low
pressure gradually departs to the northeast through Saturday night,
with another cold front swinging through Saturday morning. High
pressure will then be in control for the rest of the weekend and
into the first half of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog continues to improve from west to east as cold front moves
east. Extended the Special Weather Statement until just after
11 am. However, with temperatures warming, conditions will
likely improve for most locations prior to this time frame.
Added a slight chance for showers for the rest of morning with
this cold front moving through, which is setting off some light
showers, mainly for Long Island and southern CT. These showers
will translate east through the morning, but may weaken as they
do so.
Low pressure passes through the Great Lakes and drags a cold front
through the area this morning. The associated upper level trough
axis will lag behind several hours as it becomes negatively tilted
and likely passes through late this evening. With another area of
low pressure trying to spin up just to our north today, the pressure
gradient remains relatively weak through at least the morning. Once
the low makes it a bit farther east this afternoon and evening, the
W/NW flow starts to pick up.
The heaviest showers are now east of the area. There remains
potential for isolated to scattered showers through the day today
with cyclonic flow aloft.
With the strong CAA not kicking in right away, the area should be
able to warm up to the 50s today.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The pressure gradient tightens tonight as low pressure gradually
exits to the northeast. The area stays well mixed tonight through
Friday, with winds increasing aloft. Model NAM and GFS soundings
show mixing up to at least 850mb for an extended period of time,
with 50+ kt at this level. HREF mean also shows deep mixing,
with multiple hours tonight showing 40+ kt max momentum transfer
and 50+ kt on Friday. NBM and NBM90th percentile guidance was
too low given the potential, so went with a blend of NAM 900mb
winds and NBM90th to get several hours of widespread 40 to 45 kt
gusts. Isolated gusts up to 50 kt can not be ruled out. A Wind
Advisory is now in effect everywhere from 6 PM this evening
through Friday afternoon. There will be a lull in gusts Friday
night, but with deep mixing again on Saturday there will likely
be 30 to 35 kt gusts.
Mostly dry in this short term period, but with a weakening system
approaching from the west and another cold front passing through
there is potential for some brief rain and snow showers Friday
night/early Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains in control of the weather Sunday through
Wednesday. With that said, a weak low and trough pass to our
north on Monday, but likely far enough away to have no impacts
here. A gradual warmup occurs during this period with highs on
Sunday near normal in the mid to upper 40s, then eventually
getting well into the 50s and 60s on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves through the eastern most terminals over the
next few hours. High pressure builds back into the area behind
the front through the remainder of the TAF period.
Conditions continue to improve east of the NYC terminals, with
improvement arriving after midday for eastern most terminals like
KGON. Improvement to VFR could be possibly as late as 20Z at KGON.
Gusts will gradually ramp up in the westerly flow behind the cold
front, increasing to 30-40kt tonight. Can not rule out a few gusts
over 40 kt. The gusty winds continue into Friday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible with the onset of gusts behind the cold front
this morning and early this afternoon as gusts may be slower to come
up than currently forecast.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. W winds G25-35 kt, a few peak gusts up to 45 kt
possible.
Saturday: VFR with W winds G15-20 kt possible.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
The Dense Fog Advisory continues for the south shore bays, the
central and eastern ocean zones, the central and eastern sound,
and Peconic and Gardiner`s bays until noon. However, with the
cold front moving through and temperatures warming, visibilities
will likely improve prior to noon.
Gale conditions have ended for now, but will return this evening
through Friday with 40 to 45 kt W/NW gusts. Before that, SCA
conditions continue on the ocean for elevated seas and also for
the NY Harbor, South Shore Bays and western LI Sound as they
will see a period of 25 kt gusts this afternoon before the Gale
Warning.
There will be a lull in gusts Friday night, with 5+ foot seas
continuing on the ocean. By Saturday, gusty conditions return, with
just shy of gale conditions likely as of right. Confidence is not
high enough for a watch or HWO mention at this time.
Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although the area saw 1-2 inches of rain on Wednesday, windy and dry
conditions Friday and Saturday will allow for an increased risk in
fire spread. Both days will see min RH values around 30 percent.
Gusts on Friday are expected to reach 45 to 50 mph, with gusts on
Saturday around 30 to 35 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ331-332-340-345-
350-353.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this
evening for ANZ335-338-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT