872
FXUS61 KOKX 071440
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
940 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure gradually departs to the northeast through tonight. A
cold front moves through Saturday morning followed by high pressure
building in through Sunday morning. A surface trough moves through
Sunday night. High pressure will then remain in control Monday
through Wednesday. Another frontal system approaches towards the end
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this morning. Winds will continue to gust
toward 50 mph thru mid afternoon or so. Dry conditions prevail
under abundant sunshine. Previous discussion follows.
Heights rise aloft today as the upper level trough axis is finally
to our east. By late tonight heights lower a bit ahead of an
approaching shortwave. At the surface, low pressure continues to
gradually depart to the northeast and the pressure gradient over the
area remains tight during the daytime hours. The gradient slackens a
bit overnight as a weakening frontal system gets absorbed into the
broader low to our northeast.
Strong winds continue today with the tight pressure gradient and
deep mixing. The Wind Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM.
Forecast wind gusts have not changed much from the previous
forecasts. Model soundings show mixing up to around 850mb through
the day across our whole area. Winds at that height are 40 to 50 kt
through the morning hours and then drop a few kt for the afternoon.
For hourly wind gust forecast went with a blend of NAM 900mb winds
and the NBM90th percentile wind gusts. This gave several hours of
widespread 45-50 mph gusts. Isolated gusts of 55 mph are likely,
with the potential for a few 60 mph gusts, mainly through the
morning hours. We decouple tonight and will get a lull in the gusty
winds.
The aforementioned weakening frontal system approaches the area
tonight along with another cold front. As a result, we may see some
light rain/snow showers. Have slight chance to chance PoPs
everywhere except southern CT. No snow accumulation is expected at
this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front moves through Saturday morning and we
once again get deep mixing in CAA. Winds aloft are not as strong, so
not expecting Wind Advisory levels, but still likely see gusts up to
35 mph. Gusts were derived the same way as mentioned above.
High pressure noses in from the south through Sunday morning, but
then another shortwave and surface trough move through Sunday night.
This likely does not result in any showers and should just bring
increased cloud cover. Gusty winds expected again Sunday during the
day, but topping out at 30 mph.
Stuck close to NBM for temps during this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains in control Monday through Wednesday. However,
a weak low and trough pass to our north on Monday, along with a low
pressure passing south of the region Monday night and Tuesday. Both
are expected to remain far enough away to have no impacts here. A
gradual warmup occurs during this period with highs Monday getting
into the 50s, with 50s and 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is
some uncertainty with the timing of a cold front on Thursday into
Thursday night. Will continue to carry just chance POPs for now.
Temperatures will remain rather mild with temperatures reaching the
50s and 60s once again on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The region remains between strong low pressure to the north and high
pressure to the south. Troughs of low pressure pivot through during
the period.
VFR.
W gusts mainly between 35-40kt today, with peak gusts of 45 kt
possible at a few terminals this morning. Winds start to diminish
late this afternoon and this evening. There will likely be a period
tonight where the gusts end for a few hours, mainly after 06z for
the city terminals and maybe a few hours sooner for outlying
terminals towards 02-02z. Gusts however do redevelop once again
Saturday morning with gusts getting close to 30kt towards midday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments are expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR with WNW winds 15-20G30kt.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, SW-S winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale conditions continue through the day for all waters with 35 to
40 kt W-NW gusts. There will be a lull in winds tonight, although a
Small Craft Advisory will be needed on the ocean waters for the
lingering 5 ft seas. By Saturday, gusts reach 30 kt, with potential
for gales late in the day for the eastern LI Sound, Peconic and
Gardiners Bays and the ocean zone south of Montauk. Confidence is
still not high enough for a watch, but have mentioned in the HWO.
There will then be another lull Saturday night before SCA gusts
return again on Sunday, with 25 to 30 kt gusts.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across all waters Monday into
Tuesday morning. Seas may build back to SCA levels late Tuesday into
Tuesday night as low pressure passes well south of the area. Seas
fall back below 5ft on Wednesday. SCA conditions return towards the
end of the week with the approach of a cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although the area saw 1-2 inches of rain on Wednesday, windy and dry
conditions today and Saturday will allow for an increased risk in
fire spread. Both days will see min RH values around 30 percent.
Gusts on Friday are expected to reach 45 to 50 mph, with gusts on
Saturday around 30 to 35 mph. However, in coordination with fire
partners, no products are expected at this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JE
MARINE...BC/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT