910
FXUS61 KOKX 072253
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
553 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure continues to gradually exit the region into
tonight as the center lifts north and east toward Newfoundland.
A weakening frontal system passes through early Saturday, with
a high beginning to build in thereafter from the west. High
pressure then largely maintains control of the area through next
week, though there will be a few weak disturbances that move
by.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track this evening with adjustments to
temperature and dew point to account for the latest
observations.
Pressure gradient gradually relaxes this evening. Already
seeing speeds lower as of late day, and have allowed the Wind
Advisory that`s been in place to expire. Still expect blustery
conditions into this evening, with gusts more in the 30 to 35
mph range.
Otherwise, shearing weak area of low pressure with attendant
cold front slides thru the region and off the coast overnight.
With little forcing and moisture, not anticipating much more
than a mid level cloud deck locally, though can`t rule out a few
spotty light rain or snow showers, likely confined to Long
Island, NYC, and NE NJ if any were to occur. Hi res CAMs keep
most dry, with measurable precip confined offshore. Temperatures
overnight bottom out just below freezing across the interior,
to the mid 30s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Early morning cloud cover erodes by afternoon, setting up abundant
sunshine to start the weekend. Conditions remain gusty though,
another day with a well mixed BL above 800 mb, thanks to CAA
from the north and west. Though the flow aloft is gradually
relaxing, still progging up to 40 kt at the top of the layer,
which should keep conditions gusty thru the day. Values likely
largely fall short of Advisory criteria, so no headline, but
expect frequent gusts 30 to 35 mph, with a few likely topping 40
mph.
Given the CAA, Saturday is likely the coldest day of the next week
or so, though nothing notable for March standards. In fact,
afternoon highs won`t be too far from climo normals this time of
year, generally topping out in the low to mid 40s. The blustery
conditions will add an extra chill however, so anticipate wind
chills in the 30s much of the day.
Conditions will also be dry to start the weekend. Deep mixing in the
daytime should bring RH values down to around 30 percent. Coupled
with the gusty NW wind, conditions could pose fire weather
concerns. See Fire Weather section below for further detail.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The area remains in a subtle longwave trough on Sunday with a low
pressure system passing well to the north of the area. Embedded mid-
level energy passes overhead resulting in a weak surface trough
which may briefly tighten the pressure gradient. This would make for
an increase in the wind ahead of and behind the surface trough on
Sunday. This may also result in localized increased cloud cover but
no precipitation.
High pressure then gradually builds over the area through the
beginning of the week as the longwave mid-level flow becomes more
zonal. An increased S/SW flow remains over the area from the
beginning to the middle of the week as another low pressure passes
well north of the area. Though a cold front moves through Tuesday
into Tuesday night, dry conditions are expected. High pressure then
remains in control much of the rest of the week as low pressure
systems pass to the north and south of the area. The only chance for
some light rain showers is Thursday with the potential for weak mid-
level energy to break off a developing low over the Central US, but
capped this potential at slight chance or a low end chance as there
isn`t much model consensus as of now.
The most noticeable sensible weather change in the long term is the
gradual warm up of the area through much of next week. Highs
temperatures on Sunday will be generally in the middle 40s to near
50. By Monday, highs will be in the middle 50s to near 60 for the
NYC metro and N NJ. The warming trend continues into midweek with
highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 50s to middle to upper 60s
for western portions of the area under a S/SW flow. Temperatures may
moderate a little bit toward the end of the week but should remain
in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region remains between strong low pressure to the north and high
pressure to the south. Troughs of low pressure pivot through during
the period.
VFR.
W gusts are now beginning to decrease. Winds diminish quickly this
evening. Have bumped up the end time of gusts this evening across
all terminals as most gusts should end by 02-03z. Some outlying
terminals may have winds decrease close to 5 to 7 kts for a time
late tonight. Gusts however do redevelop once again Saturday morning
with gusts getting near 30kt towards midday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments are expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR with WNW winds 15-20G30kt.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR, SW-S winds.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds are diminishing below gale force so replaced the Gale
Warning with a Small Craft Advisory through Saturday.
Thereafter, a bit of a lull in conditions overnight before
speeds increase once again, with 30 kt gusts likely during the
day, and occasional gale force gusts possible. Winds briefly
lighten once again Saturday night.
SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean on Sunday with
gusts near 25kt as a surface trough moves through the area. Sub-
SCA conditions are then expected through the beginning of next
week. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Tuesday night
into Wednesday with a cold frontal passage possibly bringing
gusts to near 25 kt again with wave heights on the ocean near 5
feet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy and dry conditions will couple to allow for an increased
risk in fire spread on Saturday. Relative humidity values are
forecast to sit around 30 percent in the afternoon, with
frequent gusts 30 to 35 mph. In coordination with fire weather
partners, a Special Weather Statement was hoisted across all
areas tomorrow to highlight this elevated danger should ignition
occur.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW