484
FXUS61 KOKX 081425
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
925 AM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes through the area this morning, followed by
high pressure building in from the west through Sunday morning.
A weak disturbance passes through the the area Sunday afternoon.
Deepening low pressure will then pass well to the south Monday
into Monday night with weak high pressure across the area. A
weak cold front passes through the area Wednesday, otherwise
high pressure generally remains in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few flurries and/or snow showers working SE along a cold front
moving across the Lower Hudson Valley this morning. This will be
brief and poses no hazard. Cold front will pass through the
remainder of the area with over the next couple of hours with
generally no more than a few clouds and perhaps a flurry.
Gusty conditions again today as deep mixing is expected with
CAA behind the cold front. Winds aloft are a bit weaker, so only
expecting 30 to 35 mph gusts. Some isolated 40 to 45 mph gusts
can`t be ruled out, especially during the afternoon for eastern
CT and eastern Long Island.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure briefly builds in Sunday morning, but a shortwave and
associated surface trough look to move through in the afternoon. The
shortwave looks strong enough to spark isolated rain/snow showers
across the area. The CAMs have picked up on this activity. Gusty
conditions expected again on Sunday, up to about 30 mph.
The flow lightens on Monday and turns to the southwest. This will
aid in northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC warming up to
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Long Island and the CT coast likely do
not make it out of the lower to mid 50s as is typical this time of
year due to the marine influence.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the previous forecast/NBM.
A weak cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday night with dry
conditions expected. High pressure then remains in control much of
the rest of the week as low pressure systems pass to the north and
south of the area. The only chance for some light rain showers is
Thursday with the potential for weak mid-level energy to break off a
developing low over the Central US, but capped this potential at
slight chance or a low end chance as there isn`t much model
consensus as of now.
Temperatures on Tuesday will range from the 50s to lower/middle 60s.
High will then remain in the 50s for the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The region remains between strong low pressure to the northeast
and high pressure to the southwest.
VFR. Increasing WNW winds into this aftn. Gusts to around 30kt
by noon, lasting through the afternoon before winds diminish
tonight. Gusts pick back up on Sun with direction backed
slightly to the WSW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments may be needed for wind gusts today.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR, SW-S gusts up to 20kt PM.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
There will be a lull in winds early this morning, but a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all waters as gusts ramp up around 10
AM. Gusts peak this afternoon around 30 kt, with potential for a
brief period of 35 kt gusts for the eastern LI Sound, Peconic and
Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters south of Montauk.
There will be another lull in winds tonight before SCA conditions
return to all waters on Sunday with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Thereafter,
conditions look to stay below SCA criteria.
The next chance for SCA conditions will be Tuesday night into
Wednesday with a cold frontal passage possibly bringing gusts to
near 25 kt again with wave heights on the ocean near 5 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy and dry conditions will couple to allow for an increased risk
in fire spread today. Relative humidity values are forecast to
sit around 30 percent in the afternoon, with frequent gusts 30
to 35 mph. In coordination with fire weather partners, a Special
Weather Statement was hoisted across all areas tomorrow to
highlight this elevated danger should ignition occur.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/JMC
MARINE...BC/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT