294
FXUS61 KOKX 081754
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1254 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Following a cold frontal passage, high pressure will gradually
build in from the west through Sunday morning. The center of the
high passes well south on Sunday, while weak low pressure
passes to the north. A much stronger area of low pressure will
also pass well to the south Monday into Monday night. A weak
cold front passes through the area Wednesday, otherwise high
pressure generally remains in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front has worked south of the area with a gusty NW flow in
its wake. For this update, temperatures had to be bumped up a
few degrees, with highs generally in the lowers 40s inland, to
the upper 40s along the coast. A 50 degree reading is not out of
the question across the NYC metro.
Gusty conditions with deep mixing and CAA this afternoon, generally
30 to 40 mph possible, with a few higher gusts possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure briefly builds in Sunday morning, but a shortwave and
associated surface trough look to move through in the afternoon. The
shortwave looks strong enough to spark isolated rain/snow showers
across the area. The CAMs have picked up on this activity. Gusty
conditions expected again on Sunday, up to about 30 mph.
The flow lightens on Monday and turns to the southwest. This will
aid in northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC warming up to
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Long Island and the CT coast likely do
not make it out of the lower to mid 50s as is typical this time of
year due to the marine influence.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the previous forecast/NBM.
A weak cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday night with dry
conditions expected. High pressure then remains in control much of
the rest of the week as low pressure systems pass to the north and
south of the area. The only chance for some light rain showers is
Thursday with the potential for weak mid-level energy to break off a
developing low over the Central US, but capped this potential at
slight chance or a low end chance as there isn`t much model
consensus as of now.
Temperatures on Tuesday will range from the 50s to lower/middle 60s.
High will then remain in the 50s for the remainder of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres builds S of the area into Sun. A sfc trof moves
across late Sun.
VFR thru the TAF period. Strong NW flow gradually diminishes
23-06Z, backs a bit to the W, then increases out of the SW aft
14Z Sun. Winds veer to the WNW late Sun behind the trof.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Peak gusts may be blw 30kt aft 22Z. There could be a spike in
winds abv the current fcst in the 17-22Z time period Sun.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Rest of Sunday: VFR. Decreasing winds aft 22-00Z.
Monday: VFR with W/VRB flow.
Tuesday: VFR with S flow.
Wednesday: VFR with N flow.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
There will be a lull in winds early this morning, but a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all waters as gusts ramp up around 10
AM. Gusts peak this afternoon around 30 kt, with potential for a
brief period of 35 kt gusts for the eastern LI Sound, Peconic and
Gardiners Bays and the ocean waters south of Montauk.
There will be another lull in winds tonight before SCA conditions
return to all waters on Sunday with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Thereafter,
conditions look to stay below SCA criteria.
The next chance for SCA conditions will be Tuesday night into
Wednesday with a cold frontal passage possibly bringing gusts to
near 25 kt again with wave heights on the ocean near 5 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Windy and dry conditions will couple to allow for an increased risk
in fire spread today. Minimum RH vales are forecast to drop to
20 to 30 percent, with frequent gusts 30 to 40 mph. In coordination
with fire weather partners, a Special Weather Statement remains
up for all today to highlight this elevated danger should
ignition occur.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT