okx-afd on 2025-03-08

979
FXUS61 KOKX 082357
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
657 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys builds east
tonight, and off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday. A series of
weak lows will then pass north of the area Sunday into Sunday
night. A much stronger area of low pressure will then pass well
to the south Monday into Monday night. An associated cold front
moves across late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High
pressure generally remains in control through the remainder of
the week. A developing frontal system begins to approach next
Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minor adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, winds
and cloud coverage to better match observed trends. Clear sky
conditions with decreasing temperatures this evening. Forecast
overall remains on track. RH levels will be on a rising trend.

An upper trough across eastern Canada and into the Northeast
will steer a few more shortwaves across the area through the
weekend before lifting out. At the same time, low pressure
weakens over the Canadian Maritimes and weak high pressure
builds east from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys tonight. This
will result in a colder night with gradually diminishing winds
into morning. Under clear skies, lows will range from the mid
20s inland to around freezing across the NYC metro. This is a
bit below normal, but will feel even colder in the WNW flow.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A series of weak lows will pass to the north across eastern
Canada Sunday into Sunday night, while high pressure passes to
the south. This will cause winds to back around to the SW and
once again become gusty at 25 to 30 mph. A shortwave passing
through along with weak warm advection will allow for an
increase in clouds with the chance of a brief shower and/or
flurry during the late morning. However, with highs getting to
near 50, this will be in the form of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Chances are only 20 percent and with a deep-layered west flow
it will be hard to get much. The HRRR is the most aggressive of
the CAMs, which shows some weak reflectivity returns cellular
in nature. Lapse rates are steep with little if any CAPE.
Whatever does develop will be low-topped (less than 10 kft).
Any rainfall likely not much more than a trace.

For Sunday night, skies clear back out with another weak low
passing to the north with weak high pressure to the south. A
diminishing WSW flow and continued warm advection will result in
a warmer night with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For Monday, weak high pressure builds over the area with a
deepening southern branch low passing well to the south. High
will get into the 50s and even the lower 60s inland.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Key points are a continuance of mainly dry conditions along
with generally above normal temperatures on average for the long
term. Potential changes for next Saturday with a developing
frontal system approaching from the west. Possible
precipitation, mainly in the form of rain showers Thursday and
Thursday night with a higher chance of rain showers next
Saturday.

Jet levels at 250 mb, the local region appears to be in between the
northern and southern jet branches for the entire long term forecast
period from the consensus of numerical weather prediction model
forecasts. Height orientation at 250mb appears mainly zonal until
next Saturday when more SW to NE height orientation appears ahead of
a large trough and a strong meridional jet streak approaching
from the west.

Looking at the mid levels at 500mb, numerical weather model
prediction height forecasts do not present any significant deviation
from zonal flow for much of the long term period. It is not until
next Saturday for any significant deviation from zonal flow, that
being of the SW flow ahead of a large trough.

At the surface, for Monday night into Tuesday, the consensus of
numerical weather model predictions show the local region to be in
between two low pressure areas, one in SE Canada and one moving off
the SE US coast. These lows move farther away Tuesday night through
Wednesday, to the northeast and southeast of the area respectively.
Meanwhile, low in SE Canada with trailing cold front will have this
front move across late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High
pressure then builds into the area from the north for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. High pressure shifts east of the region Thursday
into start of next weekend, getting eventually into Canadian
Maritimes and Northern Atlantic. Possible inverted trough and
easterly low level flow could result in a few showers, mainly
rain showers, Thursday and Thursday night. A complex developing
frontal system begins to approach from the west next Saturday,
which is when there is a relatively higher chance of rain
showers in the forecast. Southerly flow ahead of trough is
forecast to lead to a warmer trend in temperatures Friday into
Saturday of next week.

Surface winds overall present more onshore and southerly flow during
the long term. Airmass overall exhibits above normal temperatures on
average.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds south of the area into Sunday. A surface
trough moves across late Sunday.

VFR thru the TAF period. Strong NW flow gradually diminishes
through 06Z and backs a bit to the W. W/SW wind then increases
after 14Z Sunday with gusts back up to 30 kt possible. Winds
veer to the WNW late Sunday behind the trough as speeds
diminish late afternoon into the evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts on Sunday may be slightly higher than forecast in the
17-22Z timeframe.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR. Decreasing winds after 22-00Z.

Monday: VFR with W/VRB flow.

Tuesday: VFR with S flow.

Wednesday: VFR with N flow.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
WNW winds will gradually diminish tonight with a lull in the
winds before increasing from the WSW late Sunday morning. Have
extended SCA on the ocean due to the break only being a matter
of a few hours. However, the non-oceans waters will come down
late tonight. Another brief SCA is possible for these waters
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is lower than on the ocean waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are then forecast Sunday into Monday with
weak high pressure over the area.

For marine long term, wind gusts are forecast to remain below SCA
thresholds through Thursday night. However, there will be a chance
for higher peak wind gusts reaching into SCA range late Tuesday
through early Wednesday with a cold frontal passage. For Tuesday
night through Thursday night, seas are forecast to be at SCA levels
on the ocean. Otherwise, seas forecast in the long term are below
SCA for Monday night and Tuesday on the ocean and for all time
periods in the long term for non-ocean zones.

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --Gusts gradually lowering and RH levels on a rising trend with
conditions becoming less favorable for brush fire spread tonight.

Sunday will feature slightly higher minimum RH (30 to 40 percent)
values with gusty WSW flow. Gusts up to 30 mph are expected by
afternoon. Fine fuel moisture will change little. However, land
partners at this time would prefer us holding off on the
issuance of a Special Weather Statement due to the higher RH.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW