083
FXUS61 KOKX 091135
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure noses in from the south early today as it shifts
offshore. A series of weak lows will then pass north of the area
this afternoon through tonight. The area will then be in between two
stronger lows, one to the north and one to the south, as they head
east Monday night through Tuesday. The northern low will drag a cold
front through our area Tuesday night. High pressure remains near
the region Wednesday through Friday. A frontal system begins to
approaches and moves across the area Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure briefly noses in this morning from the south before
sliding offshore. At the same time, a series of weak lows will pass
just to our north.
The first low passes by this afternoon and is accompanied by a
decent shortwave aloft. Previous thinking was that some showers are
possible with the shortwave passing through along with weak warm
advection. Latest CAMs are much less excited about this
compared to 24 hrs ago. The HRRR has showed a steady decrease in
model radar reflectivity for several runs now. This could be a
result in a slight weakening/flattening trend in the shortwave,
which is seen in latest global model trends. Haven`t completely
removed PoPs for now, but limited to the Lower Hudson Valley
and southern CT. Elsewhere, have just sprinkles. This PoP trend
may continue to lower with subsequent forecast updates.
Model soundings are showing at least a few hour period this
afternoon of deep mixing again. This should result in 30 to 35 mph
gusts. Blended NBM90th percentile gusts and NAM 850mb winds to
derive forecast gusts.
The other weak low passes north tonight, but doesn`t bring more
than some clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather in the short term period with warm and dry conditions
expected. Two stronger areas of low pressure will pass by the
area Monday night through Tuesday (one to the north and one to
the south), but will not result in any weather for our area.
A warm up is expected, with highs each day in the 60s for northeast
NJ, NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley and 50s elsewhere. The pressure
gradient will be very weak over the area on Monday. Given this, cold
water temps and plenty of sun, a sea breeze is expected. This will
cool off any coastal areas quite a bit. Coastal CT and the south
coast of LI likely see their high temperatures in the early
afternoon.
The pressure gradient increases on Tuesday due to the influence
of the northern low rather than the southern one. This will
bring a gusty S/SW flow. It will also bring a slight increase in
moisture to the area. An associated cold front moves through
late Tuesday night, but does not bring any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period starts off with high pressure north of the region on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak upper level shortwave and
associated cold front move across the area on Thursday. Some of the
00z forecast guidance is showing some shower activity, however the
NBM is mainly dry. Will go ahead and carry a slight chance POP
through the day to account for this feature. Its likely it will
remain more dry than wet.
High pressure remains near the region Thursday night into early
Saturday morning. A cold front is then expected to move across the
area late Saturday into Sunday. Will carry just chance pops for the
weekend.
High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 40s
and lower to middle 50s. By Friday temperatures rise into the 50s to
near 60 across the NJ metro area. High temperatures for the weekend
will be in the middle 50s to low to mid 60s. The only exception will
be right along the coastline, where temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough moves across the area this afternoon into this
evening. A weak low pressure system passes north of the region
late tonight.
VFR through the TAF period. W to SW winds today. Speeds will
increase after 14Z with gusts back up to 25-30 kt possible. Can
not rule out a few gusts over 30kt. Winds diminish this evening
with gusts ending around 00z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Peak gusts may be slightly higher than forecast in the 17-
22Z timeframe.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR with W/SW flow.
Tuesday: VFR with S flow.
Wednesday: VFR with N flow.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on all waters today
with 25 to 30 kt gusts expected. The SCA on the eastern ocean zone
will continue through tonight as seas remain at 5 ft and 25 kt gusts
return late tonight. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Monday through
Tuesday night.
SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Wednesday and
Thursday will seas around 5 ft. Seas are then expected to fall below
5ft Thursday night. The non-ocean waters will remain below SCA
levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will feature slightly higher minimum RH (30 to 40 percent)
values with gusty WSW flow. Gusts up to 30 to 35 mph are expected by
the afternoon. Fine fuel moisture will change little. However, land
partners at this time would prefer us holding off on the issuance of
a Special Weather Statement due to the higher RH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT