020
FXUS61 KOKX 091502
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1102 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure noses in from the south early today as it shifts
offshore. A series of weak lows will then pass north of the area
this afternoon through tonight. The area will then be in between two
stronger lows, one to the north and one to the south, as they head
east Monday night through Tuesday. The northern low will drag a cold
front through our area Tuesday night. High pressure remains near
the region Wednesday through Friday. A frontal system begins to
approaches and moves across the area Saturday into Sunday.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A shrtwv passes thru the cwa this aftn. Deepest moisture is N of the area, as is the best instability. Some weak sbCAPE modeled from the Taconics and Berkshires nwd. As a result, have downgraded any chc for shwrs to a slight chc of sprinkles across the area today. Expecting most if not all of the area to remain dry. A burst of stronger winds behind the wave with strong subsidence. Wind direction will veer a little to the NW as well. No changes to the wind speed fcst attm. NBM90th percentile gusts were blended with the NAM 850mb winds to derive forecast gusts. In general gusts up to 35 mph expected, but there could be a few higher gusts around 40 mph with the shrtwv and any evap cooling contribution this aftn. Dry tngt with mainly some mid and high clouds.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather in the short term period with warm and dry conditions expected. Two stronger areas of low pressure will pass by the area Monday night through Tuesday (one to the north and one to the south), but will not result in any weather for our area. A warm up is expected, with highs each day in the 60s for northeast NJ, NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley and 50s elsewhere. The pressure gradient will be very weak over the area on Monday. Given this, cold water temps and plenty of sun, a sea breeze is expected. This will cool off any coastal areas quite a bit. Coastal CT and the south coast of LI likely see their high temperatures in the early afternoon. The pressure gradient increases on Tuesday due to the influence of the northern low rather than the southern one. This will bring a gusty S/SW flow. It will also bring a slight increase in moisture to the area. An associated cold front moves through late Tuesday night, but does not bring any precipitation. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The period starts off with high pressure north of the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak upper level shortwave and associated cold front move across the area on Thursday. Some of the 00z forecast guidance is showing some shower activity, however the NBM is mainly dry. Will go ahead and carry a slight chance POP through the day to account for this feature. Its likely it will remain more dry than wet. High pressure remains near the region Thursday night into early Saturday morning. A cold front is then expected to move across the area late Saturday into Sunday. Will carry just chance pops for the weekend. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 40s and lower to middle 50s. By Friday temperatures rise into the 50s to near 60 across the NJ metro area. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the middle 50s to low to mid 60s. The only exception will be right along the coastline, where temperatures will be a few degrees cooler. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Weak low pressure passes to the north today, dragging a surface trough across the area this afternoon. At the same time, high pressure passes to the south off the Mid Atlantic coast. VFR through the TAF period. W to SW winds today. Speeds will increase into this afternoon with gusts back up to 25-30 kt. Can not rule out a few gusts over 30kt. Winds diminish this evening with gusts ending 22Z-00Z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Onset of gusts may delayed 1-2 hours. Peak gusts may be slightly higher than forecast in the 17- 22Z timeframe. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: VFR with W/SW flow. Tuesday: VFR with S flow. Wednesday: VFR with N flow. Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on all waters today with 25 to 30 kt gusts expected. The SCA on the eastern ocean zone will continue through tonight as seas remain at 5 ft and 25 kt gusts return late tonight. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Monday through Tuesday night. SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Wednesday and Thursday will seas around 5 ft. Seas are then expected to fall below 5ft Thursday night. The non-ocean waters will remain below SCA levels. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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Today will feature minimum RH 20-40 percent with gusty WSW flow. Gusts up to 30 to 35 mph are expected by the afternoon. Fine fuel moisture will change little. An SPS has been issued for NJ per collab with the state.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353- 355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/JT NEAR TERM...JMC/JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...BC/DW MARINE...BC/JT FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/JT