091
FXUS61 KOKX 091811
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
211 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure noses in from the south early today as it shifts
offshore. A series of weak lows will then pass north of the area
this afternoon through tonight. The area will then be in between two
stronger lows, one to the north and one to the south, as they head
east Monday night through Tuesday. The northern low will drag a cold
front through our area Tuesday night. High pressure remains near
the region Wednesday through Friday. A frontal system begins to
approaches and moves across the area Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A shrtwv passes thru the cwa this aftn. Deepest moisture is N of
the area, as is the best instability. Some weak sbCAPE modeled
from the Taconics and Berkshires nwd. As a result, have
downgraded any chc for shwrs to a slight chc of sprinkles
across the area today. Expecting most if not all of the area to
remain dry.
A burst of stronger winds behind the wave with strong
subsidence. Wind direction will veer a little to the NW as
well. No changes to the wind speed fcst attm. NBM90th percentile
gusts were blended with the NAM 850mb winds to derive forecast
gusts. In general gusts up to 35 mph expected, but there could
be a few higher gusts around 40 mph with the shrtwv and any evap
cooling contribution this aftn.
Dry tngt with mainly some mid and high clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather in the short term period with warm and dry conditions
expected. Two stronger areas of low pressure will pass by the
area Monday night through Tuesday (one to the north and one to
the south), but will not result in any weather for our area.
A warm up is expected, with highs each day in the 60s for northeast
NJ, NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley and 50s elsewhere. The pressure
gradient will be very weak over the area on Monday. Given this, cold
water temps and plenty of sun, a sea breeze is expected. This will
cool off any coastal areas quite a bit. Coastal CT and the south
coast of LI likely see their high temperatures in the early
afternoon.
The pressure gradient increases on Tuesday due to the influence
of the northern low rather than the southern one. This will
bring a gusty S/SW flow. It will also bring a slight increase in
moisture to the area. An associated cold front moves through
late Tuesday night, but does not bring any precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The period starts off with high pressure north of the region on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak upper level shortwave and
associated cold front move across the area on Thursday. Some of the
00z forecast guidance is showing some shower activity, however the
NBM is mainly dry. Will go ahead and carry a slight chance POP
through the day to account for this feature. Its likely it will
remain more dry than wet.
High pressure remains near the region Thursday night into early
Saturday morning. A cold front is then expected to move across the
area late Saturday into Sunday. Will carry just chance pops for the
weekend.
High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 40s
and lower to middle 50s. By Friday temperatures rise into the 50s to
near 60 across the NJ metro area. High temperatures for the weekend
will be in the middle 50s to low to mid 60s. The only exception will
be right along the coastline, where temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough passes through this afternoon with another
Monday morning, followed by weak high pressure.
VFR. Strengthening W/SW winds this afternoon will gusts
25-30kt, but then quickly diminish this evening. Winds will
back to the SW at 5-10kt tonight, then veer to the W/NW Monday
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours. Gusts may be a bit
lower than currently forecast this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday Afternoon: VFR. Chance of an afternoon seabreeze.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow. Slight chance of
showers.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on all waters today
with 25 to 30 kt gusts expected. The SCA on the eastern ocean zone
will continue through tonight as seas remain at 5 ft and 25 kt gusts
return late tonight. Sub-SCA conditions then expected Monday through
Tuesday night.
SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Wednesday and
Thursday will seas around 5 ft. Seas are then expected to fall below
5ft Thursday night. The non-ocean waters will remain below SCA
levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will feature minimum RH 20-40 percent with gusty WSW
flow. Gusts up to 30 to 35 mph are expected by the afternoon.
Fine fuel moisture will change little. An SPS has been issued
for NJ per collab with the state.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT