848
FXUS61 KOKX 092347
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds south of the region through Monday. Local
region in between lows southeast and north of the region for
Tuesday. A cold front approaches late Tuesday and moves across
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure briefly
builds Wednesday into Wednesday night before moving towards the
Canadian Maritimes. Weak low pressure approaches Thursday into
early Friday. Region will then be in between high pressure in
the Western Atlantic and approaching developing low pressure to
the west heading into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes made to the forecast database. Slight tweaks
were made to temperatures, dewpoints and cloud coverage to better
match observed and near term forecast trends. The forecast overall
is on track.
As the boundary layer cools, winds will diminish this evening.
Another jet max however passes thru overnight and the associated
subsidence looks to kick winds back up slightly overnight. Main
impact with this is to make the temperature fcst challenging. Went
close to the NBM given the mixing winds expected. If things remain
decoupled, particularly across the interior, lows will end up
several degrees colder.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak low pres tracking ewd across the Gulf of ME, along with NW
flow aloft, will be conducive to wly llvl flow thru most of the
day on Mon. This is a warm signal. As the flow aloft weakens
17-20Z, the sea breeze should begin to overspread the coasts.
This should still allow most areas to warm significantly thru
the late mrng into the early aftn. Mixed down temps from h85
then blended in the NBM to produce the high temp grid. Went a
good deal abv the NBM for LI and parts of CT, bringing almost
the entire cwa aoa 60 degrees. If the flow ends up a bit S of W,
or the sea breeze develops too quickly, these numbers will be
too warm.
A dry airmass and broad subsidence should produce no pcpn and few
clouds. There should be some cu invof the sea breeze.
Light sly flow Mon ngt with mainly skc. There could be enough return
flow llvl moisture to allow for some shallow fog to develop. The
prob is too low however attm to include in the fcst. Went with the
NBM for temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly dry through much of the long term. Possibilities for
rain showers Thursday through Thursday night and a higher
possibility for next weekend, especially for next Sunday.
Temperatures overall are forecast to be above normal on average.
More amplified pattern develops for next weekend. Stronger low
approaches with a strengthening cold front for next Sunday.
Potential for heavy rain and gusty winds with strong meridional flow
ahead of it. Last day of forecast period so there is more
uncertainty and exact timing and rainfall details will have
variations from forecast to forecast. Overall this will have
associated low confidence for the time being.
The consensus of numerical weather prediction models show upper
and mid level flow quasi-zonal for the local area much of the
long term, with strengthening SW flow for next weekend. Region
mainly in between northern and southern branches of the upper
jet. Upper jet southern branch starts to move into the region
for the latter half of next weekend.
At the surface, weak pressure gradient Tuesday in place across the
area with the area in between systems. Low in Southeast Canada
brings a cold front to the region late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Cold front expected to move across dry with a lack of available
moisture.
High pressure from Great Lakes and Southeast Canada then briefly
builds into the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure
moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Weak low pressure
associated with an inverted trough sets up Thursday across the
region. The region will have more easterly flow. Possible rain
showers in the forecast but just slight chance.
Warming trend for Friday into the weekend. Friday and Friday night
forecast is dry but chances for rain showers increase for next
weekend. Saturday appears to be mainly dry but likelihood increases
substantially next Sunday for rain showers.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another weak surface trough passes through on Monday morning,
followed by weak high pressure.
VFR. W/SW winds near 10kt continue to back to the SW an weaken to 5-
10kt tonight. Winds then veer to the W/NW Monday morning behind a
surface trough passage. Winds then become more SSW/S Monday
afternoon behind an expected seabreeze before becoming light and
variable overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow. Slight chance of
showers.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cancelled SCA for all marine zones except for ocean east of Fire
Island Inlet. Winds and seas are on a decreasing trend this evening
before an upward trend overnight.
Residual 5 ft seas on the ocean, especially east of Fire Island
Inlet, so the SCA remains in effect there through the day Monday.
Winds and seas go below SCA levels Monday night.
Sub-SCA conditions forecast for all waters Tuesday through Tuesday
night. Non-ocean waters forecast to stay below SCA thereafter.
Probable SCA conditions for the ocean Wednesday through Friday.
All waters forecast to return to below SCA conditions Friday
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns expected this week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM