603
FXUS61 KOKX 101412
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Wednesday. Weak low pressure
approaches from the west Thursday into early Friday. The region
will then be in between high pressure in the Western Atlantic
and approaching developing low pressure to the west heading into
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst is on track. Sunny for today with a nearly zonal flow
aloft and weak surface ridging. Westerly flow should help
produce a mild day with temperatures above normal. Anticipating
afternoon sea breeze circulations to develop as the flow aloft
weakens with mild surface temps, sea surface temps around 40,
and large dewpoint depressions in place. Even south-facing
shores should be able to reach well into the 50s before the sea
breeze cools things off. Most of the forecast area should end up
in the 60s given the westerly flow and 900mb temps ranging
4-6C.
Clear for tonight, and with light to calm winds, expecting good
radiational cooling conditions in the usual spots away from the
city. Lows in the mid 40s for the city, ranging to around 30 for
some spots across the northernmost zones, and even down into the
mid-upper 20s in the Pine Barrens Region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Not much change in the pattern for Tuesday. Remaining sunny with
above-normal temperatures. A weak onshore flow in the boundary layer
will allow for an earlier sea-breeze this time around, so cooler
high temps versus today for LI, a good portion of southern CT and
parts of the city. Lower Hudson Valley and most of NE NJ reach or
surpass today`s highs by a few degrees. A cold front passes through
during Tuesday night, but with only enough moisture for some clouds.
High pressure builds in from the north during Wednesday. Associated
subsidence will limit the mixing depth, but temperatures are still
expected to be a few degrees above normal in spite of this. Looks
like sunshine filtered through cirrus much of the day with perhaps
some low-mid clouds pushing in from the west by evening. These lower
clouds are associated with an approaching shortwave. Still can`t
rule out a late night shower although models vary regarding how dry
and deep the sub-cloud layer will be when the shortwave lift
interacts with the moisture focused in the 850-700mb layer. Thermal
profile is cold enough well inland for snow to mix in should
anything reach the ground.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday while at
the same time a weak low over the eastern Great Lakes region
transitions into an inverted trough as it moves across the forecast
area. Much of the area can expect a slight chance for showers as
this feature weakens while it moves across the area and much of any
dynamics remains mainly north of the area. Low end chance for
eastern areas as this looks to interact with another trough
offshore.
With weak high pressure over the region Friday into the first half
of the weekend, and weak ridging aloft, conditions are expected to
be dry Friday and mainly dry for Saturday (some uncertainty with
timing of the next system could bring in some showers for Saturday).
However, better chances for late Saturday night into Sunday as a
more amplified pattern develops. A stronger low approaches with a
strengthening cold front bringing the potential for moderate to
briefly heavy rain and gusty winds with strong meridional flow ahead
of it. There are of course a fair amount of timing issues this far
out, so confidence is rather low in any features that might
contribute to heavy rain.
Temperatures are expected to be above average through the period. In
fact, temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning may not drop
below the middle 50s for areas away from the coast, while highs on
Sunday could reach the middle 60s across northeast NJ. For context
on how warm lows will be Saturday night into Sunday, normal high
temperatures this time of year are in the upper 40s to near 50.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in today.
VFR. W/NW this morning becoming more SSW/S this afternoon
behind an expected seabreeze before becoming light and variable
overnight. Speeds should generally be around 10 kt or less. KLGA
may see occasional gusts to around 20 kt through 15Z this
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KLGA may see gusts to around 20 kt through 15Z this morning.
Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours, especially this
afternoon in association with sea breezes.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow. Slight chance of
showers.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Guidance still shows winds and waves picking up on the ocean this
morning before subsiding this afternoon, but has trended lower in
magnitude for both. Canceled the SCA on the ocean from Fire Island
Inlet to Moriches Inlet, but not enough confidence to remove the
advisory east of Moriches Inlet at this time. Have at least
shortened the advisory to end at 18z. Sub-advisory conditions
otherwise today through Wednesday evening.
Onshore flow Thursday will allow ocean waters to build to 5 ft
(mainly the central and eastern zones). They fall below 5 ft late
Thursday night and remain below SCA criteria through Friday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/DS
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP