358
FXUS61 KOKX 102012
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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It will remain mild on Tuesday ahead of a weak cold frontal passage
Tuesday night. High pressure passing to the north on Wednesday
will park along the Northeast coast from Thursday into Friday
while a stationary front remains to the south. A weak frontal
system will approach on Saturday, followed by a strong cold
front on Sunday. Unsettled weather may linger into Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The sea breeze is showing up well on radar and is ready to put
an end to the mild temps on Long Island. A developing onshore
flow along the CT coast will keeps things chillier there as well
into the eve. Elsewhere, more of a natural diurnal temp swing
can be expected this eve.

Mainly skc tngt with stlt currently clear. Some possible high
clouds may filter in from the low to the S late.

With temps dropping under a good radiational cooling regime,
some patchy shallow fog is possible by early Tue mrng in the
outlying areas and valleys and has been added to the fcst.

Went colder than the NBM for the sheltered areas, and closer to
the NBM elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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S flow on Tue will result in a wide range of temps. Ern areas
much cooler with the flow off the water. Warmest areas will be
along and W of the Hudson. The models are not indicating any
fog banks or marine stratus, so still allowed temps to warm into
the 50s for LI and CT. Wrn areas in the mid 60s attm.

Deep mixing is not expected with veering flow thru the llvls,
but flow thru h925 is robust enough to produce gusts to around
20kt.

Went a notch abv the NBM for high temps with a lack of any low
or mid clouds.

A cfp is modeled for Tue ngt. There could be some patchy fog
ahead of the front, but the timing of the front may be early
enough to keep the fog from developing, especially if prefrontal
winds are able to stay up. Left the fog out of the fcst attm.

Went close to the NBM for low temps.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure passing to the north on Wednesday will become
nearly stationary along the Northeast coast late this week. An
inverted trough well inland and passing upper level disturbance
may combine to produce some light wintry precip well inland Wed
night mainly late. Attm have called it snow/rain showers, while
WAA aloft and fcst soundings/partial thicknesses atop a colder
sfc air mass with low temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s inland
suggest potential for some light freezing rain/sleet so this
will have to be watched.

The upper level disturbance moves E on Thu, leaving the area in
a E maritime flow regime between a stationary front to the
south and weak sfc ridging extending down the coast from the
high which should be centered over the Canadian Maritimes at
that time, with dry but cloudy conditions. Some improvement in
sky conditions may take place daytime Fri as weak upper ridging
moves across well in advance of expected unsettled wx this
weekend as a strong closed low aloft moves across the Plains
toward the upper Great Lakes. Should see some showers Sat
night/Sunday AM in a developing deep layer WAA regime, then a
trailing cold front with moderate to locally heavy rain on
Sunday. Winds out ahead of the front could get strong with gusts
over 40 mph especially for the metro area and along the coast.
If the front aligns more with the flow aloft as show by the
latest ECMWF the heavy rain potential could end up greater and
rain linger into Monday, but these possibilities remain
uncertain nearly a week out in time.

Above normal temps on Wed should return to near normal on Thu
under maritime cloud cover. These temps should quickly bounce
back to above normal on Fri and especially this weekend, with
highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Sat, in the 60s throughout
on Sunday, and at least in the 50s on Mon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front
approaches late Tuesday.

VFR.

SW-S flow will continue to develop this afternoon with sea
breezes. The only exception will be at KSWF will the flow will
remain W-NW into the evening. Sea breeze will take longest to
reach KTEB and KHPN. Wind speeds 10-12 kt expected for the rest
of the afternoon. Winds may back to the SE this evening as
speeds diminish. Light and variable flow expected overnight
before S winds increase through Tuesday. Wind speeds 10-15 kt
are expected by Tuesday afternoon with gusts around 20 kt
possible, mainly NW of the NYC metro.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB may be off by 1-2
hr.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Afternoon-Wednesday: VFR. S gusts 15-20 kt possible Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of
a shower Wednesday night.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Weak high pres over the waters should keep winds and waves blw sca
criteria thru Tue. A weak cold front Tue ngt will produce a wind
shift, but cond still look to remain blw sca lvls.

Persistent offshore E flow should lead to ocean seas near 5 ft
from Wed into Thu night. Quiet cond expected on all waters from
Fri into daytime Sat, then increasing S flow should lead to
SCA cond on the ocean and possibly the Long Island south shore
bays Sat night, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas building to
5-6 ft. There is some potential for gales especially on the
ocean ahead of the approaching front on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Min RH around 30 percent and wind gusts around 20 mph are
expected for wrn portions of the cwa on Tue. An SPS has been
coordinated for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. RH should
be higher across CT, as well as NYC to Long Island with the flow
off the ocean.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next
weekend. There is some potential for heavy rain on Sunday, but
it is much too early to offer specific details.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/BG
FIRE WEATHER...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG