882
FXUS61 KOKX 102349
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
749 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain mild on Tuesday ahead of a weak cold frontal
passage Tuesday night. High pressure passing to the north on
Wednesday will park along the Northeast coast from Thursday into
Friday while a stationary front remains to the south. A weak
frontal system will approach on Saturday, followed by a strong
cold front on Sunday. Unsettled weather may linger into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated near term trend from 23Z obs. Skies should be mainly
clear tonight. Some possible high clouds may filter in from the
low to the S late.
With temps dropping under a good radiational cooling regime,
some patchy shallow fog is possible by early morning in the
outlying areas and valleys and has been added to the fcst.
For low temps went colder than the NBM for the sheltered areas,
and closer to the NBM elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
S flow on Tue will result in a wide range of temps. Ern areas
much cooler with the flow off the water. Warmest areas will be
along and W of the Hudson. The models are not indicating any
fog banks or marine stratus, so still allowed temps to warm into
the 50s for LI and CT. Wrn areas in the mid 60s attm.
Deep mixing is not expected with veering flow thru the llvls,
but flow thru h925 is robust enough to produce gusts to around
20kt.
Went a notch abv the NBM for high temps with a lack of any low
or mid clouds.
A cfp is modeled for Tue ngt. There could be some patchy fog
ahead of the front, but the timing of the front may be early
enough to keep the fog from developing, especially if prefrontal
winds are able to stay up. Left the fog out of the fcst attm.
Went close to the NBM for low temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure passing to the north on Wednesday will become
nearly stationary along the Northeast coast late this week. An
inverted trough well inland and passing upper level disturbance
may combine to produce some light wintry precip well inland Wed
night mainly late. Attm have called it snow/rain showers, while
WAA aloft and fcst soundings/partial thicknesses atop a colder
sfc air mass with low temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s inland
suggest potential for some light freezing rain/sleet so this
will have to be watched.
The upper level disturbance moves E on Thu, leaving the area in
a E maritime flow regime between a stationary front to the
south and weak sfc ridging extending down the coast from the
high which should be centered over the Canadian Maritimes at
that time, with dry but cloudy conditions. Some improvement in
sky conditions may take place daytime Fri as weak upper ridging
moves across well in advance of expected unsettled wx this
weekend as a strong closed low aloft moves across the Plains
toward the upper Great Lakes. Should see some showers Sat
night/Sunday AM in a developing deep layer WAA regime, then a
trailing cold front with moderate to locally heavy rain on
Sunday. Winds out ahead of the front could get strong with gusts
over 40 mph especially for the metro area and along the coast.
If the front aligns more with the flow aloft as show by the
latest ECMWF the heavy rain potential could end up greater and
rain linger into Monday, but these possibilities remain
uncertain nearly a week out in time.
Above normal temps on Wed should return to near normal on Thu
under maritime cloud cover. These temps should quickly bounce
back to above normal on Fri and especially this weekend, with
highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Sat, in the 60s throughout
on Sunday, and at least in the 50s on Mon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front
approaches late Tuesday and passes through the terminals
Tuesday evening.
VFR.
Winds become light S/SW as sea breezes end early this evening,
with the flow becoming light and variable at all the terminals
by 03Z. South winds develop Tuesday morning, increasing to 10
to 13 kt early to mid afternoon. Gusts are possible away from
the coast, up to 20 kt, for a few hours Tuesday afternoon, and
most likely at KSWF with gusts up to 22 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night-Wednesday: VFR. S/SW winds early Tuesday evening
shift to W/NW less than 10 kt with a cold front passage by
late Tuesday night.
Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance
of a rain shower along the coast, and snow showers inland
Wednesday night.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pres over the waters should keep winds and waves blw
sca criteria thru Tue. A weak cold front Tue ngt will produce a
wind shift, but cond still look to remain blw sca lvls.
Persistent offshore E flow should lead to ocean seas near 5 ft
from Wed into Thu night. Quiet cond expected on all waters from
Fri into daytime Sat, then increasing S flow should lead to
SCA cond on the ocean and possibly the Long Island south shore
bays Sat night, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas building to
5-6 ft. There is some potential for gales especially on the
ocean ahead of the approaching front on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Min RH around 30 percent and wind gusts around 20 mph are
expected for wrn portions of the cwa on Tue. SPS has been
coordinated for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and for
southern CT. RH should be higher across coastal SE CT, as well
as from NYC to Long Island with the flow off the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Sat. There is some
potential for heavy rain on Sunday, but it is much too early
to offer specific details.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC/BG
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/BG
FIRE WEATHER...JMC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG