675
FXUS61 KOKX 111721
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be mostly in control of the weather through
Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front passes through tonight, then a
weak wave of low pressure passes to the south Thursday into
early Friday. The region will then be in between high pressure
in the Western Atlantic and approaching developing low pressure
to the west heading into next weekend.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast generally on track. Another sunny and mild day with high pressure in control. 900mb temps are similar to yesterday`s levels, but an ongoing flow off the area waters will result in cooler high temperatures compared to yesterday over Long Island, much of southern CT, and parts of the city. Elsewhere, high temps at or a little above yesterday in most cases. This will lead to some 70 degree readings in parts of NE NJ, 55-60 along south-facing shores, and 60s for the remainder of the forecast area. A cold front passes through tonight, but lacking moisture. Only some clouds with its passage, and there may be some low stratus that sneaks in along the south shore of Suffolk County tonight ahead of its passage.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure stretches south from Quebec on Wednesday, bringing us a cooler air mass with a northerly flow turning east by late in the day. This along with subsidence will limit the mixing depth, so high temperatures will be generally 50-55, which is still around 5 degrees above normal. Shortwave with some moisture may combine for some light showers for the southern half of the area and mixed rain and snow showers for the northern half during Wednesday night. Precip chances are low however, capped at 30 percent. Looks like we`ll be stuck with plenty of clouds during Thursday as an easterly wind persists, helping to lock in lower level moisture. In addition, a weak wave of low pressure forms along a stationary front to our south. Associated isentropic lift could help produce some drizzle in the afternoon and night. The clouds and onshore flow will hold high temps in the 45-50 degree range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday while at the same time a weak low over the eastern Great Lakes region transitions into an inverted trough as it moves across the forecast area. Much of the area can expect a slight chance for showers as this feature weakens while it moves across the area and much of any dynamics remains mainly north of the area. Low end chance for eastern areas as this looks to interact with another trough offshore. With weak high pressure over the region Friday into the first half of the weekend, and weak ridging aloft, conditions are expected to be dry Friday and mainly dry for Saturday (some uncertainty with timing of the next system could bring in some showers for Saturday). However, better chances for late Saturday night into Sunday as a more amplified pattern develops. A stronger low approaches with a strengthening cold front bringing the potential for moderate to briefly heavy rain and gusty winds with strong meridional flow ahead of it. There are of course a fair amount of timing issues this far out, so confidence is rather low in any features that might contribute to heavy rain. Temperatures are expected to be above average through the period. In fact, temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning may not drop below the middle 50s for areas away from the coast, while highs on Sunday could reach the middle 60s across northeast NJ. For context on how warm lows will be Saturday night into Sunday, normal high temperatures this time of year are in the upper 40s to near 50. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front approaches this afternoon and passes through the terminals tonight. High pressure builds across New England on Wednesday. VFR. S-SSW winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts will be frequent at KSWF 20-25 kt this afternoon. Occasional gusts up to around 20 kt are possible at KLGA, KEWR, KTEB, and KHPN. Wind speeds will weaken this evening as the direction veers to the SW. Wind then shift to the N behind the front 03-05z, under 10 kt. The flow will continue to veer to the NE-ENE Wednesday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... An occasional gust up to 20 kt possible at KJFK this afternoon. Timing of wind shift to the N tonight may be off by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday Afternoon: VFR. Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of a rain shower along the coast, and snow showers inland Wednesday night. Friday: VFR. Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20- 30 kt Saturday night. Sunday: IFR or lower possible with showers, especially in the afternoon and at night. S wind gusts 25-35 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Sub-advisory conditions prevail through tonight. A persistent onshore flow along with a weak wave of low pressure passing nearby to the south may generate enough swell to push seas over 5 ft Wednesday night through Thursday night. Winds otherwise should remain below 25 kt across all waters through this period. Onshore flow Thursday will allow ocean waters to build to 5 ft (mainly the central and eastern zones). They fall below 5 ft late Thursday night and remain below SCA criteria through Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RH of 25-30 percent with a few wind gusts possible approaching 20 mph brings an elevated risk of fire spread today for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and NE NJ. SPS has been coordinated for these locations. RH should be higher across coastal SE CT, as well as from NYC to Long Island with the flow off the area waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend. There is some potential for heavy rain on Sunday, but it is much too early to offer specific details. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JP NEAR TERM...JC/MW SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...DS MARINE...JC/JP FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JC/JP