337
FXUS61 KOKX 111944
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front moves through tonight with high pressure building
back in for Wednesday. A weak wave of low pressure moves by
Wednesday night. High pressure remains in control through
Thursday. A weak wave of low pressure passes off the Mid
Atlantic coast into Friday. Thereafter, a warm front lifts
through Saturday, before a strong cold front moves through the
region into Sunday night. Behind it, high pressure returns early
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Another warm day with highs in the upper 50s and to middle 60s is
expected to cool off fairly quickly tonight with high pressure
overhead. Clear skies and light winds, at least initially, during
the evening should promote a decoupling of the BL with some
efficient radiational cooling possible for the more outlying
areas.
A cold front is expected to move through around midnight which will
allow winds to shift out of the NW and increase a bit. This
additional mixing may allow for any spots that radiational cool
earlier in the evening to warm back up a bit and limit the
radiational cooling. Generally mostly clear skies and dry
conditions are expected tonight with lows in the 30s, cooler
inland and warmer near NYC, which may not drop out of the low
40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure moving north of the area builds back in for Wednesday
allowing for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies during much of the
day. A light N/NE flow in the morning shifts to an E flow by
afternoon. This onshore flow with the high pressure sliding
northeast of the area will promote cooler temperatures and an
increase in low level moisture. Highs Wednesday are expected to be in
the upper 40s to low 50s.
Clouds begin to build into the area late afternoon and into the
overnight as a weak surface trough approaches from the west. This
will promote some overrunning of warmer air which combined with the
increase low level moisture, may produce some shower activity over
the area Wednesday late afternoon and through the overnight period.
Depending on the exact timing and surface temperatures of any shower
activity will determine whether these showers fall in the form of a
light rain or light snow/rain mix for interior areas. The thinking
is largely any shower activity will fall in the form of mostly rain,
but a rain/snow mix or some light snow for the higher elevations to
the north can`t be ruled out. Little to no snow accumulation is
expected and rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch.
Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 30s once again with
colder locations to the north and warmer spots in and around the NYC
metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday while a
weak low passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic coast. With
the easterly flow, expect plenty of stratus to develop and move in,
with patchy areas of fog possible at times. Appreciable rainfall
looks limited however during this time.
A more unsettled pattern sets up as deepening low pressure cuts
through the Central US and into the Upper Great Lakes this weekend
with a mid level trough amplifying as it shifts east. This will send
an associated warm front thru the local area Saturday, and
strengthening southerly flow helps stream in moisture from the Gulf
into Sunday. Potential for a period of heavy downpours ahead of the
attendant cold frontal passage, though still differences in global
guidance timing and placement that will need to be resolved before
getting too specific. Conditions should generally start to dry out
into Monday as the system exits and high pressure builds in from the
South.
Temperatures remain above average through the period. In fact, most
should remain above the freezing mark into mid next week. Thursday
looks to be the coolest day of the period with onshore flow helping
dampen temperatures in the afternoon. Still, highs will be near
normal values for mid March, generally in the upper 40s. Thereafter,
a milder air mass advects in and keeps daytime temperatures in the
50s and 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s, 40s, and even 50s this
weekend for some.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front approaches this afternoon and passes through the
terminals tonight. High pressure builds across New England on
Wednesday.
VFR.
SSW-SSE winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts 17-20 kt are possible,
especially at KLGA, KEWR, KTEB, KHPN, and KSWF. Wind speeds will
weaken this evening as the direction veers to the SW. Wind then
shift to the N behind the front 03-05z, under 10 kt. The flow will
continue to veer to the NE-ENE Wednesday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.
Timing of wind shift to the N tonight may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon: VFR.
Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of a
rain shower along the coast, and snow showers inland Wednesday night.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20-
30 kt Saturday night.
Sunday: IFR or lower possible with showers, especially in the
afternoon and at night. S wind gusts 25-35 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions expected to persist tonight and through much of
the day Wednesday with light flow. A more persistent E/SE flow picks
up late Wednesday which may generate wave heights near 5 feet on
some of the ocean zones by Wednesday night and into Thursday
night. All sheltered waters will remain below SCA thresholds.
Ocean seas are expected to lower below SCA criteria Friday, before
increasing once again late Saturday with strengthening southerly
flow. SCA conditions return to all waters by Sunday with 25 kt gusts
developing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Min RH of 25-30 percent with a few wind gusts possible approaching
20 mph brings an elevated risk of fire spread through this evening
for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and NE NJ. SPS
has been coordinated for these locations. RH should be higher across
coastal SE CT, as well as from NYC to Long Island with the flow off
the area waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend.
There is potential for heavy downpours ahead of a frontal passage
Sunday and Sunday night. There remains uncertainty into the duration
and placement, but the possibility of nuisance flooding cannot
be ruled out.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW