337
FXUS61 KOKX 111944
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front moves through tonight with high pressure building back in for Wednesday. A weak wave of low pressure moves by Wednesday night. High pressure remains in control through Thursday. A weak wave of low pressure passes off the Mid Atlantic coast into Friday. Thereafter, a warm front lifts through Saturday, before a strong cold front moves through the region into Sunday night. Behind it, high pressure returns early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Another warm day with highs in the upper 50s and to middle 60s is expected to cool off fairly quickly tonight with high pressure overhead. Clear skies and light winds, at least initially, during the evening should promote a decoupling of the BL with some efficient radiational cooling possible for the more outlying areas. A cold front is expected to move through around midnight which will allow winds to shift out of the NW and increase a bit. This additional mixing may allow for any spots that radiational cool earlier in the evening to warm back up a bit and limit the radiational cooling. Generally mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected tonight with lows in the 30s, cooler inland and warmer near NYC, which may not drop out of the low 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure moving north of the area builds back in for Wednesday allowing for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies during much of the day. A light N/NE flow in the morning shifts to an E flow by afternoon. This onshore flow with the high pressure sliding northeast of the area will promote cooler temperatures and an increase in low level moisture. Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds begin to build into the area late afternoon and into the overnight as a weak surface trough approaches from the west. This will promote some overrunning of warmer air which combined with the increase low level moisture, may produce some shower activity over the area Wednesday late afternoon and through the overnight period. Depending on the exact timing and surface temperatures of any shower activity will determine whether these showers fall in the form of a light rain or light snow/rain mix for interior areas. The thinking is largely any shower activity will fall in the form of mostly rain, but a rain/snow mix or some light snow for the higher elevations to the north can`t be ruled out. Little to no snow accumulation is expected and rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 30s once again with colder locations to the north and warmer spots in and around the NYC metro.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday while a weak low passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic coast. With the easterly flow, expect plenty of stratus to develop and move in, with patchy areas of fog possible at times. Appreciable rainfall looks limited however during this time. A more unsettled pattern sets up as deepening low pressure cuts through the Central US and into the Upper Great Lakes this weekend with a mid level trough amplifying as it shifts east. This will send an associated warm front thru the local area Saturday, and strengthening southerly flow helps stream in moisture from the Gulf into Sunday. Potential for a period of heavy downpours ahead of the attendant cold frontal passage, though still differences in global guidance timing and placement that will need to be resolved before getting too specific. Conditions should generally start to dry out into Monday as the system exits and high pressure builds in from the South. Temperatures remain above average through the period. In fact, most should remain above the freezing mark into mid next week. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period with onshore flow helping dampen temperatures in the afternoon. Still, highs will be near normal values for mid March, generally in the upper 40s. Thereafter, a milder air mass advects in and keeps daytime temperatures in the 50s and 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s, 40s, and even 50s this weekend for some.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front approaches this afternoon and passes through the terminals tonight. High pressure builds across New England on Wednesday. VFR. SSW-SSE winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts 17-20 kt are possible, especially at KLGA, KEWR, KTEB, KHPN, and KSWF. Wind speeds will weaken this evening as the direction veers to the SW. Wind then shift to the N behind the front 03-05z, under 10 kt. The flow will continue to veer to the NE-ENE Wednesday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours. Timing of wind shift to the N tonight may be off by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday Afternoon: VFR. Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of a rain shower along the coast, and snow showers inland Wednesday night. Friday: VFR. Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20- 30 kt Saturday night. Sunday: IFR or lower possible with showers, especially in the afternoon and at night. S wind gusts 25-35 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions expected to persist tonight and through much of the day Wednesday with light flow. A more persistent E/SE flow picks up late Wednesday which may generate wave heights near 5 feet on some of the ocean zones by Wednesday night and into Thursday night. All sheltered waters will remain below SCA thresholds. Ocean seas are expected to lower below SCA criteria Friday, before increasing once again late Saturday with strengthening southerly flow. SCA conditions return to all waters by Sunday with 25 kt gusts developing.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Min RH of 25-30 percent with a few wind gusts possible approaching 20 mph brings an elevated risk of fire spread through this evening for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT, and NE NJ. SPS has been coordinated for these locations. RH should be higher across coastal SE CT, as well as from NYC to Long Island with the flow off the area waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend. There is potential for heavy downpours ahead of a frontal passage Sunday and Sunday night. There remains uncertainty into the duration and placement, but the possibility of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DR/MW NEAR TERM...MW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...DS MARINE...DR/MW FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...DR/MW