818
FXUS61 KOKX 112329
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
729 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front moves through tonight with high pressure
building back in for Wednesday. A weak wave of low pressure
moves by Wednesday night. High pressure remains in control
Thursday and Friday. Thereafter, a warm front lifts through
Saturday, before a strong cold front moves through the region
into Sunday night. Behind it, high pressure returns early next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Advancing cold front, draped across Upstate NY and Central PA
at 2230Z, passes thru the region this evening. Little moisture
and forcing will keep conditions dry locally, though winds shift
NW then N into the overnight as surface high pressure builds
east behind the fropa. Forecast remains on track and previous
discussion follows.
Clear skies and light winds, at least initially, during the
evening should promote a decoupling of the BL with some
efficient radiational cooling possible for the more outlying
areas.
A cold front is expected to move through around midnight which will
allow winds to shift out of the NW and increase a bit. This
additional mixing may allow for any spots that radiational cool
earlier in the evening to warm back up a bit and limit the
radiational cooling. Generally mostly clear skies and dry
conditions are expected tonight with lows in the 30s, cooler
inland and warmer near NYC, which may not drop out of the low
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moving north of the area builds back in for
Wednesday allowing for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
during much of the day. A light N/NE flow in the morning shifts
to an E flow by afternoon. This onshore flow with the high
pressure sliding northeast of the area will promote cooler
temperatures and an increase in low level moisture. Highs
Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Clouds begin to build into the area late afternoon and into the
overnight as a weak surface trough approaches from the west.
This will promote some overrunning of warmer air which combined
with the increase low level moisture, may produce some shower
activity over the area Wednesday late afternoon and through the
overnight period. Depending on the exact timing and surface
temperatures of any shower activity will determine whether these
showers fall in the form of a light rain or light snow/rain mix
for interior areas. The thinking is largely any shower activity
will fall in the form of mostly rain, but a rain/snow mix or
some light snow for the higher elevations to the north can`t be
ruled out. Little to no snow accumulation is expected and
rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 30s once again with
colder locations to the north and warmer spots in and around the
NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday while
a weak low passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic coast.
With the easterly flow, expect plenty of stratus to develop and
move in, with patchy areas of fog possible at times. Appreciable
rainfall looks limited however during this time.
A more unsettled pattern sets up as deepening low pressure cuts
through the Central US and into the Upper Great Lakes this
weekend with a mid level trough amplifying as it shifts east.
This will send an associated warm front thru the local area
Saturday, and strengthening southerly flow helps stream in
moisture from the Gulf into Sunday. Potential for a period of
heavy downpours ahead of the attendant cold frontal passage,
though still differences in global guidance timing and placement
that will need to be resolved before getting too specific.
Conditions should generally start to dry out into Monday as the
system exits and high pressure builds in from the South.
Temperatures remain above average through the period. In fact,
most should remain above the freezing mark into mid next week.
Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period with onshore
flow helping dampen temperatures in the afternoon. Still, highs
will be near normal values for mid March, generally in the upper
40s. Thereafter, a milder air mass advects in and keeps daytime
temperatures in the 50s and 60s, with overnight lows in the
30s, 40s, and even 50s this weekend for some.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes through the terminals tonight. High
pressure builds across New England on Wednesday. A weak wave of
low pressure approaches Wednesday evening.
VFR.
Winds remain S early this evening, and veer to SW early, then
to the N as a cold front passes through from 02Z to 05/06Z,
remaining under 10 kt. The flow will continue to veer to the
NE Wednesday morning, and then to the E/SE Wednesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR early Wednesday night then
MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance of a rain shower along
the coast, and a chance of snow showers inland Wednesday night.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20-
30 kt Saturday night.
Sunday: IFR or lower possible with showers, especially in the
afternoon and at night. S wind gusts 25-35 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions persist tonight and through much of the day
Wednesday with light flow. A more persistent E/SE flow picks up
late Wednesday which may generate wave heights near 5 feet on
some of the ocean zones by Wednesday night and into Thursday
night. All sheltered waters will remain below SCA thresholds.
Ocean seas are expected to lower below SCA criteria Friday, before
increasing once again late Saturday with strengthening southerly
flow. SCA conditions return to all waters by Sunday with 25 kt gusts
developing.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of this weekend.
There is potential for heavy downpours ahead of a frontal passage
Sunday and Sunday night. There remains uncertainty into the
duration and placement, but the possibility of nuisance flooding
cannot be ruled out.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MW
NEAR TERM...DR/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW