okx-afd on 2025-03-12

525
FXUS61 KOKX 121923
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
323 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains in control through Friday. As the high
retreats further out into the Atlantic, a warm front lifts through
the region Saturday, before a strong cold front moves through the
into Sunday night. Behind it, high pressure returns early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will remain north of the region today. Meanwhile, weak
low pressure passes south of the region. A weak shortwave will pass
north of the region. The system lacks moisture and some of the 12z
guidance is drier than its earlier runs. Have lowered POPs a bit, so
only looking at slight chance POPs for some rain/snow showers,
mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT. Otherwise,
expect a mostly cloudy night with an easterly flow. Lows tonight
will fall into the 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure north of the region gradually slides eastward
Thursday and Thursday night. Weak low pressure continues to pass
south of the area. The high will keep conditions dry through
the short term. It will remain mostly cloudy. The cloud cover
combined with an easterly flow, expect temperatures to remain in
the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure drifting off southeast Canada remains in control
locally to start the period on Friday. Along with weak ridging
aloft, conditions likely remain dry into Friday night.
Thereafter, the high drifts farther out into the Atlantic as a
warm front approaches from the south. A more unsettled pattern
then sets up this weekend as deepening low pressure cuts into
the Upper Great Lakes with a mid level trough amplifying as it
shifts east. This lifts the associated warm front thru the local
area Saturday, and strengthening southerly flow helps stream in
moisture from the Gulf into Sunday, with PWATs progged as high
as 1.5 inches, or about as high as recorded this time of year.
This will pose the potential for a period of heavy downpours
ahead of the attendant cold frontal passage, though some
lingering differences in guidance timing and placement that will
need to be resolved before getting too detailed. Conditions
should generally start to dry out into Monday as the system
exits and high pressure builds in from the South.

Temperatures remain above average through the period. In fact,
most should remain above the freezing mark into mid next week.
Mild overnight lows for Saturday night into Sunday, especially
away from the coast, as the area will be warm sectored. Low
temperatures will only drop into the 50s for these locations,
and upper 40s near the coast thanks to the relatively cooler
waters. Temperatures remain above average for the rest of the
long term with highs in the 50s and 60s. Cooler conditions are
expected along the coast once again.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure settles across Northern New England into this evening.
A weak wave of low pressure approaches and lingers nearby to the
southwest and south through Thursday morning.

Mainly VFR through the period, although there remains a chance of
MVFR conditions across northern most terminals tonight, and for the
30 hr TAF terminals late on Thursday. The highest chance will be
across northern most terminals overnight into Thursday morning
(KSWF, HPN, and KGON). Currently confidence of MVFR ceilings
occurrence remains below average.

Winds prevail from the E and SE at most terminals through the
evening push. Wind speeds will be at or just above 10 kt initially,
will then lighten a little tonight, before getting back to near 10
kt at most terminals Thursday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There may be amendments for the possibility of MVFR ceilings on
Thursday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR, along with pockets of MVFR possible late.
Winds E 7-12 kt.

Friday: Chance of sub VFR early, otherwise VFR.

Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20-
30 kt Saturday night.

Sunday: Patchy sub VFR possible with chance of showers. S winds 15-
20g25-35 kt.

Sunday night: More widespread and steadier rain possible Sunday
night with widespread IFR expected. S winds 10-15g20-30 kt, becoming
SW and diminishing late.

Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Seas on the ocean will remain between 4-6 ft through Thursday night,
mainly due to an onshore flow and a swell. Sub-advisory conditions
on the non-ocean waters are expected through Thursday night.

Ocean seas are expected to lower below SCA criteria Friday, before
increasing once again late Saturday with strengthening southerly
flow. SCA conditions return by Sunday with 25 to 30 kt gusts
developing on all waters. Gales possible as well, especially the
ocean, Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Ocean seas build as high
10 to 13 ft during this time. Winds should lower below 25 kt on all
waters by Monday morning, but ocean seas linger at or above 5 ft
into Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of this
weekend. There is potential for heavy downpours ahead of a
frontal passage Sunday and Sunday night. There remains
uncertainty into the duration and placement, but the possibility
of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...BC/BR
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/BR
HYDROLOGY...BC/BR