881
FXUS61 KOKX 122336
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. As the high
retreats further out into the Atlantic, a warm front lifts through
the region Saturday, before a strong cold front moves through the
into Sunday night. Behind it, high pressure returns early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Increased PoPs slightly (20 to 25 percent) across far interior
thru this evening as weak disturbance passes to the north and
produces a few rain or snow showers. QPF is light and limited
impacts, if any, expected with this activity. Forecast on track.
High pressure will remain north of the region today. Meanwhile, weak
low pressure passes south of the region. A weak shortwave will pass
north of the region. The system lacks moisture and some of the 12z
guidance is drier than its earlier runs. Have lowered POPs a bit, so
only looking at slight chance POPs for some rain/snow showers,
mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT. Otherwise,
expect a mostly cloudy night with an easterly flow. Lows tonight
will fall into the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure north of the region gradually slides eastward
Thursday and Thursday night. Weak low pressure continues to pass
south of the area. The high will keep conditions dry through
the short term. It will remain mostly cloudy. The cloud cover
combined with an easterly flow, expect temperatures to remain in
the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure drifting off southeast Canada remains in control
locally to start the period on Friday. Along with weak ridging
aloft, conditions likely remain dry into Friday night.
Thereafter, the high drifts farther out into the Atlantic as a
warm front approaches from the south. A more unsettled pattern
then sets up this weekend as deepening low pressure cuts into
the Upper Great Lakes with a mid level trough amplifying as it
shifts east. This lifts the associated warm front thru the local
area Saturday, and strengthening southerly flow helps stream in
moisture from the Gulf into Sunday, with PWATs progged as high
as 1.5 inches, or about as high as recorded this time of year.
This will pose the potential for a period of heavy downpours
ahead of the attendant cold frontal passage, though some
lingering differences in guidance timing and placement that will
need to be resolved before getting too detailed. Conditions
should generally start to dry out into Monday as the system
exits and high pressure builds in from the South.
Temperatures remain above average through the period. In fact,
most should remain above the freezing mark into mid next week.
Mild overnight lows for Saturday night into Sunday, especially
away from the coast, as the area will be warm sectored. Low
temperatures will only drop into the 50s for these locations,
and upper 40s near the coast thanks to the relatively cooler
waters. Temperatures remain above average for the rest of the
long term with highs in the 50s and 60s. Cooler conditions are
expected along the coast once again.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure settles across Northern New England this evening, then
drifts east into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday
night. A weak wave of low pressure lingers nearby to the southwest
and south through Thursday morning.
Mainly VFR through the period, with a chance of MVFR at KSWF
through 03Z with light snow or flurries, or sprinkles. There is
also a chance of MVFR ceilings toward the end of the forecast
for the terminals east of New York City, however, not very
confident in this occurring and used a TEMPO at this time.
Winds light early this evening, with a SE flow along the coast,
and variable inland. Winds will become easterly throughout the
region by late evening remaining under 10 kt. The east flow
increases Thursday morning to around 10 kt, and may be a little
higher at times along the coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is a low chance that MVFR ceilings develop toward 00Z
Friday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: VFR at the New York City terminals and NW, with
MVFR to the east.
Friday: Chance of sub VFR in the morning, otherwise VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20-
30 kt at night.
Sunday: Patchy sub VFR possible with chance of showers. S winds 15-
20g25-35 kt.
Sunday night: More widespread and steadier rain possible Sunday
night with widespread IFR expected. S winds 10-15g20-30 kt, becoming
SW and diminishing late.
Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas on the ocean will remain between 4-6 ft through Thursday night,
mainly due to an onshore flow and a swell. Sub-advisory conditions
on the non-ocean waters are expected through Thursday night.
Ocean seas are expected to lower below SCA criteria Friday, before
increasing once again late Saturday with strengthening southerly
flow. SCA conditions return by Sunday with 25 to 30 kt gusts
developing on all waters. Gales possible as well, especially the
ocean, Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Ocean seas build as high
10 to 13 ft during this time. Winds should lower below 25 kt on all
waters by Monday morning, but ocean seas linger at or above 5 ft
into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of this
weekend. There is potential for heavy downpours ahead of a
frontal passage Sunday and Sunday night. There remains
uncertainty into the duration and placement, but the possibility
of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...BC/DR
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DR