583
FXUS61 KOKX 131134
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Northeast retreats further out into
the Atlantic through Friday. A warm front lifts through the region
Saturday. A cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through late
at night into Monday morning. High pressure then follows for
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure north of the region gradually slides east today as
weak low pressure passes south of the area. The high will keep
conditions dry. However, with more clouds than sun for much of the
area, and combined with an easterly flow, temperatures will be closer
to normal for this time of year, in the upper 40s to around 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to slowly drift east off southeast Canada
through Friday. Along with weak ridging aloft, conditions likely
remain dry into Friday night. Thereafter, the high drifts farther
out into the Atlantic as a warm front approaches from the south. A
warm front approaches Friday night into Saturday morning and lifts
north Saturday into Saturday night.
With more in the way of sun and winds shifting from the east to the
southeast (albeit a light flow), Friday will see warmer temperatures
as compared to Thursday. Expect highs in the middle to upper 50s
away from the coast. Coastal areas will see highs in the upper 40s
to lower around 50 thanks to the relatively cooler waters.
Continued light southeasterly flow ahead of the approaching warm
front Friday night into Saturday morning will allow moisture to
increase in the lower levels. Fog and drizzle is possible during
this time frame. Fog should burn off mid to late Saturday morning.
Warmer conditions can be expected for Friday and Saturday with highs
in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Amplified 500mb trough approaches on Sunday with its axis shifting
through the forecast area during Monday. Associated cold front
approaches during the day Sunday and passes through during Sunday
night into Monday. This will bring showers, focused mostly during
the time frame of Sunday afternoon and night, with areas east of the
city likely still with showers Monday morning. CAPE is limited and
will leave out the mention of thunder for the time being. Areas west
of the Hudson would more likely have a chance of thunder, perhaps in
the evening hours with any lingering instability from daytime
heating and deep lift increasing. Rain could be heavy at times
nevertheless with PWATs increasing to around 1.50 inches and
enhanced lift with a low level jet and right-entrance of a jet
streak aloft. See the hydrology section below for potential impacts
from the rain.
The other thing to keep an eye on during Sunday night is the
potential for strong winds. 925mb jet of at least 60-70kt currently
progged to shift through. Area waters are still cold, but with
surface temps at least in the 50s, the low level inversion might not
be as strong as it usually is during the cold season and allow for
strong winds to mix down from aloft. Chance of at least advisory
levels winds exists, primarily from around the city to coastal
locations eastward.
High pressure builds in behind the system Monday afternoon and keeps
us dry through Wednesday. High temperatures through the long term
will be above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak wave of low pressure lingers nearby to the south today.
VFR during the daytime, then MVFR cigs possible mainly tonight
and mainly from KJFK on east tonight with the better chances at
KISP/KGON. Tempo MVFR will however be possible during the
daytime hours for the city terminals and KISP.
ENE winds 10-15kt for the coastal terminals, but closer to 10kt
inland. Winds back toward NE this evening, mostly around 10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to around 20kt for KJFK/KLGA through the
daytime hours. Tempo MVFR cigs possible after 15-16z at
KJFK/KEWR. A lower chance of Tempo MVFR cigs for KLGA/KTEB after
18z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Chance of MVFR in the morning, otherwise VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20-
30kt at night.
Sunday: MVFR with showers and LLWS mainly in the afternoon. Patchy
sub VFR possible with chance of showers. S winds gust 25-35kt.
Sunday night: MVFR/IFR in rain/showers. LLWS and S winds gust 30-
40kt. Winds becoming SW and diminishing late.
Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas on the ocean will remain between 4-6 ft through tonight, mainly
due to an onshore flow and a swell, and possibly through a good
portion of Friday morning. The SCA may have to be extended into
Friday morning.
Sub- advisory conditions then expected through Friday night for
all waters, before increasing once again late Saturday with
strengthening southerly flow. SCA conditions return by Sunday
with 25 to 30 kt gusts developing on all waters.
Good chance of gales on all waters Sunday and Sunday night with a
tight pressure gradient and strong low level jet in association with
a cold front passing through during Sunday night. SCA conds then
remain on the ocean waters for Monday, mainly due to lingering
swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall Sunday into
Monday, with most of this falling from late day Sunday through
Sunday night/early Monday morning. Heavy downpours will be possible
during this time with a chance of minor urban/poor drainage
flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP