014
FXUS61 KOKX 131458
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1058 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Northeast retreats further out into
the Atlantic through Friday. A warm front lifts through the region
Saturday. A cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through late
at night into Monday morning. High pressure then follows for
early next week.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure centered over eastern Maine and New Brunswick will move east. A ridge extending SW from the high along the Northeast coast into the Mid Atlantic will remain in place and be enhanced by a weak low passing to the south. It will remain dry today, with some high clouds passing overheard. An E maritime flow will however keep temps from rising very much, with highs from the mid 40s across eastern Long Island and along much of the coast, to the lower 50s from NYC west and in the CT River valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The high will continue to slowly drift E off SE Canada through Friday. Along with weak ridging aloft, conditions likely remain dry into Friday night. Thereafter, the high drifts farther out into the Atlantic as a warm front approaches from the south. A warm front approaches Friday night into Saturday morning and lifts north Saturday into Saturday night. With more in the way of sun and winds shifting from the east to the southeast (albeit a light flow), Friday will see warmer temperatures as compared to Thursday. Expect highs in the middle to upper 50s away from the coast. Coastal areas will see highs in the upper 40s to lower around 50 thanks to the relatively cooler waters. Continued light southeasterly flow ahead of the approaching warm front Friday night into Saturday morning will allow moisture to increase in the lower levels. Fog and drizzle is possible during this time frame. Fog should burn off mid to late Saturday morning. Milder conditions expected, with highs in the 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Amplified 500mb trough approaches on Sunday with its axis shifting through the forecast area during Monday. Associated cold front approaches during the day Sunday and passes through during Sunday night into Monday. This will bring showers, focused mostly during the time frame of Sunday afternoon and night, with areas east of the city likely still with showers Monday morning. CAPE is limited and will leave out the mention of thunder for the time being. Areas west of the Hudson would more likely have a chance of thunder, perhaps in the evening hours with any lingering instability from daytime heating and deep lift increasing. Rain could be heavy at times nevertheless with PWATs increasing to around 1.50 inches and enhanced lift with a low level jet and right-entrance of a jet streak aloft. See the hydrology section below for potential impacts from the rain. The other thing to keep an eye on during Sunday night is the potential for strong winds. 925mb jet of at least 60-70kt currently progged to shift through. Area waters are still cold, but with surface temps at least in the 50s, the low level inversion might not be as strong as it usually is during the cold season and allow for strong winds to mix down from aloft. Chance of at least advisory levels winds exists, primarily from around the city to coastal locations eastward. High pressure builds in behind the system Monday afternoon and keeps us dry through Wednesday. High temperatures through the long term will be above normal. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A weak wave of low pressure lingers nearby to the south today. VFR during the daytime, then MVFR cigs possible mainly tonight and mainly from KJFK on east tonight with the better chances at KISP/KGON. Tempo MVFR will however be possible during the daytime hours for the city terminals and KISP. ENE winds 10-15kt for the coastal terminals, but closer to 10kt inland. Winds back toward NE this evening, mostly around 10kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts up to around 20kt for KJFK/KLGA through the daytime hours. MVFR cigs may move in quicker than forecast, especially right along the coast. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: Chance of MVFR in the morning, otherwise VFR. Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20- 30kt at night. Sunday: MVFR with showers and LLWS mainly in the afternoon. Patchy sub VFR possible with chance of showers. S winds gust 25-35kt. Sunday night: MVFR/IFR in rain/showers. LLWS and S winds gust 30- 40kt. Winds becoming SW and diminishing late. Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Ocean seas on will remain between 5-7 ft today and 4-6 ft tonight, via combo of onshore flow and swell. Seas could still be as high as 5 ft Fri morning so the SCA may have to be extended through then. Sub-advisory conditions then expected through Friday night for all waters, before increasing once again late Saturday with strengthening southerly flow. SCA conditions return by Sunday with 25-30 kt gusts developing on all waters. Good chance of gales on all waters Sunday and Sunday night with a tight pressure gradient and strong low level jet in association with a cold front passing through during Sunday night. SCA conds then remain on the ocean waters for Monday, mainly due to lingering swell.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... There is the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall Sunday into Monday, with most of this falling from late day Sunday through Sunday night/early Monday morning. Heavy downpours will be possible during this time with a chance of minor urban/poor drainage flooding. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/JP NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...BC/JC MARINE...BG/JC/JP HYDROLOGY...JC/JP