829
FXUS61 KOKX 131759
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
159 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Northeast retreats further out into
the Atlantic through Friday. A warm front lifts through the region
Saturday. A cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through late
at night into Monday morning. High pressure then follows for
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure centered over eastern Maine and New Brunswick
will move east. A ridge extending SW from the high along the
Northeast coast into the Mid Atlantic will remain in place and
be enhanced by a weak low passing to the south. It will remain
dry today, with some high clouds passing overheard. An E
maritime flow will however keep temps from rising very much,
with highs from the mid 40s across eastern Long Island and along
much of the coast, to the lower 50s from NYC west and in the CT
River valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The high will continue to slowly drift E off SE Canada through
Friday. Along with weak ridging aloft, conditions likely remain
dry into Friday night. Thereafter, the high drifts farther out
into the Atlantic as a warm front approaches from the south. A
warm front approaches Friday night into Saturday morning and
lifts north Saturday into Saturday night.
With more in the way of sun and winds shifting from the east to
the southeast (albeit a light flow), Friday will see warmer
temperatures as compared to Thursday. Expect highs in the middle
to upper 50s away from the coast. Coastal areas will see highs
in the upper 40s to lower around 50 thanks to the relatively
cooler waters.
Continued light southeasterly flow ahead of the approaching warm
front Friday night into Saturday morning will allow moisture to
increase in the lower levels. Fog and drizzle is possible during
this time frame. Fog should burn off mid to late Saturday
morning.
Milder conditions expected, with highs in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Amplified 500mb trough approaches on Sunday with its axis shifting
through the forecast area during Monday. Associated cold front
approaches during the day Sunday and passes through during Sunday
night into Monday. This will bring showers, focused mostly during
the time frame of Sunday afternoon and night, with areas east of the
city likely still with showers Monday morning. CAPE is limited and
will leave out the mention of thunder for the time being. Areas west
of the Hudson would more likely have a chance of thunder, perhaps in
the evening hours with any lingering instability from daytime
heating and deep lift increasing. Rain could be heavy at times
nevertheless with PWATs increasing to around 1.50 inches and
enhanced lift with a low level jet and right-entrance of a jet
streak aloft. See the hydrology section below for potential impacts
from the rain.
The other thing to keep an eye on during Sunday night is the
potential for strong winds. 925mb jet of at least 60-70kt currently
progged to shift through. Area waters are still cold, but with
surface temps at least in the 50s, the low level inversion might not
be as strong as it usually is during the cold season and allow for
strong winds to mix down from aloft. Chance of at least advisory
levels winds exists, primarily from around the city to coastal
locations eastward.
High pressure builds in behind the system Monday afternoon and keeps
us dry through Wednesday. High temperatures through the long term
will be above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak wave of low pressure lingers south of the area today and
tonight, then slides further east on Friday.
VFR to start at all the area terminals. MVFR cigs are expected
tonight, mainly after 03z-05z. The only exception will be at
KSWF, where VFR is expected to prevail. There is some
uncertainty with the timing of the lower cigs. Improvement back
to VFR is expected around 15z Friday.
ENE winds 10-15kt for the coastal terminals, but closer to 10kt
inland. Winds back toward NE this evening, mostly around 10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to around 20kt. MVFR cigs may move in
quicker than forecast, especially right along the coast.
Improvement back to VFR Friday morning may be off by an hour or
two.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S gusts 20-
30kt at night.
Sunday: MVFR with showers and LLWS mainly in the afternoon. Chance
of showers. S winds gust 25-35kt.
Sunday night: MVFR/IFR in rain/showers. LLWS and S winds gust 30-
40kt. Winds becoming SW and diminishing late.
Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR.
Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas on will remain between 5-7 ft today and 4-6 ft
tonight, via combo of onshore flow and swell. Seas could still
be as high as 5 ft Fri morning so the SCA may have to be
extended through then.
Sub-advisory conditions then expected through Friday night for
all waters, before increasing once again late Saturday with
strengthening southerly flow. SCA conditions return by Sunday
with 25-30 kt gusts developing on all waters.
Good chance of gales on all waters Sunday and Sunday night with
a tight pressure gradient and strong low level jet in
association with a cold front passing through during Sunday
night. SCA conds then remain on the ocean waters for Monday,
mainly due to lingering swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There is the potential for 1-2 inches of rainfall Sunday into
Monday, with most of this falling from late day Sunday through
Sunday night/early Monday morning. Heavy downpours will be possible
during this time with a chance of minor urban/poor drainage
flooding.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP