478
FXUS61 KOKX 132018
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
418 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A high pressure ridge along the coast will shift inland tonight as weak low pressure passes by well to the southeast. The high will return to the coast on Friday, then weaken Friday night into Saturday. A warm front will lift through late Saturday, followed by a complex frontal system for Sunday into the first half of Monday. High pressure will return later Monday into Tuesday, before moving offshore on Wednesday. Another frontal system will approach on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A high pressure ridge right along the coast will shift inland tonight as a weak low passes well to the southeast, with winds backing from E-SE late today to NE tonight. Clouds with the offshore low are advancing northward and will likely move onshore across Long Island and SE CT tonight. Where skies remain mostly clear temps will fall into the upper 20s/lower 30s, with mid/upper 30s expected for the coast and the immediate NYC metro area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As the weak offshore low moves east the sfc high should reposition itself along the coast on Fri, with any AM clouds along the coast scattering by afternoon. With a mostly sunny afternoon and heights rising aloft expect a milder day, with high temps 50-55 along the coast and 55-60 inland. As the high weakens late Fri into Fri night a light return SE-S flow should develop, with an increase in low clouds especially closer to the coast. Low temps will range from the lower 40s invof NYC to the 30s elsewhere.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Key Points: * Overall an above normal temperature regime, especially during the daytime and further west across the region. * A complex frontal systems impacts the region Sunday PM into Monday AM. A central US trough lifts northeast this weekend and will impact the region Sun night / early Monday. This will be followed by Central US ridging by Monday, which will progress east and amplify through mid week. Another Pacific based trough then approaches with a complex frontal system towards Thu / Thu night with global NWP maintaining timing differences among the various camps. Occluded low pressure will drive up into the Midwest and Western Great Lakes to begin the period. An extensive warm front will emanate from the storm system all the way to the Eastern Seaboard. A broad southerly based synoptic flow regime sets up along the east coast and our area. Temperatures will overall average above normal, however half of the area will have a southerly wind coming off the colder ocean, thus this will modify temperatures quite a bit. Much of the higher res guidance as is WPC does analyze a warm front embedded in the southerly flow late in the day Saturday. This may be enough of a focusing mechanism and convergence zone to initiate some shower activity across the region on Saturday along with some diffuse mid level energy. Have gone with low end chance PoPs with shower activity mainly for Saturday afternoon and evening. Later Saturday night into Sunday morning should be shower free for the most part as the area gets firmly in the warm sector. The synoptic flow will then increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. The winds increase through the day as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold frontal boundary. NBM and LREF probabilistic guidance suggests a 40 to 50 percent chance of wind gusts at or slightly greater than 40 mph for the NYC metro and coastal sections. A surge of higher PWATs and theta-e moves up from the Piedmont and the Lower Mid Atlantic. Therefore have introduced a swath of slight chance of thunder for late Sunday / first half of Sunday for W / SW portions of the area. Any convection would likely be elevated with stable air getting into a good portion of the area on a southerly sfc flow. There is a fairly good chance of a period of moderate to perhaps even heavy rain for Sunday evening into a portion of the overnight into Monday morning from west to east ahead of the boundary. Probabilistic precip guidance from the NBM and LREF is suggestive of a 50 to 70 percent chance of an inch of rain, with a reasonable worst case (10 to 20% chance) of up to two inches. The frontal system is expected to get off the coast sometime during the day Monday with some subtle timing difference among global NWP. It is likely by afternoon some clearing gets into portions of the area. With a W flow have gone a bit above NBM temp guidance on Monday, and also on Tuesday on a W to SW flow. There is a chance if the sfc wind direction has enough of a W component that temperatures could be underdone by quite a bit on Tuesday with a pacific air mass source region. With an amplifying mid and upper level ridge temperatures should continue to average above normal into Wednesday, with guidance more suggestive of a southerly component to the winds which could keep eastern sections much cooler than western locations for both Wednesday and Thursday. Thus later next week day time temperature may be significantly above normal further west, and only slightly above normal further east across the area. The ridge does break down late Wednesday as the next frontal system approaches. This system would be bring the next chance or likelihood of rain towards Thu or Thu night depending on the speed and progression of the system.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A weak wave of low pressure lingers south of the area today and tonight, then slides further east on Friday. VFR to start at all the area terminals. MVFR cigs are expected tonight, mainly after 03z-05z. The only exception will be at KSWF, where VFR is expected to prevail. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the lower cigs. Improvement back to VFR is expected around 15z Friday. ENE winds 10-15kt for the coastal terminals, but closer to 10kt inland. Winds back toward NE this evening, mostly around 10kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional gusts up to around 20kt. MVFR cigs may move in quicker than forecast, especially right along the coast. Improvement back to VFR Friday morning may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday: VFR. Saturday: MVFR possible. Slight chance of rain showers. S winds G20-30kt at night. Sunday: MVFR with showers and LLWS mainly in the afternoon. Chance of showers. S winds G25-35kt. Sunday night: MVFR/IFR in rain/showers. LLWS and S winds G30-40kt. Winds becoming SW and diminishing late. Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA on the ocean extended into early Fri afternoon. Seas there remain at 5-7 ft, highest in the NY Bight on E flow 15-20 kt, and will take longer to subside below 5 ft as flow backs NE tonight and slowly diminishes, then becomes light SE-S later Fri into Fri night. SCA conditions should again develop from south to north across the waters Saturday night as a southerly fetch strengthens. Conditions are likely to quickly ramp up to gales, first on the ocean and then also for the near shore non-ocean waters Sunday afternoon. With an inversion likely on the waters gusts to storm force seem unlikely at this time. The cold front will likely begin to swing through late Sunday night / early Monday morning with the winds lowering and switching to the W, then NW into the day Monday. Elevated small craft seas will continue on the ocean through at least Tuesday morning, with sub small craft seas likely returning either late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Potential exists for a widespread 1 inch rainfall event from late Sunday into the first half of Monday, with a 10-20 percent chance (reasonable worst case scenario) of up to 2 inches. At this time only localized minor nuisance/urban type flooding is anticipated.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/BG NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JE AVIATION...BC MARINE...JE/BG HYDROLOGY...JE