185
FXUS61 KOKX 132336
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge along the coast will shift inland tonight
as weak low pressure passes by well to the southeast. The high
will return to the coast on Friday, then weaken Friday night
into Saturday. A warm front will lift through late Saturday,
followed by a complex frontal system for Sunday into the first
half of Monday. High pressure will return later Monday into
Tuesday, before moving offshore on Wednesday. Another frontal
system will approach on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increased cloud cover across Long Island and into the NYC metro
region as offshore low clouds have begun to move inland, and
will spread north and west into tonight. Otherwise, only minor
updates were done for current conditions.
A high pressure ridge right along the coast will shift inland
tonight as a weak low passes well to the southeast, with winds
backing from E-SE late today to NE tonight. Clouds with the
offshore low are advancing northward and will likely move
onshore across Long Island and SE CT tonight. Where skies remain
mostly clear temps will fall into the upper 20s/lower 30s, with
mid/upper 30s expected for the coast and the immediate NYC
metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the weak offshore low moves east the sfc high should
reposition itself along the coast on Fri, with any AM clouds
along the coast scattering by afternoon. With a mostly sunny
afternoon and heights rising aloft expect a milder day, with
high temps 50-55 along the coast and 55-60 inland.
As the high weakens late Fri into Fri night a light return SE-S
flow should develop, with an increase in low clouds especially
closer to the coast. Low temps will range from the lower 40s
invof NYC to the 30s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:
* Overall an above normal temperature regime, especially during
the daytime and further west across the region.
* A complex frontal systems impacts the region Sunday PM into
Monday AM.
A central US trough lifts northeast this weekend and will impact
the region Sun night / early Monday. This will be followed by
Central US ridging by Monday, which will progress east and
amplify through mid week. Another Pacific based trough then
approaches with a complex frontal system towards Thu / Thu night
with global NWP maintaining timing differences among the
various camps.
Occluded low pressure will drive up into the Midwest and Western
Great Lakes to begin the period. An extensive warm front will
emanate from the storm system all the way to the Eastern
Seaboard. A broad southerly based synoptic flow regime sets up
along the east coast and our area. Temperatures will overall
average above normal, however half of the area will have a
southerly wind coming off the colder ocean, thus this will
modify temperatures quite a bit. Much of the higher res guidance
as is WPC does analyze a warm front embedded in the southerly
flow late in the day Saturday. This may be enough of a focusing
mechanism and convergence zone to initiate some shower activity
across the region on Saturday along with some diffuse mid level
energy. Have gone with low end chance PoPs with shower activity
mainly for Saturday afternoon and evening. Later Saturday night
into Sunday morning should be shower free for the most part as
the area gets firmly in the warm sector. The synoptic flow will
then increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. The
winds increase through the day as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the cold frontal boundary. NBM and LREF probabilistic
guidance suggests a 40 to 50 percent chance of wind gusts at or
slightly greater than 40 mph for the NYC metro and coastal
sections. A surge of higher PWATs and theta-e moves up from the
Piedmont and the Lower Mid Atlantic. Therefore have introduced a
swath of slight chance of thunder for late Sunday / first half
of Sunday for W / SW portions of the area. Any convection would
likely be elevated with stable air getting into a good portion
of the area on a southerly sfc flow. There is a fairly good
chance of a period of moderate to perhaps even heavy rain for
Sunday evening into a portion of the overnight into Monday
morning from west to east ahead of the boundary. Probabilistic
precip guidance from the NBM and LREF is suggestive of a 50 to
70 percent chance of an inch of rain, with a reasonable worst
case (10 to 20% chance) of up to two inches.
The frontal system is expected to get off the coast sometime
during the day Monday with some subtle timing difference among
global NWP. It is likely by afternoon some clearing gets into
portions of the area. With a W flow have gone a bit above NBM
temp guidance on Monday, and also on Tuesday on a W to SW flow.
There is a chance if the sfc wind direction has enough of a W
component that temperatures could be underdone by quite a bit on
Tuesday with a pacific air mass source region. With an
amplifying mid and upper level ridge temperatures should
continue to average above normal into Wednesday, with guidance
more suggestive of a southerly component to the winds which
could keep eastern sections much cooler than western locations
for both Wednesday and Thursday. Thus later next week day time
temperature may be significantly above normal further west, and
only slightly above normal further east across the area. The
ridge does break down late Wednesday as the next frontal system
approaches. This system would be bring the next chance or
likelihood of rain towards Thu or Thu night depending on the
speed and progression of the system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control tonight into Friday, moving
offshore late Friday afternoon and into Friday night.
VFR to start at all the area terminals, Then MVFR ceilings
develop through this evening, as low clouds move in off the
ocean waters and spread north and west. Timing of lowering
conditions is uncertain and confidence is low. MVFR may develop
earlier than forecast. Also, uncertain as to how far inland MVFR
ceilings will be, with KSWF expected to remain VFR. Conditions
improve to VFR Friday morning, however, timing of the
improvement may be off an hour or two, and possible conditions
remain MVFR well into the afternoon, especially along the coast.
E winds early back to NE this evening, and then back to E late
Friday morning, and then SE late in the day. Winds will be light
through the forecast, around 5 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence on the timing of MVFR ceilings this evening, and
may be quicker than forecast, especially at KJFK, and possible
later at KTEB. Timing of improvement back to VFR Friday morning
may be off by an hour or two, and possible that MVFR remains
much of the day.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR early, then becoming MVFR late evening and
overnight.
Saturday: MVFR in the morning, VFR in the afternoon. Chance of
rain showers during the afternoon and at night. S winds
G20-30kt at night.
Sunday: MVFR with showers and LLWS mainly in the afternoon.
Chance of showers. S winds G25-35kt.
Sunday night: MVFR/IFR in rain/showers, a thunderstorm possible.
LLWS and S winds G30-40kt. Winds becoming SW and diminishing
late.
Monday: Sub VFR possible in AM, otherwise becoming VFR. Showers
ending west to east during the afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.
SCA on the ocean extended into early Fri afternoon. Seas there
remain at 5-7 ft, highest in the NY Bight on E flow 15-20 kt,
and will take longer to subside below 5 ft as flow backs NE
tonight and slowly diminishes, then becomes light SE-S later
Fri into Fri night.
SCA conditions should again develop from south to north across
the waters Saturday night as a southerly fetch strengthens.
Conditions are likely to quickly ramp up to gales, first on the
ocean and then also for the near shore non-ocean waters Sunday
afternoon. With an inversion likely on the waters gusts to storm
force seem unlikely at this time. The cold front will likely
begin to swing through late Sunday night / early Monday morning
with the winds lowering and switching to the W, then NW into the
day Monday. Elevated small craft seas will continue on the
ocean through at least Tuesday morning, with sub small craft
seas likely returning either late Tuesday or Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Potential exists for a widespread 1 inch rainfall event from
late Sunday into the first half of Monday, with a 10-20
percent chance (reasonable worst case scenario) of up to 2
inches. At this time only localized minor nuisance/urban type
flooding is anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/MET
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE