635
FXUS61 KOKX 141805
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
205 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today and weaken tonight into
Saturday morning. A warm front lifts through late Saturday ahead of
a complex frontal system that impacts the area Sunday through
early Monday. High pressure will return later Monday into
Tuesday, before moving offshore on Wednesday. Another frontal
system will approach on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A ridge of high pressure over the area this morning will more
firmly establish itself over the area today as a weak wave of
low pressure moves to the east of the area. Extensive low
stratus over the area this morning has no completely dissipated.
Highs today will be in the low 50s along the coast to middle to
upper 50s for the interior and NYC metro.
The high pressure weakens tonight as a light S/SE flow develops,
advecting low level moisture back into the area. This will result in
areas of drizzle and fog late tonight and into Saturday morning.
Lows tonight will be in the middle 30s to low 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Saturday, an approaching complex frontal system will begin to
impact the area. In addition to the extensive cloud cover and
morning drizzle and fog, a warm front will approach from the south
and move through late Saturday. This will continue to increase low
level moisture in the area, possibly such that a few light rain
showers may develop with the warm frontal passage. Highs Saturday
will be in the 50s.
As the complex frontal system approaches from the west Saturday
night, southerly flow increases substantially overnight Saturday and
into Sunday morning. The area will be entrenched in a breezy
southerly flow during the day on Sunday, perhaps with surface gusts
upwards of 35-45 mph, though an inversion will prevent the strongest
winds from the LLJ from reaching the surface. Despite the proximity
to the approaching system, it`s possible that much of the day Sunday
will be dry as the area will remain in the warm sector of the
complex frontal system. High temperatures Sunday will be in the 60s
for much of the area, though coastal areas may remain in the 50s
with an onshore flow off a cool ocean keep temperatures a bit more
moderated.
The cold front approaches the area from the west late Sunday
afternoon and into the evening. Given the ample moisture ahead of
the front, rain is expected to be at least moderate to possibly
locally heavy in intensity. Some elevated instability may result in
isolated thunder as the frontal system slowly moves through the area
Sunday night. The front continues to progress through the area into
Monday morning with some residual showers remaining possible for the
area on Monday, though the reduction in the pressure gradient should
allow the winds to relax a bit. Showers should come to an end from
west to east on Monday before pushing east by Monday afternoon.
Total rainfall amounts are expected to be generally 1-1.5 inches
with the higher totals expected along the coast and to the east of
the area. Locally upwards of 2 inches of rainfall is possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging aloft with high pressure at the surface will keep the region
dry Monday night through Wednesday night. A cold front then
approaches on Thursday with good agreement among the global models
that the front passes through sometime during Thursday night.
Therefore, better chances of showers at night versus the day with
PoPs capped at 50 percent being that this is a week away.
Temperatures through the long term will be above normal with highs
mainly mid and upper 50s for much of Long Island and Coastal CT, and
60s elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly moves offshore with a warm front approaching
late in the TAF period.
Low stratus has scattered out with VFR conditions expected for this
afternoon.
Low stratus and fog are expected tonight from east to west. Areas of
drizzle are expected late tonight into early Saturday morning.
VFR transitions to MVFR and eventually IFR with the potential for
LIFR. Have LIFR for KGON but just in tempos elsewhere for early
Saturday morning.
IFR conditions expected into Saturday morning with forecast
improvement to MVFR and eventually MVFR Saturday afternoon.
Winds generally S-SE near 5-10 kts this afternoon. Winds become
lighter and more variable in direction tonight before resuming a SE
flow Saturday. Wind speeds overall will not change much.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF.
Timing of wind direction changes at KLGA from NE to SE could be 1-2
hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: Improvement to MVFR and VFR. Slight chance
of a rain shower.
Saturday night: Return of MVFR and IFR. LIFR possible. Chance of
rain showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Gusty SW wind gusts near 20
kt developing late.
Sunday: Areas of fog and drizzle early with IFR to LIFR possible. S-
SW wind gusts near 30-40 kt. LLWS possible. Slight chance of rain
showers, rain shower chances increase late afternoon, becoming
likely north and west of NYC terminals. Rain showers expected at
night, heavy at times. Possible thunderstorms at night near and
north and west of NYC.
Monday: Rain showers early, mainly east of NYC terminals with MVFR
to IFR possible. Rain showers taper off at night. Conditions
eventually return to VFR. Possible NW wind gusts afternoon into
early evening to 20 kt.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA on the ocean will continue through the afternoon today with
waves around 5 feet. Sub-SCA is then expected on all waters through
Saturday. By Saturday night, an increase in southerly winds will
allow wave heights to build above 5 feet on the ocean. By Sunday
morning, widespread gales are possible on all waters, but most
likely for the ocean with gusts 35-40 kt. The cold front moves
through the area Sunday night which allows the gusts to reduce to
SCA and eventually sub-SCA by Monday morning, but elevated wave
heights on the ocean will allow SCA conditions to continue there
through at least Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread 1-1.5 inch rainfall event is likely from late
Sunday into the first half of Monday, with a 10-20 percent
chance (reasonable worst case scenario) of up to 2 inches. At
this time only localized minor nuisance/urban type flooding is
anticipated.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...JT/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW