794
FXUS61 KOKX 141937
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
337 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Surface ridging from offshore high pressure remains over the area
tonight through much of Saturday. A warm front moves through
Saturday evening and is followed by a strong cold front Monday
morning. High pressure begins to build into the area Monday night
and will remain in control through Wednesday. A fast moving
frontal system approaches next Thursday, potentially impacting the
area to end next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure noses in from the east tonight and holds its
ground against low pressure tracking well west of us. The
pressure gradient remains weak and the result is a very light
SE/S flow. Given this set up, the main story tonight will be fog
and drizzle. The flow has had some type of easterly component
to it the past few days. This should mean there will be little
stopping at least patchy fog from developing with the light
onshore flow tonight. However, the thinking is that the fog will
be more widespread and have stuck with areas of 2 mile fog in
the forecast. There is potential for at least patchy dense fog
as well. Given very weak lift and the shallow saturated layer,
drizzle is also expected. While low clouds move in this evening,
any drizzle or fog will likely move in later in the night,
closer to midnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A SE/S flow continues on Saturday as low pressure tracks well to our
west and high pressure remains offshore. A warm front gradually
approaches from the south. We likely stay locked under cloud cover
through the day, but some breaks may be possible in the afternoon.
Temperatures likely reach the upper 50s for northeast NJ, NYC, the
Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT, but LI and coastal CT will
likely top out in the low 50s given the flow off the cold waters.
The warm front moves through Saturday evening and is accompanied by
a slight chance of showers. Saturday night through Sunday the
pressure gradient over the area increases as a strong cold front
approaches from the west. As the front approaches and moves through,
a combination of anomalous moisture and deep strong lift will result
in widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Per SPC`s Sounding
Climatology Page, the progged Pwat of around 1.45 inches is well
above the max moving average (1.22 inches) and the daily max (1.25
inches) for the 00z 3/17 OKX upper air sounding. See hydrology
section below.
With little MUCAPE being seen across the guidance, kept mention of
slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Limited this to
mainly NYC and west as the time of year and time of day are working
against any storms surviving farther east. Although there is plenty
of shear in this environment, SB and ML CAPE is mainly zero through
this event. This limits the severe concern of any thunderstorm that
do develop. The SPC has trimmed back the marginal risk which is
now west of the area.
Wind gust forecast has not changed much. Due to a strong
inversion, derived gusts by taking 60% of the NAM 925mb winds
and blending with the NBM90th percentile wind gusts. This gave
widespread 35 to 45 mph gusts Sunday afternoon through the first
half of Sunday night. At this time a Wind Advisory is not
likely, but can not be completely ruled out. Isolated gusts up
to Advisory criteria are possible.
Once the actual cold front starts moving through early Monday
morning, the guidance is hinting at low pressure developing along
the front to our south. This trend needs to be monitored because it
will result in higher rainfall totals for the eastern half of the
area. This process looks to be aided by the area being right under a
right entrance region of an upper level jet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Key Points
*Dry conditions return Monday night and should prevail through mid
week.
*Another frontal system potentially impacts the area to end the week
bringing the next chance for showers, mainly Thursday and Thursday
night.
*Temperatures look to average above normal next week.
The deepest moisture associated with the frontal system late Sunday
night into Monday should reside offshore by Monday night.
However, model guidance has been indicating potential for a wave to
form on the front, which may linger a few showers across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut Monday evening.
The passage of the upper trough axis will help push this further
offshore into Tuesday morning with high pressure building into the
region. An upper ridge will then take shape for the mid week period.
A piece of the departing shortwave likely becomes a cutoff low
somewhere over the Western Atlantic, but will stay far enough away
from the region for no impact to our sensible weather.
The next amplifying shortwave will begin approaching Wednesday night
into Thursday. The deterministic global models and ensemble means
are in good agreement on the associated frontal system quickly
sweeping across the area Thursday into Thursday night. Have held
onto a 50 percent chance for showers late Thursday/Thursday night
for now since this is still about a week out. The system also
encounters lingering subsidence on the backside of the offshore
closed low, which may limit moisture return until the system moves
into the area. The latest NBM probabilities for observing greater
than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period with this system are low and less
than 10 percent at this time.
The front should be offshore next Friday, but the upper trough may
be overhead and could become a cutoff low somewhere over New England
or southeast Canada. While it will likely be dry, cooler conditions
may return with temperatures struggling to rise out of the 40s.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected through the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure slowly moves offshore with a warm front approaching
late in the TAF period.
Initially VFR conditions are expected to continue into early this
evening. However, low stratus and fog are expected late evening into
overnight from east to west. Areas of drizzle are expected late
tonight into early Saturday morning. VFR transitions to MVFR and
eventually IFR with the potential for LIFR. Have LIFR for KGON but
just in tempos elsewhere for early Saturday morning.
IFR conditions expected into Saturday morning with forecast
improvement to MVFR and eventually MVFR Saturday afternoon.
Winds generally S-SE near 5-10 kts this afternoon. Winds become
lighter and more variable in direction tonight before resuming a SE
flow Saturday. Wind speeds overall will not change much.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: Improvement to MVFR and VFR. Slight chance
of a rain shower late.
Saturday night: Return of MVFR and IFR. LIFR possible. Chance of
rain showers. Areas of fog. Gusty SW wind gusts near 20 kt
developing late.
Sunday: Areas of fog early with IFR to LIFR possible. S-SW wind
gusts near 30-40 kt. LLWS possible. Slight chance of rain showers,
rain shower chances increase late afternoon, becoming likely north
and west of NYC terminals. Rain showers expected at night, heavy at
times. Possible thunderstorms at night near and north and west of
NYC terminals.
Monday: Rain showers early, mainly east of NYC terminals with MVFR
to IFR possible. Rain showers taper off afternoon into night from
west to east. Conditions eventually return to VFR. Possible NW wind
gusts afternoon into early evening to 20 kt.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Fog is likely tonight through Saturday night on the waters, mainly
during nighttime. There is potential for the fog to be dense at
times. This will continue to be monitored and a Dense Fog Advisory
or Marine Weather Statement may need to be issued.
Sub SCA conditions expected on all waters through much of Saturday
night. A southerly flow then really picks up ahead of an approaching
frontal system and Gale Conditions are expected by Sunday morning. A
Gale Watch has been issued for all waters from 6AM Sunday through
6AM Monday. 35 to 40 kt gusts are possible on the ocean waters with
10-11 foot seas. On all non ocean waters gusts will likely be closer
to 35 kt. A cold front moves through on Monday and sub-SCA
conditions are expected thereafter. However 7 to 8 foot seas will
linger on the ocean waters.
Winds on the waters Monday through Wednesday will remain below SCA
levels. Ocean seas will remain elevated through mid week behind the
departing frontal system and due to lingering SE swells from a low
pressure over the western Atlantic.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected Sunday evening
through Monday with the higher end of forecast totals being over
eastern CT and eastern LI and the lower end being over the Lower
Hudson Valley. At this time only localized minor nuisance/urban type
flooding is anticipated.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT