779
FXUS61 KOKX 150253
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1053 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface ridging from offshore high pressure remains over the area
tonight through much of Saturday. A warm front moves through
Saturday evening and is followed by a strong cold front Monday
morning. High pressure begins to build into the area Monday night
and will remain in control through Wednesday. A fast moving
frontal system approaches next Thursday, potentially impacting the
area to end next week.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast update to reflect the latest observations, most notably the stratus and fog moving in off the ocean. Clouds continue to lower from south to north and visibilities have started to fall in area of fog. No need for a dense fog advisory yet, however this will need to be monitored, with some widespread 1/4 mile visibilities expected closer to sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure noses in from the east tonight and holds its ground against low pressure tracking well west of us. The pressure gradient remains weak and the result is a very light SE/S flow. Given this set up, the main story tonight will be fog and drizzle. The flow has had some type of easterly component to it the past few days. This should mean there will be little stopping at least patchy fog from developing with the light onshore flow tonight. However, the thinking is that the fog will be more widespread and have stuck with areas of 2 mile fog in the forecast. There is potential for at least patchy dense fog as well. Given very weak lift and the shallow saturated layer, drizzle is also expected. While low clouds move in this evening, any drizzle or fog will likely move in later in the night, closer to midnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... A SE/S flow continues on Saturday as low pressure tracks well to our west and high pressure remains offshore. A warm front gradually approaches from the south. We likely stay locked under cloud cover through the day, but some breaks may be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures likely reach the upper 50s for northeast NJ, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley and interior CT, but LI and coastal CT will likely top out in the low 50s given the flow off the cold waters. The warm front moves through Saturday evening and is accompanied by a slight chance of showers. Saturday night through Sunday the pressure gradient over the area increases as a strong cold front approaches from the west. As the front approaches and moves through, a combination of anomalous moisture and deep strong lift will result in widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Per SPC`s Sounding Climatology Page, the progged Pwat of around 1.45 inches is well above the max moving average (1.22 inches) and the daily max (1.25 inches) for the 00z 3/17 OKX upper air sounding. See hydrology section below. With little MUCAPE being seen across the guidance, kept mention of slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Limited this to mainly NYC and west as the time of year and time of day are working against any storms surviving farther east. Although there is plenty of shear in this environment, SB and ML CAPE is mainly zero through this event. This limits the severe concern of any thunderstorm that do develop. The SPC has trimmed back the marginal risk which is now west of the area. Wind gust forecast has not changed much. Due to a strong inversion, derived gusts by taking 60% of the NAM 925mb winds and blending with the NBM90th percentile wind gusts. This gave widespread 35 to 45 mph gusts Sunday afternoon through the first half of Sunday night. At this time a Wind Advisory is not likely, but can not be completely ruled out. Isolated gusts up to Advisory criteria are possible. Once the actual cold front starts moving through early Monday morning, the guidance is hinting at low pressure developing along the front to our south. This trend needs to be monitored because it will result in higher rainfall totals for the eastern half of the area. This process looks to be aided by the area being right under a right entrance region of an upper level jet. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Points *Dry conditions return Monday night and should prevail through mid week. *Another frontal system potentially impacts the area to end the week bringing the next chance for showers, mainly Thursday and Thursday night. *Temperatures look to average above normal next week. The deepest moisture associated with the frontal system late Sunday night into Monday should reside offshore by Monday night. However, model guidance has been indicating potential for a wave to form on the front, which may linger a few showers across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut Monday evening. The passage of the upper trough axis will help push this further offshore into Tuesday morning with high pressure building into the region. An upper ridge will then take shape for the mid week period. A piece of the departing shortwave likely becomes a cutoff low somewhere over the Western Atlantic, but will stay far enough away from the region for no impact to our sensible weather. The next amplifying shortwave will begin approaching Wednesday night into Thursday. The deterministic global models and ensemble means are in good agreement on the associated frontal system quickly sweeping across the area Thursday into Thursday night. Have held onto a 50 percent chance for showers late Thursday/Thursday night for now since this is still about a week out. The system also encounters lingering subsidence on the backside of the offshore closed low, which may limit moisture return until the system moves into the area. The latest NBM probabilities for observing greater than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period with this system are low and less than 10 percent at this time. The front should be offshore next Friday, but the upper trough may be overhead and could become a cutoff low somewhere over New England or southeast Canada. While it will likely be dry, cooler conditions may return with temperatures struggling to rise out of the 40s. Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected through the week. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure slowly moves offshore with a warm front approaching late in the TAF period. Low stratus and fog continue to overspread the area terminals this evening and will remain in place the middle portion of Saturday morning. Conditions are expected to fall to IFR everywhere, with the potential (especially along the coast) to fall to LIFR or lower. Also, expect areas of drizzle late tonight into early Saturday morning. IFR conditions expected into Saturday morning with forecast improvement to MVFR and possibly VFR Saturday afternoon. Conditions are expected to lower back to IFR or lower Saturday night. Winds generally S-SE near 5-10 kts this afternoon. Winds become lighter and more variable in direction tonight before resuming a SE flow Saturday. Wind speeds overall will not change much. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday night: Return of MVFR and IFR. LIFR possible. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog. Gusty SW wind gusts near 20 kt developing late. Sunday: Areas of fog early with IFR to LIFR possible. S-SW wind gusts near 30-40 kt. LLWS possible. Slight chance of rain showers, rain shower chances increase late afternoon, becoming likely north and west of NYC terminals. Rain showers expected at night, heavy at times. Possible thunderstorms at night near and north and west of NYC terminals. Monday: Rain showers early, mainly east of NYC terminals with MVFR to IFR possible. Rain showers taper off afternoon into night from west to east. Conditions eventually return to VFR. Possible NW wind gusts afternoon into early evening to 20 kt. Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Fog is likely tonight through Saturday night on the waters, mainly during nighttime. There is potential for the fog to be dense at times. This will continue to be monitored and a Dense Fog Advisory or Marine Weather Statement may need to be issued. Sub SCA conditions expected on all waters through much of Saturday night. A southerly flow then really picks up ahead of an approaching frontal system and Gale Conditions are expected by Sunday morning. A Gale Watch has been issued for all waters from 6AM Sunday through 6AM Monday. 35 to 40 kt gusts are possible on the ocean waters with 10-11 foot seas. On all non ocean waters gusts will likely be closer to 35 kt. A cold front moves through on Monday and sub-SCA conditions are expected thereafter. However 7 to 8 foot seas will linger on the ocean waters. Winds on the waters Monday through Wednesday will remain below SCA levels. Ocean seas will remain elevated through mid week behind the departing frontal system and due to lingering SE swells from a low pressure over the western Atlantic. && .HYDROLOGY... A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected Sunday evening through Monday with the higher end of forecast totals being over eastern CT and eastern LI and the lower end being over the Lower Hudson Valley. At this time only localized minor nuisance/urban type flooding is anticipated. No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JT NEAR TERM...BC/DS/JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BC MARINE...DS/JT HYDROLOGY...DS/JT