843
FXUS61 KOKX 151809
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak offshore high pressure remains in control into this evening.
A warm front lifts through tonight, and is followed by a strong
cold front Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then begins to
build into the area through midweek. A fast moving frontal system
approaches next Thursday, potentially impacting the area to end
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle remains across much of the
area, and will likely continue into early this afternoon, as
southerly flow continues under a strong low level inversion.
Visibilities were generally 2 to 3 miles.
Slow improvement is possible into later this afternoon, although
clouds will likely persist.
Otherwise, weak high pressure nearby exits further out into the
Atlantic today, with a persistent light SE/S flow continuing.
The area likely remains largely overcast through the day, but a
few breaks are possible in the afternoon. Into tonight, as a sub
980 mb surface low cuts north over the Upper Great Lakes and
into Ontario, an attendant warm front to the south will lift
through locally. A few showers may develop as the frontal
boundary works through late this evening and into the overnight,
but QPF is light with this activity, and some may remain dry
initially.
Temperatures top out in the mid 50s for northeast NJ, NYC, the
Lower Hudson Valley, and interior CT, and around 50 along the
coast with the flow off the cooler waters. Overnight remains
relatively mild with the warm front moving through, lows in the
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Strengthening southerly flow Sunday as the warm front passes
north and the pressure gradient tightens with the surface low
moving closer. The first half of the day likely remains mostly
dry, though chances begin to quickly increase by late afternoon
and early evening ahead of a potent associated cold front
sweeping east.
A feed of deep moisture will combine with strong lift from the
front and result in widespread moderate to locally heavy
rainfall Sunday evening and night. Progged PWATs of around 1.5
inches are about as high as measured this time of year and
highlight the potential for rainfall rates to approach or exceed
0.50 in per hour at times. This may lead to flooding of urban
and poor drainage areas, and localized flash flooding cannot be
ruled out. With only weak instability and a strong low level
inversion, limited mention of thunder to slight chance and just
over western portions of the area should expected activity
survive before reaching the more stable environment as it works
east. Though winds just off the surface are expected to be
sharply increase with a 70 kt LLJ at 900 mb sliding overhead, a
strong inversion should help limit how much is able to mix down
to the surface. Still, anticipating widespread 35 to 45 mph
gusts Sunday afternoon through the first half of Sunday night.
Once the cold front starts moving through early Monday morning,
the guidance is hinting at low pressure developing along the
front to our south. This trend needs to be monitored because it
could result in higher rainfall totals for the eastern half of
the area. This process looks to be aided by the area being right
under a right entrance region of an upper level jet. Total
rainfall of around an inch for the Lower Hudson Valley increases
to around two inches for eastern CT and LI. Localized amounts
could be as high as three inches in these areas. Gradual drying
from west to east Monday as the system exits, though showers may
persist across eastern areas into the afternoon before this
occurs.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points
*Dry conditions return Monday night and should prevail through mid
week.
*Another frontal system potentially impacts the area to end the week
bringing the next chance for showers, mainly Thursday and Thursday
night.
*Temperatures look to average above normal next week.
The deepest moisture associated with the frontal system late Sunday
night into Monday should reside offshore by Monday night.
However, model guidance has been indicating potential for a wave to
form on the front, which may linger a few showers across eastern
Long Island and southeast Connecticut Monday evening.
The passage of the upper trough axis will help push this further
offshore into Tuesday morning with high pressure building into the
region. An upper ridge will then take shape for the mid week period.
A piece of the departing shortwave likely becomes a cutoff low
somewhere over the Western Atlantic, but will stay far enough away
from the region for no impact to our sensible weather.
The next amplifying shortwave will begin approaching Wednesday night
into Thursday. The deterministic global models and ensemble means
are in good agreement on the associated frontal system quickly
sweeping across the area Thursday into Thursday night. Have held
onto a 50 percent chance for showers late Thursday/Thursday night
for now since this is still about a week out. The system also
encounters lingering subsidence on the backside of the offshore
closed low, which may limit moisture return until the system moves
into the area. The latest NBM probabilities for observing greater
than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period with this system are low and less
than 10 percent at this time.
The front should be offshore next Friday, but the upper trough may
be overhead and could become a cutoff low somewhere over New England
or southeast Canada. While it will likely be dry, cooler conditions
may return with temperatures struggling to rise out of the 40s.
Otherwise, above normal temperatures are expected through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slowly moves offshore with a warm front
moving through tonight. A cold front approaches from the west
late Sunday.
Generally IFR and LIFR conditions are expected through today
with possibly some TAF sites improving to MVFR 18Z-00Z, but
confidence is very low. Conditions quickly go back to IFR or
lower this evening with additional drizzle and fog possible.
Showers are expected to start at around 20-23Z Sunday.
Winds generally S-SE near 5-10 kts through this afternoon.
Winds become primarily S tonight with a warm frontal passage and
speed steadily increases to 10kt late tonight. By 12Z Sunday, S
wind at 10-20kt with gusts upwards of 25-30kt will be possible,
especially along the coast. LLWS is expected by 6Z at 2kft from
the S at 40kt. This will continue to increase into Sunday
morning and afternoon to 50kt but become more confined to the
immediate NYC and eastern coastal terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Confidence is low in occurrence of MVFR this afternoon.
Currently MVFR is in TAFs 18Z-00Z, but should trends not agree
by 18Z routine TAFs, may opt to keep cigs/vsbys at IFR levels
for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.
Confidence is higher in IFR/LIFR tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night: IFR with showers. LLWS ramps down Sunday night.
Monday: Rain showers early, mainly east of NYC terminals with MVFR
to IFR possible. Rain showers taper off afternoon into night from
west to east. Conditions eventually return to VFR. Possible NW wind
gusts afternoon into early evening to 20 kt.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR in showers. W 10-15 kts, G 20-25 kts.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Visibilities have improved over the ocean and nearby waters, and
the sense fog advisory was allowed to expire.
SCA conditions expected on all waters through tonight.
Southerly flow then strengthens overnight and Sunday ahead of an
approaching frontal system. A Gale Watch has been issued for
all waters from 6AM Sunday through 6AM Monday. On the ocean, 35
to 40 kt gusts are possible with 10 to 13 foot seas. On all non
ocean waters, gusts will likely be closer to 35 kt. A cold front
moves through early Monday and winds quickly lower behind below
25 kt. Ocean seas likely liner aoa 5 ft into Tuesday. Winds on
the waters then remain below SCA levels thru midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system is expected to produce a widespread 1 to 2
inches of rain Sunday evening through Monday. The highest totals
are expected over eastern CT and LI, where localized amounts
could be as high as 2.5 to 3 inches. Heavy downpours could lead
to nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas,
especially Sunday night and Monday morning. While localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the overall risk is low.
No hydrologic impacts are expected thereafter thru late next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DR/MET
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BR/MW
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR