952
FXUS61 KOKX 160123
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
923 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches tonight and lifts across the area Sunday
morning. A strong cold approaches Sunday afternoon and evening and
moves across the region through Monday. High pressure returns
Tuesday and Wednesday. A fast moving frontal system moves across
the area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure may return
Friday into next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track this evening. High pressure remains offshore
through tonight, and weakens somewhat toward morning as a warm
front approaches from the south. Fog and drizzle are expected to
redevelop tonight, especially with the approach of the warm
front. While dense fog is not expected at this time, there is a
possibility of areas of dense fog toward daybreak Sunday
morning. Lift along with warm front also may bring some light
rain in addition to the drizzle. Temperatures will be non
diurnal, lowering this evening, and then rising through the
remainder of tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front moves north of the region early in the day Sunday,
and with the area warm sectored, once precipitation ends in the
morning, much of the rest of the day will be dry. Temperatures
will be nearly 15 degrees above normal across the region. With a
long southerly fetch low level moisture will be increasing
during the afternoon and into the evening, with precipitable
water values approaching 1 inch late in the day, and nearly 1.5
inches Sunday night, about as high as measured this time of
year. Increasing lift with a developing pre frontal trough will
lead to period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Add
some elevated instability and CAPE along with the lift will
lead to the potential of isolated thunderstorms inland, while a
strong marine influence to the east will limit instability.
Rainfall rates may be near 0.50 inches per hour at times, and
local flooding of urban and poor drainage areas will be
possible, and the entire region remains in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, and localized flash flooding cannot be ruled
out especially across the far eastern areas which will see
higher rainfall totals. These higher totals across the east will
be associated with the slower movement of the pre frontal and
cold front as waves of low pressure develop as the front moves
off shore. With the slower movement of the cold front, chances
of precipitation linger through the day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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Key Points: * A few lingering showers possible across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut Monday evening. * Dry conditions return late Monday night and should prevail through mid week. * Another frontal system moves across the area Thursday into Thursday night bringing the next chance for showers. * Temperatures look to average above through Thursday before trending near to slightly below normal to end the week. The cold front will continue moving offshore Monday evening. A wave of low pressure likely forms on the front which could help linger a few showers across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut in the evening. The front and associated wave should pass far enough offshore to bring an end to any showers by midnight across these areas. Otherwise, clouds will gradually clear from west to east through day break Tuesday. The upper trough axis pushes east Tuesday morning as an upper ridge builds over the northeast. The trough that passes offshore will become a cutoff low over the western Atlantic as it gets trapped beneath the upper ridge. The upper ridge will then slowly push east through Thursday as the next amplifying upper trough quickly approaches. At the surface, high pressure will be in control Tuesday and Wednesday. The frontal system associated with the aforementioned next upper trough will quickly move across the region Thursday into Thursday night. Have held onto a 50 percent chance for showers late Thursday/Thursday night as there are still timing and strength differences with the system. The NBM probabilities for observing greater than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period have fallen and are now generally less than 5 percent, which seems reasonable given the progressive nature of the modeled system. The front should be offshore to end the week. The associated upper trough may become a cutoff low near or just off the New England coast late Friday into the first half of the weekend as high pressure starts building in from the west. This could create a tight pressure gradient and lead to a windy Friday. NBM deterministic temperatures have trended cooler for Friday with at least modest cold advection and W-NW flow. Depending on how quick the offshore upper low departs will determine if the surface high can settle over the region next Saturday. Temperatures should trend closer to seasonal normals for next Saturday as the air mass starts to moderate.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A warm front moves through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west late Sunday. IFR/LIFR at most sites through the morning with low clouds, fog and drizzle. The NYC metros north/west may see some improvement to MVFR in the afternoon. Showers look to hold off until close to 00Z Mon. SE flow 10 kt or less tonight should become S 10-15 with some gusts up to 10 kt after warm fropa Sunday morning. By afternoon, speeds 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt will be possible, especially along the coast. LLWS expected late tonight as S winds increase to 40-45kt, then to 50+ kt in the afternoon mainly from the NYC metro terminals east. Up to 60kt LLWS possible at KJFK/KISP. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Unscheduled AMD likely to address changes in flight category tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday Night: IFR with showers. LLWS continues, then ramps own late. Monday: Showers with IFR/LIFR cond, tapering off in the afternoon. Improvement to MVFR from the NYC metros north/west late morning/early afternoon, KBDR/KISP 18Z, KGON 21Z. NW winds G20kt late afternoon/early evening. Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday night and Thursday morning: IFR/LIFR cigs possible especially along the coast. Thursday afternoon and night: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Main concern for tonight is potential of dense fog. Visibilities should lower this evening and could near 1 nm and potentially lower late tonight as a warm front approaches. A dense fog advisory may be needed late tonight. Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA levels across the waters tonight into early Sunday morning. An increasing southerly slow during Sunday and into Sunday night, ahead of an approaching frontal system will approach gale force gusts, especially over the outer ocean waters. Confidence in gale gusts across the remainder of the waters has lowered as a strong low level inversion will prevent the higher winds aloft from mixing to the water surface. However, with uncertainty will leave up the Gale Watch for all the waters at this time. A the cold front moves into the waters and waves of low pressure develop along the front late Sunday night toward Monday morning, winds and gusts will diminish and drop to less than SCA levels, with ocean seas remaining at SCA levels. Ocean seas will remain elevated at or above 5 ft Monday night through Thursday mainly due to lingering SE swells. Winds on all waters should be below SCA levels Monday night through Wednesday. The next chance for SCA winds will be Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY...
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A frontal system is expected to produce a widespread 1-2 inches of rain Sunday evening through Monday evening, with up to 2.25 inches across SE Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island. Localized higher amounts are possible, especially across the eastern areas. Heavy downpours could lead to nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas, especially Sunday night and Monday morning. While localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the overall risk is low. No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of next week.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from 6 AM EDT Sunday through late Sunday night for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/MET NEAR TERM...DS/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...BG MARINE...DS/MET HYDROLOGY...DS/MET