952
FXUS61 KOKX 160123
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
923 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches tonight and lifts across the area Sunday
morning. A strong cold approaches Sunday afternoon and evening and
moves across the region through Monday. High pressure returns
Tuesday and Wednesday. A fast moving frontal system moves across
the area Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure may return
Friday into next Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track this evening. High pressure remains offshore
through tonight, and weakens somewhat toward morning as a warm
front approaches from the south. Fog and drizzle are expected to
redevelop tonight, especially with the approach of the warm
front. While dense fog is not expected at this time, there is a
possibility of areas of dense fog toward daybreak Sunday
morning. Lift along with warm front also may bring some light
rain in addition to the drizzle. Temperatures will be non
diurnal, lowering this evening, and then rising through the
remainder of tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front moves north of the region early in the day Sunday,
and with the area warm sectored, once precipitation ends in the
morning, much of the rest of the day will be dry. Temperatures
will be nearly 15 degrees above normal across the region. With a
long southerly fetch low level moisture will be increasing
during the afternoon and into the evening, with precipitable
water values approaching 1 inch late in the day, and nearly 1.5
inches Sunday night, about as high as measured this time of
year. Increasing lift with a developing pre frontal trough will
lead to period of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Add
some elevated instability and CAPE along with the lift will
lead to the potential of isolated thunderstorms inland, while a
strong marine influence to the east will limit instability.
Rainfall rates may be near 0.50 inches per hour at times, and
local flooding of urban and poor drainage areas will be
possible, and the entire region remains in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, and localized flash flooding cannot be ruled
out especially across the far eastern areas which will see
higher rainfall totals. These higher totals across the east will
be associated with the slower movement of the pre frontal and
cold front as waves of low pressure develop as the front moves
off shore. With the slower movement of the cold front, chances
of precipitation linger through the day Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:
* A few lingering showers possible across eastern Long Island
and southeast Connecticut Monday evening.
* Dry conditions return late Monday night and should prevail
through mid week.
* Another frontal system moves across the area Thursday into
Thursday night bringing the next chance for showers.
* Temperatures look to average above through Thursday before
trending near to slightly below normal to end the week.
The cold front will continue moving offshore Monday evening. A wave
of low pressure likely forms on the front which could help linger a
few showers across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut in
the evening. The front and associated wave should pass far enough
offshore to bring an end to any showers by midnight across these
areas. Otherwise, clouds will gradually clear from west to east
through day break Tuesday.
The upper trough axis pushes east Tuesday morning as an upper ridge
builds over the northeast. The trough that passes offshore will
become a cutoff low over the western Atlantic as it gets trapped
beneath the upper ridge. The upper ridge will then slowly push east
through Thursday as the next amplifying upper trough quickly
approaches. At the surface, high pressure will be in control Tuesday
and Wednesday. The frontal system associated with the aforementioned
next upper trough will quickly move across the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Have held onto a 50 percent chance for showers late
Thursday/Thursday night as there are still timing and strength
differences with the system. The NBM probabilities for observing
greater than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period have fallen and are now
generally less than 5 percent, which seems reasonable given the
progressive nature of the modeled system.
The front should be offshore to end the week. The associated upper
trough may become a cutoff low near or just off the New England
coast late Friday into the first half of the weekend as high
pressure starts building in from the west. This could create a tight
pressure gradient and lead to a windy Friday. NBM deterministic
temperatures have trended cooler for Friday with at least modest
cold advection and W-NW flow. Depending on how quick the offshore
upper low departs will determine if the surface high can settle over
the region next Saturday. Temperatures should trend closer to
seasonal normals for next Saturday as the air mass starts to
moderate.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front moves through tonight. A cold front will approach
from the west late Sunday.
IFR/LIFR at most sites through the morning with low clouds, fog
and drizzle. The NYC metros north/west may see some improvement
to MVFR in the afternoon. Showers look to hold off until close
to 00Z Mon.
SE flow 10 kt or less tonight should become S 10-15 with some
gusts up to 10 kt after warm fropa Sunday morning. By afternoon,
speeds 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt will be possible, especially
along the coast.
LLWS expected late tonight as S winds increase to 40-45kt, then
to 50+ kt in the afternoon mainly from the NYC metro terminals
east. Up to 60kt LLWS possible at KJFK/KISP.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely to address changes in flight category
tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night: IFR with showers. LLWS continues, then ramps own
late.
Monday: Showers with IFR/LIFR cond, tapering off in the
afternoon. Improvement to MVFR from the NYC metros north/west
late morning/early afternoon, KBDR/KISP 18Z, KGON 21Z. NW winds
G20kt late afternoon/early evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday night and Thursday morning: IFR/LIFR cigs possible
especially along the coast.
Thursday afternoon and night: Chance of showers with MVFR cond
possible. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Main concern for tonight is potential of dense fog. Visibilities
should lower this evening and could near 1 nm and potentially
lower late tonight as a warm front approaches. A dense fog
advisory may be needed late tonight.
Otherwise, conditions should remain below SCA levels across the
waters tonight into early Sunday morning. An increasing
southerly slow during Sunday and into Sunday night, ahead of an
approaching frontal system will approach gale force gusts,
especially over the outer ocean waters. Confidence in gale gusts
across the remainder of the waters has lowered as a strong low
level inversion will prevent the higher winds aloft from mixing
to the water surface. However, with uncertainty will leave up
the Gale Watch for all the waters at this time. A the cold front
moves into the waters and waves of low pressure develop along
the front late Sunday night toward Monday morning, winds and
gusts will diminish and drop to less than SCA levels, with ocean
seas remaining at SCA levels.
Ocean seas will remain elevated at or above 5 ft Monday night
through Thursday mainly due to lingering SE swells. Winds on all
waters should be below SCA levels Monday night through
Wednesday. The next chance for SCA winds will be Thursday into
Thursday night as a cold front moves across the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system is expected to produce a widespread 1-2 inches
of rain Sunday evening through Monday evening, with up to 2.25
inches across SE Connecticut and the twin forks of Long Island.
Localized higher amounts are possible, especially across the
eastern areas. Heavy downpours could lead to nuisance flooding
in urban and poor drainage areas, especially Sunday night and
Monday morning. While localized flash flooding cannot be ruled
out, the overall risk is low.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from 6 AM EDT Sunday through late Sunday night for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET