807
FXUS61 KOKX 161627
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1227 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold approaches from the west this evening, moving
across the region Monday, before pushing offshore into Monday
night. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday. A fast
moving frontal system moves across the area Thursday into
Thursday night. High pressure may return Friday into next
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The bulk of the day appears dry with the region in the warm
sector ahead of the approaching attendant cold front. A few
periods of drizzle have been added to parts of NYC metro and the
interior as more moisture filters in, but odds look low on it
occurring, despite CAMs showing a little bit of it. A blustery
southerly wind develops by the early afternoon, with gusts
likely topping 35 mph. Kept 45-50 mph gusts out of the
forecast. Some 12Z CAMs were producing Wind Advisory gusts in
parts of NYC and Long Island as a strong 925mb LLJ develops, but
looks like much of this may not be able to mix down due to a
strong inversion in place.
Temperatures climb into the 60s away from the immediate coast
as the warm front passes north, or about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for mid March.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing lift with the pre frontal trough leads to period of
moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Rain develops from west
to east this evening as a stream of deep moisture flows north
ahead of the frontal boundary. In fact, PWATs approach 1.50
inches into tonight, or about as high as measured locally this
time of year. Weak elevated instability could lead to a few
isolated rumbles of thunder early, though generally west of the
Hudson River as marine influence to the east helps to limit
this potential.
In addition, a rather potent 60 to 70 kt LLJ at 925 mb slides
overhead this evening, though the strongly inverted profile in
the low levels will likely prevent the core of these winds from
reaching the surface. More likely, occasional gusts 30 to 40
mph develop by late afternoon and continue thru this evening,
with perhaps a few isolated gusts above 40 mph, especially with
any low topped convection that can work in and help to mix winds
down.
Rainfall rates may approach or exceed half an inch per hour at
times this evening, and local flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas is possible. The entire region remains in a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall, though the overall flash
flood risk appears to be low. QPF ranges from around an inch for
locales north and west of NYC, to around two inches for eastern
LI and CT. The higher totals across the east will be associated
with the slower movement of the pre frontal and cold front as
waves of low pressure develop as the front moves offshore.
As the cold front continues advancing offshore, a secondary
wave of low pressure likely develops along the front and enhances
rainfall across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut
Monday. Showers may persist in these areas thru Monday afternoon
before working far enough east to allow conditions to start to
dry out. Elsewhere, expecting the bulk of the steadiest rain to
end by midday, if not sooner, with a just a few spotty showers
possible thereafter.The front and associated wave should pass
far enough offshore to bring an end to any showers by midnight
across these areas. Otherwise, clouds will gradually clear from
west to east through daybreak Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Dry conditions return and prevail through midweek.
* Another frontal system moves across the area Thursday into
Thursday night bringing the next chance for showers.
* Temperatures look to average above through Thursday before
trending near to slightly below normal to end the week.
The upper trough axis pushes east Tuesday morning as an upper ridge
builds over the northeast. The trough that passes offshore will
become a cutoff low over the western Atlantic as it gets trapped
beneath the upper ridge. The upper ridge will then slowly push east
through Thursday as the next amplifying upper trough quickly
approaches. At the surface, high pressure will be in control Tuesday
and Wednesday. The frontal system associated with the aforementioned
next upper trough will quickly move across the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Have held onto a 50 percent chance for showers late
Thursday/Thursday night as there are still timing and strength
differences with the system. The NBM probabilities for observing
greater than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period have fallen and are now
generally less than 5 percent, which seems reasonable given the
progressive nature of the modeled system.
The front should be offshore to end the week. The associated upper
trough may become a cutoff low near or just off the New England
coast late Friday into the first half of the weekend as high
pressure starts building in from the west. This could create a tight
pressure gradient and lead to a windy Friday. NBM deterministic
temperatures have trended cooler for Friday with at least modest
cold advection and W-NW flow. Depending on how quick the offshore
upper low departs will determine if the surface high can settle over
the region next Saturday. Temperatures should trend closer to
seasonal normals for next Saturday as the air mass starts to
moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front was moving through the region at mid morning, and
was near the Connecticut coast. The front will likely be north
of the region by midday. A cold front will approach from the
west this evening and move through by Monday morning.
South of the warm front winds have shifted to the south and
conditions have improved to MVFR, while in the vicinity of the
front IFR and LIFR remains, with MVFR expected by 16Z/17Z.
Conditions lower to IFR/LIFR once again late this afternoon into
this evening for all terminals. Rain expected to move in from
the west, reaching the NYC terminals around 00Z and eastern
terminals through 04Z. Moderate to locally heavy at times, rain
will continue through the night. Thunder is possible, but not
confident enough in occurrence to include in the TAFs at this
time. Showers gradually come to an end Monday morning into the
afternoon.
Southerly winds have increased in the warm air with gusts
develops and reaching 25 to 30 kt, a few higher gusts up to 35
kt are possible, mainly this afternoon. S winds 15-20G25-30kt
continue through this evening and slowly drop through the night
so that gusts end by around 6-10Z Monday from west to east.
WInds then shift out of the W and NW from 12-16Z Monday.
LLWS today as S winds at 2kft are 40-50 kt as seen on VAD winds
at the terminal dopplers and OKX, and this is mainly at the
coastal terminals, with wind shear 5 to 10 kt lower inland. Up
to 60kt LLWS possible at KJFK/KISP this afternoon and evening.
LLWS ends from west to east tonight through early Monday
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely through the TAF period to address
changes in flight categories and timing of rain.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Showers with IFR/LIFR cond, tapering off in the
afternoon. Improvement to MVFR from the NYC metros north/west
late morning/early afternoon, KBDR/KISP 18Z, KGON 21Z. NW winds
G20kt late afternoon/early evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday night and Thursday morning: IFR/LIFR cigs possible
especially along the coast.
Thursday afternoon and night: Chance of showers with MVFR cond
possible. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Satellite data and coastal webcams continue to indicate
visibilities are likely at or under 1 nm across much of the
coastal waters and maintained a Dense Fog Advisory until 14Z
Sun on all waters. Gradual improvement expected thereafter into
late morning.
Otherwise, increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching
cold front will develop 25 kt to 30 kt gusts on all waters by
late this morning, then persisting thru this evening. Small
Craft Advisory was issued for all waters. Gale force gusts are
possible, though frequency is likely more occasional. Ocean seas
build as high 10 to 12 ft into this evening. As the cold front
moves through early Monday and pushes east of local waters,
winds and gusts will diminish and drop to less than SCA levels.
Ocean seas remain elevated at or above 5 ft Monday night through
Thursday mainly due to lingering SE swells.
Winds on all waters should be below SCA levels Monday night
through Wednesday. The next chance for SCA winds will be
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves across the
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system is expected to produce a widespread 1-2 inches
of rain later today through Monday evening. Localized higher
amounts are possible, especially across eastern Long Island and
southeastern Connecticut.
Heavy downpours with this system could lead to nuisance
flooding in urban and poor drainage areas, particularly late
this evening and overnight into Monday morning. While localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the overall risk is low.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...BR/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET/MW
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR