251
FXUS61 KOKX 161819
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
219 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold approaches from the west this evening, moving
across the region Monday, before pushing offshore into Monday
night. High pressure returns Tuesday and Wednesday. A fast
moving frontal system moves across the area Thursday into
Thursday night. High pressure may return Friday into next
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The bulk of the day appears dry with the region in the warm
sector ahead of the approaching attendant cold front. A few
periods of drizzle have been added to parts of NYC metro and the
interior as more moisture filters in, but odds look low on it
occurring, despite CAMs showing a little bit of it. A blustery
southerly wind develops by the early afternoon, with gusts
likely topping 35 mph. Kept 45-50 mph gusts out of the
forecast. Some 12Z CAMs were producing Wind Advisory gusts in
parts of NYC and Long Island as a strong 925mb LLJ develops, but
looks like much of this may not be able to mix down due to a
strong inversion in place.
Temperatures climb into the 60s away from the immediate coast
as the warm front passes north, or about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for mid March.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing lift with the pre frontal trough leads to period of
moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Rain develops from west
to east this evening as a stream of deep moisture flows north
ahead of the frontal boundary. In fact, PWATs approach 1.50
inches into tonight, or about as high as measured locally this
time of year. Weak elevated instability could lead to a few
isolated rumbles of thunder early, though generally west of the
Hudson River as marine influence to the east helps to limit
this potential.
In addition, a rather potent 60 to 70 kt LLJ at 925 mb slides
overhead this evening, though the strongly inverted profile in
the low levels will likely prevent the core of these winds from
reaching the surface. More likely, occasional gusts 30 to 40
mph develop by late afternoon and continue thru this evening,
with perhaps a few isolated gusts above 40 mph, especially with
any low topped convection that can work in and help to mix winds
down.
Rainfall rates may approach or exceed half an inch per hour at
times this evening, and local flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas is possible. The entire region remains in a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall, though the overall flash
flood risk appears to be low. QPF ranges from around an inch for
locales north and west of NYC, to around two inches for eastern
LI and CT. The higher totals across the east will be associated
with the slower movement of the pre frontal and cold front as
waves of low pressure develop as the front moves offshore.
As the cold front continues advancing offshore, a secondary
wave of low pressure likely develops along the front and enhances
rainfall across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut
Monday. Showers may persist in these areas thru Monday afternoon
before working far enough east to allow conditions to start to
dry out. Elsewhere, expecting the bulk of the steadiest rain to
end by midday, if not sooner, with a just a few spotty showers
possible thereafter.The front and associated wave should pass
far enough offshore to bring an end to any showers by midnight
across these areas. Otherwise, clouds will gradually clear from
west to east through daybreak Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Dry conditions return and prevail through midweek.
* Another frontal system moves across the area Thursday into
Thursday night bringing the next chance for showers.
* Temperatures look to average above through Thursday before
trending near to slightly below normal to end the week.
The upper trough axis pushes east Tuesday morning as an upper ridge
builds over the northeast. The trough that passes offshore will
become a cutoff low over the western Atlantic as it gets trapped
beneath the upper ridge. The upper ridge will then slowly push east
through Thursday as the next amplifying upper trough quickly
approaches. At the surface, high pressure will be in control Tuesday
and Wednesday. The frontal system associated with the aforementioned
next upper trough will quickly move across the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Have held onto a 50 percent chance for showers late
Thursday/Thursday night as there are still timing and strength
differences with the system. The NBM probabilities for observing
greater than 1 inch in a 12 or 24 period have fallen and are now
generally less than 5 percent, which seems reasonable given the
progressive nature of the modeled system.
The front should be offshore to end the week. The associated upper
trough may become a cutoff low near or just off the New England
coast late Friday into the first half of the weekend as high
pressure starts building in from the west. This could create a tight
pressure gradient and lead to a windy Friday. NBM deterministic
temperatures have trended cooler for Friday with at least modest
cold advection and W-NW flow. Depending on how quick the offshore
upper low departs will determine if the surface high can settle over
the region next Saturday. Temperatures should trend closer to
seasonal normals for next Saturday as the air mass starts to
moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure and a cold front approach from the west into this
evening with the cold front moving into the terminals late
tonight into Monday morning as a wave of low pressure develops
on the front. The frontal wave and cold front move east early
Monday afternoon.
Conditions vary across the region with IFR along the immediate
south shore coast, and MVFR most other locations, and even local
VFR inland. Conditions become widespread IFR by late afternoon,
and remain IFR/LIFR through tonight with showers developing this
evening, with a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. There is
also a chance of thunder from about 02Z to 07Z at the NYC metro
terminals, however, chances and confidence are low, and have
not included in the forecast. Showers gradually come to an end
Monday morning into the afternoon with VFR late Monday
afternoon.
Southerly winds, with gusts 25 to 30 kt, continue through this
evening, with a few peak gusts to around 35 kt possible along
the coast this afternoon. As the cold front and frontal wave
move into the region, winds and gusts will diminish, and may for
a time evening become light and variable. Timing of the
diminishing winds is uncertain. As the front passes east, winds
sift to the west and then NW/N, becoming gusty late Monday.
LLWS continues with S winds at 2kft 50-60 kt into late tonight,
and ends from west to east 05Z to 13Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely through the TAF period to address
changes in flight categories and timing of rain, and wind
shifts.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: Generally MVFR with showers ending west to
east, then becoming VFR, except at KGON where IFR and showers
continue into late afternoon, ending early evening. NW/N winds
G15-20 kt late afternoon/early evening.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday night and Thursday morning: IFR/LIFR cigs possible
especially along the coast.
Thursday afternoon and night: Chance of showers with MVFR cond
possible. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt, winds shifting to W
during the evening.
Friday: VFR at the NYC terminals and west, MVFR/IFR east with
showers ending late in the day, then becoming VFR. NW wind 15-20
kt G20-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Satellite data and coastal webcams continue to indicate
visibilities are likely at or under 1 nm across much of the
coastal waters and maintained a Dense Fog Advisory until 14Z
Sun on all waters. Gradual improvement expected thereafter into
late morning.
Otherwise, increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching
cold front will develop 25 kt to 30 kt gusts on all waters by
late this morning, then persisting thru this evening. Small
Craft Advisory was issued for all waters. Gale force gusts are
possible, though frequency is likely more occasional. Ocean seas
build as high 10 to 12 ft into this evening. As the cold front
moves through early Monday and pushes east of local waters,
winds and gusts will diminish and drop to less than SCA levels.
Ocean seas remain elevated at or above 5 ft Monday night through
Thursday mainly due to lingering SE swells.
Winds on all waters should be below SCA levels Monday night
through Wednesday. The next chance for SCA winds will be
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves across the
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system is expected to produce a widespread 1-2 inches
of rain later today through Monday evening. Localized higher
amounts are possible, especially across eastern Long Island and
southeastern Connecticut.
Heavy downpours with this system could lead to nuisance
flooding in urban and poor drainage areas, particularly late
this evening and overnight into Monday morning. While localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, the overall risk is low.
No hydrologic impacts are expected Monday night through the end of
next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...BR/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR