699
FXUS61 KOKX 171508
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1108 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves off the coast today, with a large high pressure
ridge gradually building across tonight. The high settles over the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night and remains into Wednesday. A fast
moving frontal system moves across Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure begins to build back in on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon and shift offshore by late in the day. Steadier rainfall will be limited to eastern LI into early afternoon. Still a chance of showers elsewhere during the daytime as an upper trough axis remains to our west. Breaks of sunshine developing mainly west of LI and CT, and temperatures will continue to run above normal with high temperatures mostly 55-60. The upper level trough axis doesn`t really get through until 06z or shortly thereafter, so still can`t rule out a shower over CT or LI this evening. Further clearing should ensue quickly from west to east behind the passage of the trough axis. Temperatures bottoming out primarily in the 30s across the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Look for any clouds across far eastern sections to get off the coast during the morning. A rather expansive high pressure ridge will build in from the west. On a dry northerly flow look for complete sunshine and mild temperatures with enough of a synoptic flow to likely prevent any real widespread sea breeze / ocean diurnal induced wind. Look for mainly middle 50s to lower half of the 60s for daytime max temperatures, a good 10 degrees or so above normal in most places. With the high settling right over the region Tuesday night look for clear skies and light to calm winds. This should result in a fair amount of radiational cooling. Lows will range from middle 30s across far northern interior and rural sections, to the middle 40s across much of the NYC metro. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Points: * Dry conditions will prevail Wednesday into Thursday morning, and then again next weekend with temperatures mainly above average. * Showers become likely late Thursday and Thursday night along a fast moving frontal system. * Breezy and cooler conditions briefly return Friday. The modeling has remained relatively consistent over the last few days with the overall pattern progression into next weekend. The upper trough that slowly moves overhead on Monday will slide offshore Tuesday morning. This is in response to a build upper ridge. The upper low is still expected to get trapped beneath the ridge over the western Atlantic into Wednesday. This will not directly impact our weather, but could enhance subsidence with the ridging aloft later Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridging pushes offshore on Thursday ahead of the next upper level trough, which likely lifts over the area Thursday night into Friday. The ensemble means then indicate a mostly zonal flow for next weekend. Surface high pressure will be in control to begin the period, before moving offshore on Thursday. The aforementioned upper trough will send a fast moving frontal system across the area late Thursday into Thursday night. The latest model consensus indicates most of the daytime Thursday will be dry with just a chance of showers late in the afternoon. The cold front sweeps across the area Thursday night with the likelihood of showers. Low pressure may develop along the front as it passes to our east and help add more lift and moisture for the continuation of showers into early Friday morning. Guidance has come into better agreement with this scenario, but differ on the intensity of the low. The progressive pattern would favor the low to quickly push off the New England coast Friday morning. The NBM probabilities for greater than an inch of rain in a 12 or 24 hour period Thursday into Thursday night remain low and under 10 percent, consistent with the speed of the system. The potential of low pressure on the front may bring a possibility of some wet snow flakes mixing in well inland as the system pulls away and draws colder air southward. Breezy and cooler conditions are expected on Friday under strong cold advection and a W-NW flow. Temperatures look to remain in the mid and upper 40s for highs which are slightly below average for March 21st. Winds will likely gust 25-35 mph. The pressure gradient should relax Friday night with high pressure returning for the remainder of the weekend. Have kept the forecast dry next weekend with a mainly zonal flow aloft. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front and wave of low pressure along it was moving through eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island at 14Z, and will move east of the region this afternoon. High pressure to the west gradually builds in tonight through Tuesday. Conditions were generally IFR and locally LIFR this morning, especially east of NYC, where rain showers continue. Conditions will be gradually improving late this morning west where scattered showers will be possible, and not until mid to late afternoon to the east, and possibly not until 22Z at KGON. Category improvement will be slow to occur, with a return to VFR at the NJ terminals around 18Z to 20Z, and east later in the afternoon or early evening. Clear skies are expected late tonight. Winds have diminished as the frontal wave moved into the area this morning, and direction will remain variable for several hours before a W/NW or NNW flow becomes established into late morning or early afternoon. Speeds increase as well, toward 15G25 kt by late afternoon. The gusts subside overnight into Tuesday morning, though speeds linger around 10 kt into the day. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Unscheduled AMD likely to address changes in flight categories and timing of rain and wind shifts. LIFR cigs and vsbys possible at times this morning. Timing of category changes may be off by a couple of hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. Thursday: IFR/LIFR cigs possible in the morning mainly E of the NYC metros. Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt, winds shifting W during the evening. Friday: VFR at the NYC terminals and west, MVFR/IFR east with showers ending late in the day, becoming VFR throughout. NW wind 15-20 kt with G20-30kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Winds have come down for the time being, but the winds do come back up some for this afternoon and this evening as a cold front will push from west to east through the waters today. Small craft advisories will be in effect for the ocean for a prolonged period, and for a shorter time for NY Harbor later today and this evening. The winds will switch to the NNW, with a NNW flow prevailing later today into tonight, and into Tuesday. With elevated seas on the ocean small craft seas are expected to continue through much of the day Tuesday. The winds will become rather light Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as high pressure settles directly over the waters. Winds on all waters should remain below SCA levels Wednesday and through much of Thursday. Initially ocean seas will be around 4 ft, and then ocean seas become slightly more elevated at or above 5 ft late Wednesday night into Thursday mainly due to lingering SE swells. The next chance for SCA winds will be Thursday night behind a cold front passage. There is also potential for gales on the waters on Friday under a strong NW flow and cold advection over the warmer waters. Seas will remain elevated to end the week. && .HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/DS NEAR TERM...JC/JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...DR/MET MARINE...JC/JE/DS HYDROLOGY...JE/DS